TWO wonderful weeks of tennis action start on Monday and hopefully by the end of it Andy Murray is celebrating his second Wimbledon title.
The Scot is 11-4 second favourite at William Hill behind world No.1 Novak Djokovic but likes the grass more than the Serb and reckons he's in the best form of his life.
Murray did well to reach the French Open semis where he pushed Djokovic to five sets then dominated as he won Queen's for a fourth time.
The top two are due to meet in the Final if they go that far and while Murray is perceived to have the tougher draw with potential meetings against Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer it's Djokovic – no bigger than 7-5 at sportingbet to retain his crown – whose early matches are much more difficult including a first-round clash with the tricky, big-serving Philipp Kohlschreiber.
An opener couldn't be any tougher and I've even seen some tennis experts predict a win for the German at 16-1 with BetVictor. For me that's a leap too far against the defending champion but he could win a set and over 3.5 sets at 2-1 with bet365 is my pick.
In the women's singles there's only one player I want to back and that's Serena Williams as she tries to win the third leg in a Grand Slam bid.
On her game the USA star is impossible to beat at Wimbledon and the fact she won the French Open despite being sick says it all.
Williams is a best 7-4 at Ladbrokes and William Hill with defending champion Petra Kvitova second favourites at 4-1 with 888sport.
She is the only player to beat Williams this season and if she can conquer her mental deficiencies she can make the final again.
If you're backing anyone else do it eachway. Best of the rest look to be Lucie Safarova at 33-1 with sportingbet or Eastbourne winner Angelique Kerber at 25-1 with Ladbrokes and bet365.
I'll have a look at Monday's matches in the morning and see if I can come back with anything I like.
Recommended Bets
Murray to win Wimbledon
(11-4, William Hill)
Djokovic v Kohlschreiber over 3.5 sets
(2-1, bet365)
William to win Wimbledon
(7-4, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Kerber ew to win Wimbledon
(25-1, Ladbrokes, bet365)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Re posting these from other general Sunday sports thread – as this is the Wimbledon thread :-)
Wimbledon Tournament & Quarter Picks
And Murray to win Winbledon 11/4 w/hill (super strong)
4 points
Grigor Dimitrov to win his Quarter 8/1 w/hill(strong)
6 points
A Radwanska to win her Quarter 5/1 paddy/p(super Strong)
6 points
Lucie Safarova to win her Quarter 6/1 32red (Strong)
4 points
Angelina Kerber to win her Quarter 3/1 stan/j (Medium)
3 points
Re posting – as above seeing as this is the Tennis thread;
Wimbledon
Mondays mens tips
Klizan to beat Verdasco 11/4
Paire to beat Youzhny 2/1
Wimbledone
Mondays womens tips
M Puig 2-0 v Niculescu 4/1 nap
M Puig to beat Niculescu 2/1 nb
cheers clueless
De Niro – Think the Paire match is on Tuesday …
Wimbledon 2015.
Ladies’ singles
Quarter final predictions:
Serena v Bencic
Sharapova v Stephens
Kerber v Lisicki
Keys v Kvitova
Semis:
Serena v Sharapova
Kerber v Kvitova
Serena v Kvitova
Outrights
I had originally gone with Safarova as my favourite pick for Wimbledon, but the more and more I look at the draw the worse and worse hers looks. She starts against very handy grasscourter in Alison Riske. The next round against Hsieh should be much easier, but then Stepens, Pliskova and Maria wait for her before she even gets to Serena. That’s incredibly tough, and while I think she has a decent enough chance in all of those matchups, expecting her to string them all together is another matter. For that reason I’m going to leave her off these tips, but I did suggest her a while ago and backed her at the time, so she is very much still in my thoughts and one to keep an eye on.
Despite having picked her to make the final above, I am steering clear of Serena. She was my shortest priced outright pick at the French, and she duly won. But 3/1 Serena is a lot better than a 7/4 Serena, and I have enough nagging doubts around her to make me stay away.
This is the WTA, so all of us tipping this fortnight know we’re probably in for a topsy turvy time. It’s as easy to look like a fool as look like a genius, so let’s all be nice to each other and keep the stakes sensible!
Kvitova @ 11/2
I would really like a slightly larger price for someone as volatile as Petra, but she’s so good on this surface and has every chance of at least making the final to defend her title if she can keep her focus. The early rounds look pretty easy for her, and give her a good chance of building up a head of steam before she meets Radwanska. That match will not be a given by any means, and Keys could prove tricky after that if they both progress. Still, you can’t look past her in search of someone well suited to the surface, and her form this year, with the odd (and profitable!) exception, has been good. My shortest priced pick, that doesn’t mean I’ll be putting a huge stake on her by any means.
