GRIGOR DIMITROV did better than I thought against Rafa Nadal on Friday at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters which brought my winning run to an end.
Rafa was still the winner most observers expected him to be but the young Bulgarian provided enough moments of real quality to take the match into a deciding set, at which point his physical condition let him down.
It's semi-final Saturday in Roquebrune-Cap-Martin and Nadal takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the only the second time on clay but the 11th time on all surfaces, with the score line currently standing at 7-3 to the Spaniard.
Tsonga will not want to dwell too long on that single clay court experience, which took place in Spain in Davis Cup and the Frenchman won just six games in three sets.
Nadal was pretty poor in the second set against Dimitrov and he'll be aware of that and I can't see him allowing Tsonga the same kind of privilege today.
Dimitrov has a much larger range of shots than Tsonga and is a more accomplished defender than the big man which will allow Rafa to dictate the play as he loves to do.
Tsonga needs to serve as well as he possibly can and be ultra attacking as he's not going to match Rafa in the long rallies. But it's possible that with a high-serve percentage and a day where he finds the lines he could trouble Nadal.
There was talk of Nadal struggling with his back in the post-match press conference on Friday and no doubt the slow conditions with rain in the air didn't help his cause against Dimitrov so if it's overcast and cold again on Saturday that will help Tsonga's chances too.
The forecast is for rain today so with the possible back issue and conditions that aren't ideally suited to Rafa's game I would avoid any really short prices about the Spaniard in this one.
So given the situation I'll side with Tsonga to be good enough to take this one with a 5.5 game start on the handicap and hope for some rain.
Recommended Bet
Back Tsonga +5.5 games to beat Nadal at 1.84
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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MONTE CARLO – TENNIS
Back Tsonga +5.5 games to beat Nadal at 1.84 ** NADAL 6-3, 7-6 **
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Milesey