Swiatek vs Gauff Prediction and Betting Tips - WTA Rome 2024

The WTA Rome 2024 semi-finals are all set, with two blockbusting matches lined up this Thursday. First up are Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff, two of the world’s top three players on the WTA Tour.

Swiatek arrives to this match in devastating form. The Pole has won 10 consecutive matches on clay, having lifted the trophy in Madrid the weekend before last. So far in Rome, she’s been untouchable. In fact, across her four matches at the Foro Italico, the 22-year-old has dropped just 21 games, barely breaking a sweat.

As Swiatek pursues her third Rome title in four years, Gauff will be looking to grab just her second win over the world No 1 in 11 meetings. The American has been building nicely over the past 10 days, navigating dual three-setters before seeing off Qinwen Zheng in impressive fashion.

It’s a semi-final that’s shaping up to be a classic contest between the best server on Tour in Swiatek, and the best returner in Gauff. Who will prevail? Read on for our Swiatek vs Gauff prediction and betting tips.

How the Bookies View It: It’s a Mismatch

Bookies aren’t even giving Gauff a look here. The American is a heavy dog at bet365, paying a whopping 5/1 to win in the Rome semi-finals. Swiatek, meanwhile, is at 1/8. Even her odds of winning in straight sets are strong, with this paying 4/9.

Recent Head-to-Head: Swiatek All Day

Why is bet365 favouring Swiatek so heavily? Just take one look at the head-to-head between these two. Swiatek has won nine of their 10 meetings so far. Gauff has won just once, prevailing in a deciding set in the semi-finals of Cincinnati last year.

Anything Else Catch the Eye?

Not only does Swiatek hold a big lead in the pair’s head-to-head, but the vast majority of their meetings have been one-sided affairs. All nine of Swiatek’s wins over Gauff have been in straight sets, and in eight of these, Gauf has only won more than six games once. 

Swiatek has been brilliant under pressure this week. Not that she’s ever been under match-threatening pressure, considering her one-sided scorelines. However, when she’s faced break-point on her own serve, the Pole has prevailed 19 of 23 times.

While Gauff is returning strongly at the moment, her serve leaves plenty to be desired. She’s barreled down a shocking 41 double faults across her four matches so far in Rome. Expect Swiatek to be all over her second serve like a rash. She’ll punish serves that are rolled in, putting pressure on Gauff to go bigger and risk more double faults.

Swiatek vs Gauff Betting Tips & Predictions

With a head of steam up on clay and a lop-sided head-to-head, we can only see this match ending in Swiatek victory. Regardless of the bookies’ scant odds, here are two great punts that will still deliver value.

  • Swiatek to win and under 18.5 games @ 11/10
  • Gauff over eight double faults @ 11/8

Swiatek and Gauff are up second on Center Court this Thursday, following Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul not before 3pm local time.


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