Venus Williams
100/1
Looking back on Petra’s second Wimbledon title last year, it’s impossible for me not to think about what might have been if Venus had edged her out in the third round. Both women were superb as she fell 5-7, 7-6, 7-5, and it really could have gone the other way. Venus has proven in Aukland and Melbourne that she still has what it takes to compete with the best when conditions really suit her game. They should do here, and, other than the rather large exception of sister Serena’s presence, has a draw that suits her too. Brengle, Erakovic and Errani will be cannon fodder if Venus brings her very best, and while it may be a bit optimistic to think she can beat Serena after that, there have been enough cracks in the world number 1s armour in recent times for me to want to look beyond her.
Maria Sharapova
13/1
Talking of looking elsewhere and manageable draws, Maria has an excellent chance here to go well. I think she could be in for al test in her first round match against Joanna Konta, but assuming she gets through that she has a great opportunity to play her way into form while moving deep into the draw. Her title defence in Paris was a letdown, but her form before that was pretty good, and only perpetual bogeyman Serena could stop her Down Under in the Aussie open.
Strangely, Maria may even consider clay her favourite surface now, but the fast grass of Wimbledon suits her flat, heavy hitting no end, and when Maria starts hitting a groove she takes some stopping. Konta, Wang, Gavrilova and Petkovic is a pretty decent projected route as far as making it to a Grand Slam quarter final goes. This is kind of an illogical pick for me as I find it hard to see her beating Serena, who I’m projecting her to meet in the semis. But I have wild hopes of Serena getting beaten by Cibulkova or Venus, so I’m gambling a bit here.
Keys
65/1
If Petra collapses, and Keys catches fire, she could storm into the semi finals. Her game is perfectly suited to the surface, and while she has quite a long way to go to prove she has the mental strength and steadiness to be a realistic pick as a grandslam winner yet, she is capable of beating just about anyone if she finds a consistently high level, and she did make the semis in Melbourne. Her draw is good, with a woefully out of form Bouchard her nearest seed. I can definitely see her getting to the quarters, and when it’s likely to be Petra Kvitova on the other side of the net, you just never know.
Giorgi to win her quarter @ 16/1 (and a spare pound on her to win overall @ 150/1!)
Electric when shes switched on, lethal on a slick grass court. The steadier Kerber may be too solid for her, but she certainly has a chance in that one. A much better price in my opinion than Lisicki at 3/1
Keys to win her quarter @ 7/1.
Getting the better of the winner of Radwanksa v Kvitova is a tall order, but not an impossible one by any means. Radwanaka can be outhit and Kvitova can beat herself. And the good news for Keys is that getting to that point looks very doable indeed.
Safarova and Stephens are also all on my radar, with Kerber another one to look out for. I really am more just looking forward to seeing what happens on the women’s side of things than anything else, I don’t really have much of a clue what’s going to happen!
First round picks:
Tomljanovic d Koukalova @ 6/4
Tomljanovic has the weapons to be a menace on grass. Koukalova is possibly the most combustible player on tour. She does have the better form, but it won’t take much for her to come undone here if Tomljanovic comes out firing.
Sharapova v Konta 2-1 @ 4-1
Cibulkova
Vinci
Muguruza
Stephens
Watson
Pays 11/1
A lot to digest here, and probably more of it than not will have made me look a little stupid come this time next week. But hopefully helpful in some way to someone.
I wish everyone luck with their selections.
Ad, very helpful mate. I’ve been watching tennis intensely for like 6 months but not all that much before that so your tips and thoughts to back up my opinions is very helpful.
I’m going to look a big fool if Djokovic blows everyone away. Then again even with an injury he could still do it he’s that good.
Mr F – I can see the appeal of over 3.5 sets in Novak v Kohli. 2/1 is a decent price and will certainly add a little extra zest to the viewing experience. I would question the assessment of him as a big server though. Novak actually serves bigger!
It’s the lack of an obvious shot to hurt the world number 1 with that makes it very hard to see him struggling too much. The ice cold Serb is 42-3 for the season for a reason. Tempting price, but probably a pipe dream!
Ad, they’re all big servers I suppose. I’m doing a small stake on the overs but I’ve been surprised at the people tipping Kohlschreiber to win.
Ad superb yet again. Will be following as per usual. Your hard work and following goes unappreciated at times as it saves the lot of us doing research and time to follow the tournaments etc. Looking forward to your mens selection. Was impressed with your French open tips and I got on safarova bet when you tipped her for title when a set up against sharapova in earlier rounds .Good work as always
Thanks eastcoaster. Kind words as always. One of the main things I think to take from my womens preview is that it’s hard to know what’s going to happen! if Serenas fit and focussed, with no hangover from the French, she will probably make this all redundant. I can see why Mr.f and many others are behind her, but It’s much more fun to hope she doesnt come up trumps!
