The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach this week for The Players Championship, widely regarded as one of the strongest events in golf, and often feels like the showcase opener to ‘major season'.
Played at the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, the illustrious tournament combines one of the deepest fields in golf with one of the most volatile layouts on the schedule. Water is in play on almost every hole, and the closing stretch, culminating in the famous island-green 17th, regularly produces dramatic swings in fortune.
While the event was moved back to March several years ago, the winning profile has become clearer since then. Elite tee-to-green golf tends to rise to the top, with the majority of recent winners arriving in strong form and often possessing major-winning pedigree.
With a stacked field once again assembled, another chapter looks set to unfold at one of golf’s best yet most unpredictable venues.
The Players Championship 2026 key information, prize money and how to watch
The Players Championship is one of the PGA Tour’s flagship events and annually attracts one of the strongest fields in the sport.
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass measures around 7,352 yards and plays as a par-72.
Designed by the renowned Pete Dye, the course is known for its strategic demands rather than raw length, with narrow landing areas, small greens and water hazards shaping decision-making throughout the round.
Water is in play on 17 holes, and the course features 92 bunkers, creating a layout where discipline and precision are essential.
- Venue: Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA
- Dates: Tuesday 12th March to Sunday 15th March
- Total Prize Purse: Approximately £18.7 million
- Winner's Prize Money: Approximately £3.4 million
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Golf, Sky Sports Main Event
- Broadcast Times:
Thursday, Friday and Sunday – From 11:30am
Saturday – From 13:30pm - Tee Times: Can be found here
If you're new to golf betting, check out our guide on how to pick a winner when betting on golf using statistics, form and course history
What does it take to win at TPC Sawgrass? Key statistics and angles
TPC Sawgrass remains one of the most volatile venues on the PGA Tour calendar. With water lurking throughout the course and small greens, there is a higher degree of variance than at most tournaments.
Despite that unpredictability, a clear pattern has emerged since the tournament returned to March – elite tee-to-green golf wins here.
Four of the last six champions led the field in tee-to-green performance for the week, while none of those winners gained more than +1.6 strokes putting. In other words, Sawgrass typically rewards pure ball striking rather than relying on an unsustainably hot putter.
Approach play remains the most influential metric, but the tiny greens can also elevate the importance of short-game skill. Strokes gained around-the-green have been nearly as impactful as driving performance in recent renewals.
Recent trends also highlight the importance of arriving in form. The vast majority of winners recorded a top-five finish earlier in the same calendar year and had already demonstrated comfort at Sawgrass with at least one prior top-25 finish.
Since the event moved back to March, the winners’ circle has also leaned towards established champions, often players with major titles already on their resume.
Key Statistics to win at TPC Sawgrass:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par-4 Scoring
- Par-5 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proxmity
- Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green
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Correlated Courses to consider:
Pete Dye designs frequently show crossover form with Sawgrass, particularly venues that reward accuracy and strategic play, such as:
- Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage
- TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship
- TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic
- TPC Stadium Course at La Quinta – American Express
Beyond Dye venues, several other courses have produced consistent links with Sawgrass results:
- TPC Southwind – FedEx St. Jude Championship
- Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship
- Waialae Country Club – Sony Open
- TPC Scottsdale – Phoenix Open
- Riveira Country Club – Genesis Invitational
These venues tend to reward similar skillsets – precise iron play, strategic course management, similar green types and complexes, and strong par-4 scoring.
The Players Championship 2026 Betting Tips and Predictions
In terms of the betting odds, Scottie Scheffler heads the market as the 4/1 favourite as he attempts to add a third Players title to his resume.
He is followed by Rory McIlroy at 12/1, who arrives with a slight injury question after withdrawing from last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, though he felt more precautionary than anything and it would be a surprise to not see him defend the title here this week.
As mentioned, the winner profile has leaned heavily towards elite players, often those with major championships already under their belt, since the event returned to March.
With that in mind, the selections this week focus on proven top-tier performers who arrive in excellent form and possess the tee-to-green quality required to conquer Sawgrass.
Collin Morikawa – 22/1 each-way (6 places)
Collin Morikawa arrives as arguably one of the most in-form players in the field.
The two-time major champion followed his victory at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a seventh-place finish at Riviera (Genesis) before adding another top-five last week at Bay Hill. That level of consistent high-end ball striking is exactly what tends to translate at Sawgrass.
