Hurkacz vs Paul Prediction and Betting Tips - ATP Rome Masters 2024

Just a few days remain at the ATP Rome Masters 2024, but we’re no closer to knowing who will walk away with the silverware. 

In what’s been one of the most open, unpredictable Masters tournaments of the last few years, Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul will both fancy their chances as they meet in tonight’s quarter-final. Read on for our Hurkacz vs Paul prediction and betting tips.

Hurkacz has continued to prove that he’s not just a hard court serve bot, with the Pole playing some great tennis the past week. First he snuffed Rafael Nadal’s Rome fairytale in brutal fashion, before dismissing a duo of Argentinians. With his serve, movement and groundstrokes all looking great, the No 7 seed will take some stopping.

Paul will come into this clash confident, however. The American has been unbothered across his opening three matches in Rome, dismissing Aslan Karatsev, Dominik Koepfer and most recently defending champion Daniil Medvedev, all in straight sets. 

It’s a classic battle of sharp returning vs big serving in this match–who will come out on top? We break down everything you need to know and give our prediction, plus some lucrative wagers to consider.

How the Bookies View It: Close, But Hurkacz With the Edge

Bookmaker bet365 has this Rome quarter-final looking nice and tight. The advantage lies with Hurkacz in the outright betting odds, with the world No 9 paying 4/6 for a win, compared to Paul’s 6/5. Set betting puts a Hurkacz win in straight sets as the most likely outcome, returning  6/4. 

Recent Head-to-Head: One Each

These two have met twice before on the ATP Tour, with Hurkacz and Paul each winning one. Their most recent match was in 2023 at Indian Wells. Paul won this in three sets, having lost their earlier 2021 meeting in straight sets.

Anything Else Catch the Eye?

Paul returned brilliantly against Medvedev. The American won 50 percent of return points, a stat almost unheard of on the ATP Tour, even on clay. He utilised smart net approaches with regularity to exploit Medvedev’s deep position in the court. However, given Hurkacz’s stronger serve, and closer court position, it will be a challenge for Paul to maintain his returning success.

Hurkacz’s serve is an undeniable weapon. Most recently against Sebastian Baez, he made 17 aces, 84 percent of first serve points won, and recorded an average speed of 208 km/h. But this week, it’s his movement that has been most impressive. He’s becoming more and more comfortable on the dirt, and is able to hold his own in rallies outside of the serve plus one dynamic.

Hurkacz vs Paul Betting Tips & Predictions

This is a tough match to call. The way that Paul dismissed Medvedev for the loss of just five games was impressive, but we’re leaning Hurkacz here. He’s looked a step up this week, has a stronger proven record in Masters events, and is more clutch in top 20 match-ups consistently.

  • Hurkacz to win @ 4/6
  • Hurkacz to win and over 21.5 games @ 7/5

Hurkacz and Paul take to Center Court first on Thursday, so get your bets in quick to capitalise on these odds.


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