Wimbledon Day 1
Andreas Haider Maurer @2.50 1pt
Dominic Thiem
Steve Johnson Double @2.07 1pt
Hyeon Cheung @2.40 1pt
Alison Van Uytvanck @2.10 1pt
Lucie Safarova
Flavia Penetta Double @2.17 1pt
Pablo Cuevas @2.20 1pt
Wimbledon
Men’s Singles
Liam Broadly v Marinko Matosevic
LIAM BROADY 7/4 NAP boylesports
By far the BET of the first round and maybe even the BET of the Championships
********************************************************
Men’s Singles
Dudi Sela v Dominik Thiem
DUDI SELA 6/4 NB boylesports
********************************************************
Women’s Singles
Naomi Broady v Mariana Duque Marino
NAOMI BROADY 4/5 boylesports
Treble pays 11.38/1 boylesports
Ad – amazing analysis … thank you for taking the effort and time to share!! GL!!
Alexandra Dulgheru v Kristina Mladenovic
Kristina Mladenovic to win 2-0 @ 4/5 nap
I’m really really tempted by Dustin Brown @ 6/5 but I’m worried its due to my bias…anyone?
Jack, just been watching Bubba beating Casey in a play-off – I hope some were on. Going to walk the dug then might look at tennis after watching the end of the Senior Open.
Congrats! Unfortunately wasn’t on but I’ll be around all day tomorrow and will be watching the tennis non-stop.
Nishikori, Radwanska, Baghdatis @ 1.23/1
Broady to win a set, Zverev, Sharapova @ 1/1
to win a set player treble at just over evens.
niemenen over 0.5 sets v Hewitt 1-4
broady over 0.5 sets v matosevic 2-7
cibulkova over 0.5 sets v hantuchova 2-7
Tuesday win double at roughly 11-8
sock to beat groth 4-7
tsonga to beat muller 8-15
mr fixer.
if you really fancy kohlschreiber to nick a set what about the tennis version of score and win.
djokovic win and both players to win a set 7-2 hills ??
main bet today.
liam broady to win a set v matosevic 2-7
niemenan v Hewitt over 3.5 sets 1-2
pays about 10-11
Serena to get the most aces at Wimbledon 3/4, surely buying money? She annihilated the other women in this regard at the French. Just a thought.
May have to put a little bit on a serena/raonic most aces doubles at about 4.5/1
turns out paddy won’t let me do that double, serena at 4s to win the remaining 2 slams seems ok
6.5/1 not 4s *
Lettuce Long Shot Wimbledon
All players to win
Men
Seppi
Istomin
Dustin Brown
Robin Haase
Querrey
Posposil
Ladies
Azarenka
Mladenovich
Bencic
Radwanska
Sloane Stephens
Lisiki
12 fold…
50/1 bet365…small change on it…all better ranked and better form.
Posted on other tennis thread by mistake,
Murray v Wawrinka finalists @ 12/1 Bet365
Federer v Wawrinka finalists @ 20/1 Bet365
Wawrinka outright @ 14/1 Bet365
Timea Bacsinszky to make final @ 25/1 Bet365
Good luck to all!
I’ve had a go on the Djokovic and Titchy Schreiber over 3.5 sets…2/1 looks a tasty price.
If today goes well I’m definitely having a bet on Brown, maybe a double with Bouchard. Both keep catching my eyes (I know she’s out of form but she has the quality) plus I like them both so its interest if anything not to mention the price of 7/4.
Cheers Johnb, had my eye on Broady after a good show last year but forgot about betting on him tbh! Backed him after he went 1 and 2 sets down as well because I’m an idiot but it paid off. Thanks again.
Finchy what price was he at 2 sets down?
Alexandra Dulgheru v Kristina Mladenovic
Kristina Mladenovic to win 2-0 @ 4/5 nap
first nap wins :) hope some people managed to get on.
Thanks John b added your tip to mine for a nice double . first day of Wimbledon = profit!, thats what its all about.
I got 9/2 when he was a set down at the beginning of the second set (I think it went to about 6/1 when he got broke) and then after he lost the second set I got 7/1 I believe. Quite happy really! Wawrinka starting off very strong and Djokovic glides through but certainly didn’t play his best tennis.
Didn’t even see this thread, I was wondering why the usual tennis one was so quiet! Anyway, my first time tipping tennis today although I do follow and watch it regularly, but don’t bet on it as I’m too busy with football, and cricket when there’s no football. Luckily there’s no decent football or cricket on at the moment so I can give Wimbledon my full attention and hopefully pick a couple of winners to make the watching even more exciting. Backed Murray to win the thing a little while ago and a smaller stake on Stan EW but they’re tipped quite heavily in a lot of places.
Today’s bets – (all posted on other thread) –
Tomic to beat Struff
S. Johnson to beat Lacko
Mladenovic to beat Dulgheru
Treble pays 23/20 William Hill
WON
Value single
Nieminen to beat Hewitt
6/4 BetVictor
WON
All 4 add
Schiavone to beat Errani
Zverev to beat Gabashvili
Acca pays 22/1 Skybet
LOST – bloody close though, maybe 22s was a bit ambitious for my first tennis acca. Not too surprisingly let down by the biggest price pick. Looking forward to tomorrow!
Harry, I think all threads are a bit quieter today because some people are struggling to get on. Admin are aware of the problems and IT are trying to resolve.