THERE'S round two action from Rio, Delray Beach and Marseille on the ATP Tour today and plenty of interesting betting angles.
Underdog Thomas Fabbiano tempts me in the Open 13 in Marseille and I'm happy to risk the Italian.
Thomas Fabbiano vs Damir Dzumhur
Dzumhur’s prices have been pretty dismal for a while now and I said before his opener against Mikhail Kukushkin that if the latter was fit (a big ‘if) he had a decent chance on his best level.
Indeed, Kukushkin probably should have walked away with the straight sets win, having been up four match points, but in the untelevised session he faded away pretty badly in the decider.
Dzumhur had treatment from the trainer on more than one occasion during that match and the Bosnian hasn’t really been fully fit so far this campaign, retiring in Sydney and looking less than healthy in Melbourne.
The fact that this match featuring the seventh seed has been put on Court 1 suggests to me there could be an injury involved, but in any case Fabbiano has taken Dzumhur to a decider in their last two meetings.
Indeed, the Italian bagelled the Bosnian in their latest clash in Moscow at a tournament that Dzumhur went on to win, and the price looks right for me to take a chance on him here.
I said before Fabbiano’s round one match that the layers were being a bit previous by putting Felix Auger Aliassime in as a 1.49 chance and in the end it was a comfortable win for the Italian.
Delray Beach Open
Steve Johnson vs Milos Raonic
I’m happy to take a chance on Johnson here in some way, with Raonic still rather rusty after only three matches in four months, and he had to work hard to win the second set against the very limited on a hard court Taro Daniel yesterday.
He certainly looks some way from his best and this is a good chance for Johnson to beat Raonic after losing three relatively tight ones so far in his career against the Canadian.
Johnson has a good record in Delray Beach, where he’s won 11 of his 15 matches (including qualies) and made two quarter finals and a semi final, so he’s not been troubled by the windy conditions.
The 1.70 about a tie break in the match seems likely to come in with these two involved, but not great value, and I prefer either the set one win to Johnson or the match win at 2.90.
Federico Delbonis vs Diego Schwartzman
This all-Argentine clash looks to be priced up rather too heavily in Schwartzman’s favour, with Delbonis holding a decent record in Rio, and of course he’s beaten Schwartzman on three occasions in the past.
The pair met here in Rio 12 months ago when Schwartzman won it 6-4, 7-6 and it should at least be similarly close again today. It was Delbonis that created more break point chances that day (11 to 8) but he wasn’t clutch enough on those big points.
What puts me off the Delbonis win a bit is the fine record on clay of Schwartzman versus left-handers, where he’s won 12 of his last 14, losing once to Nadal and on the other occasion to Guido Pella.
In these slow, humid conditions Delbonis should be the one that can get it through the court the better and I’d expect him to be good enough to take this past the over 21.5 games mark.