The UHT’s Alternative Bets: From Russia with love

MIGHT as well be hanged for a sheep than a lamb and I’ve looked at this up, down, inside-out and all around – all the moves we’re looking forward to in this year’s Strictly – and I am offering you a very solid Under/Over/BTTS treble in the Russian second tier this Saturday. It pays a little higher than I've been aiming at recently.

Luck has not been on our side so far, but maybe today Luch will be. I started off in the Russian FNL looking at Luch, who look cast-iron – I’m not superstitious, so, I’m happy to curse it – for Unders today.

But as I searched for something else to tempt everyone with, other games in this league suggested themselves and you’ll be pleased to know I’m looking at Overs and BTTS in the other two games.

There are two very decent odds-against singles here for anyone who hates Unders.

SKA Khabarovsk v PFC Sochi  (KO 9am)

In this game, SKA’s home record is great for scoring and conceding.  Take out Luch, with whom they shared a goalfree Saturday morning recently, and Armavir, the worst team in the league, whom they beat 3-0, the last three homes have been BTTS, as have all five of their aways.

Sochi have scored in every away game they’ve played this season, and conceded in four of those five.  The only away game they didn’t concede?  Against terrible Armavir. BTTS is Evens at bet365.

FK Tyumen v Luch Energia (KO 12pm)

Tyumen  Home P7  O2  U5  Avg GPG 2.1

Luch Away P3  O0  U3  Avg GPG 0.3

I zeroed in on this when I saw Luch had played 9 games home and away, and they were F4 A4, obviously all under, which is bad enough, but away, they’re P3  F0  A1.

Tyumen played 6 games at home (and none away) in August – the first five came in Under.  They’ve subsequently played one game home and away, both going over, but against the top two scoring sides in the league.

If this doesn’t come in Under, I… will still laugh, but that very bitter laugh I’ve become increasingly accustomed to in the last couple of weeks.

Under 2.5 goals is 1-2 at bet365.

Zenit St Petersberg 2 v Chimski Moskovska  (KO 2pm)

Zenit 2 have been terrible, and maybe some of the guys from the first team not away with the Russian national side could do with a game this weekend, but a home record of P5  L5  F4  A13, is fairly obviously as bad as it could get.  All of them have been Over, though, and note that Zenit have scored in 4.

Chimski’s away record is P5  W3  D0  L2  F6  A6, but that includes beating Luch 1-0, and we know how tight they are at the back, and how unlikely they are to score, plus in that same run of away games they’ve played Shinnick Yaroslavi, winning 1-0 away.  Shinnick’s home record is P5  F3  A2.

So, Chimski can knock them in against tough opponents, and I expect them to score at least 2 here, but they also concede against most opponents making any kind of effort as we see from the goals against in the games not against Luch or Shinnick – 6 in the other 3 away games.

Overs is offering us something here. Wahaay! Over 2.5 goals is 5-4 at bet365.

Recommended treble

• SKA Khabarovsk v PFC Sochi  (Sat, 9am) BTTS
• FK Tyumen v Luch Energia (Sat, 12pm) Under 2.5 goals
• Zenit Petersberg 2 v Chimski Moskovska  (Sat, 2pm) Over 2.5 Goals
• (6-1, bet365)

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