THERE'S more round one action from the Sydney International and the opening matches of the ASB Classic in Auckland on Monday on the 2018 ATP World Tour.
It’s set to be a bit cooler in Sydney on Monday after a very hot spell that led to Albert Ramos saying: “This Sunday, which was over 40 degrees, has cost me a lot. I have even had to stop a little during training with dizziness. I was without energy.”
It’s meant to be about 10 degrees cooler on Monday, while over in Auckland we’re led to believe it’ll be a pleasant 22C with the usual strongish winds in the City of Sails.
Daniil Medvedev vs Phillip Kohlschreiber
Based on the main level outdoor hard court stats over the past year and their previous career meeting this 04:00 (approx.) UK time clash should go the way of Kohlschreiber with a bit to spare.
Medvedev tailed off very disappointingly last season after cracking the top-50 in the summer and won only two of his last 11 main level matches of the campaign.
In his 16 main level outdoor hard court matches over the last 12 months the Russian has carded poor hold/break stats of 73.4% holds and 16.2% breaks (89.6 total) and lost 11 of those 16 matches.
Most of his best work has come on grass, where his stats are far better at 85.4% holds and 20.8% breaks, which adds up to a very respectable total indeed of 106.2 at main level in his 14 matches (won nine/lost five).
So, there’s a huge disparity between his records on grass and outdoor hard and unless Kohlschreiber is rusty, which is quite possible at this stage of the season, I’d expect the German to be too clever for Medvedev.
It didn’t appear to be a kind match-up for Medvedev when the pair clashed on outdoor hard in Dubai in March of 2017 and Kohlschreiber used his variety very well to keep Medvedev on the move.
The tall Russian enjoys baseline rhythm and the German used different heights and spins to deny Medvedev the same ball and it worked very well for Kohlschreiber, who recorded some fine stats on serve that day in what are usually windy conditions in Dubai.
Medvedev will have the advantage of having played some competitive tennis this season, but he was beaten in round one of the Playford Challenger by Marinko Matosevic, who’s now down at number 379 in the world.
He also suffered rather in the heat in qualies against lowly opposition and those two matches are the only senior level matches that Medvedev has ever won in Australia so far in his career.
Kohlschreiber’s outdoor hard court hold/break stats over the last 12 months are far better than Medvedev’s at 84.7% holds/24% breaks in his 16 matches (won 11/lost five) for a very good total of 108.7.
He should probably be shorter than 1.70 and the -1.5 games on Kohlschreiber looks the wager here at 1.85.
- 2 points win Kohlschreiber -1.5 games to beat Medvedev
- (1.85, Unibet)