While his course record here is modest on paper, he has still posted two top-15 finishes, which aligns with the historical trend that winners usually have prior experience at the venue.
Statistically, he also fits the profile perfectly – Morikawa currently ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach this season (third in this field), and also sits fifth in par-5 scoring average, trailing only Jake Knapp, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Min Woo Lee.
With elite iron play, strong scoring metrics and excellent recent form, he looks a natural contender to add The Players to his growing resume.
Bet Morikawa to win The Players at 22/1 with six places on offer at StarSports
Ludvig Aberg – 28/1 each-way (7 places)
Like Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg arrives in superb form after finishing third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week.
The Swede ranked second in SG: Approach at Bay Hill and fifth for Greens in Regulation, reinforcing just how sharp his iron play currently is. On the season, he sits fourth on the PGA Tour for proximity to the hole, second-best among players in this field.
He also already has positive experience here, finishing eighth here on his professional course debut in 2024.
Perhaps most significantly, Aberg is a local resident in Ponte Vedra Beach and regularly practices at TPC Sawgrass, giving him a level of familiarity that few other players possess.
The 2025 Genesis Invitational champion feels like a major winner in waiting, so he could follow in Cam Smith's footsteps by clinching one after winning here, and with The Masters soon on the horizon, that could well be the place to do it.
With elite ball striking, strong current form and local knowledge of the course, he looks well placed to challenge for one of golf’s most prestigious titles.
Bet Aberg to win The Players at 28/1 with seven places on offer at BetMGM
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Min Woo Lee – 40/1 each-way (8 places)
I was tempted to go back to Sepp Straka again this week, but his Sunday collapse last week has put me off slightly. Having already backed him three times this year, watching him finally win would sting more than most.
Instead, I’m happy to side with Min Woo Lee, who is trending nicely into form and arrives at a venue that should suit game.
Lee’s short game is a particular strength, ranking 15th on the PGA Tour in SG: Around-The-Green, which is a key attribute around the tiny, tricky surfaces at TPC Sawgrass.
He’s also shown he can contend here before, as the Australian was co-leader at the halfway stage in 2025, and in the year prior, he sat second after 54 holes, suggesting the Stadium Course is clearly to his liking.
His recent form is also impressive. Lee arrives this week after a 6th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he carded four rounds under par and ranked 5th for SG: Approach. Before that, he was T12 at the Genesis and runner-up at Pebble.
Statistically, he ticks several key boxes for Sawgrass. Lee currently sits 4th on the PGA Tour for Par-5 Scoring Average and 13th for Par-4 Scoring, two metrics that repeatedly show up in the winner profiles here.
If he continues striking the ball as he has over the last few weeks, Lee looks more than capable of putting himself into the mix again on Sunday.
Bet Min Woo to win The Players at 40/1 with eight places on offer at Fitzdares
Ryo Hitsatsune – 160/1 each-way (10 places)
Despite the obvious elite-profile trend of winners at The Players Championship, I’m still keen to include a long shot in the staking plan, and Ryo Hisatsune could offer some serious value at 160/1.
The 23-year-old has quietly been putting together an encouraging set of results on courses that correlate nicely with TPC Sawgrass. He finished T3 at the Wyndham Championship in 2024, added a T5 at the Valero Texas Open in 2025, and posted a top-10 earlier this season at TPC Scottsdale, the host of the WM Phoenix Open.
Hisatsune also showed his ability to compete in strong fields when finishing runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open, alongside Si Woo Kim – a player who historically thrives at Sawgrass as the youngest-ever winner here. That result marked his third top-10 of the 2026 season, highlighting a campaign that has largely flown under the radar.
The young Japanese star is performing at an elite level tee to green (10th on the PGA Tour for SG: Tee-to-Green). His main weakness has been the putter, which has often prevented him from converting strong ball-striking weeks into a genuine run when in contention.
Of course, it would be a surprise to see him beat an elite name to the trophy, but TPC Sawgrass has seen all sorts of player types contend and win.
If Hisatsune continues his excellent iron play, there’s every chance he can push for at least a place finish, particularly with ten places available.
It could also be worth keeping him in mind for the first-round leader market, especially if the draw lines up favourably with weather conditions.
Bet Hitsatsune to win The Players at 160/1 with ten places on offer at Bet365
Lewis joined as News and Features Editor in July 2025, having previously held senior roles at Snack Media and GRV Media. He has also written extensively as a football and golf tipster for WeLoveBetting. He is also a proud Aldershot Town supporter.
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