Den Bosch v Willem II
Sunday, 1:15pm
In last weekend’s weekend column we were burnt by Willem II keeping a rather rare clean sheet and we’ll give them another opportunity to get back in our good books this weekend! That 1-0 victory over Maastricht further consolidated their place inside the play-off positions, but that’s as good as they can hope for this season with Zwolle and Heracles already near certain to finish inside the top-two.
Still, a win is a win and they’ll be buoyed by that outcome against a fellow promotion candidate. A different type of test awaits them in what is the only Sunday game in the Eerste Divisie this weekend when they make the short 14-mile trip to Den Bosch. This is a big local rivalry and there are big bragging rights on offer here. Ben Bosch will be quite pleased to know there is no relegation out of this league as they currently sit third bottom, and conceding a huge 73 goals is a big reason why. They incredibly lost 13-0 to top side Zwolle a few weeks’ ago, but even taking out those 13 they’d still have the worst defensive record in the league.
Willem II are seeking an immediate return to Eredivisie following relegation last season. Dropping needless points at stages of the season has ultimately cost them mounting a serious automatic promotion push, including dropping points to three of the current bottom four, which also featured losing 2-1 at home to Den Bosch earlier in the campaign. This Sunday’s away team will be even more eager to bounce back after losing the last derby meeting, and it is strictly that which serves as their motivation to make it back-to-back league wins.
With the exception of beating Willem II, Den Bosch normally struggle quite badly against the better teams in the league, which of course includes that 13-0 hammering! Other than beating Willem II and drawing with Maastricht, they’ve lost all of the other ten clashes against current top seven teams either home or away. After losing 13-0, they backed it up with a 4-0 loss to Venlo, but then got a much-needed win over fellow strugglers Dordrecht, before only narrowly going down 3-1 to second in table Heracles. That shows some character, but it doesn’t hide the fact of their defensive issues.
Goals are the name of the game here and Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals pays 11/10 with Bet365 and has to be a strong consideration. BTTS didn’t pay out for Willem II last weekend, but only four of their away games has failed to do so this season. Den Bosch has seen ten of 15 home games witness each side netting, and everything points to this being a bit of a shootout.
Sparta Prague v Brno
Sunday, 3pm
Our final look at the weekend action across Europe allows us to venture across to Czech Republic and a clash between title challengers Sparta Prague and mid-table outfit Brno catches the eye. In six matches’ time, the league separates and Sparta Prague have unsurprisingly already booked their spot in the Championship Group. Only goal difference is keeping them off top spot with big rivals Slavia Prague edging them out for now. Sparta haven’t won the title in nine years and this is as close as they’ve come since then to getting back to the good old days.
Whilst Slavia are top, their near neighbours are the form team in the league right now. Brian Priske’s side are unbeaten in league action since October, and that was when Slavia Prague took them to town by defeating them 4-0. They’ve certainly bounced back since then, and their seven-match winning streak in league action includes wins by the nature of 6-0, 4-1 (twice) and 3-0 (twice), so confidence really isn’t an issue right now and they head into every game expecting to win and win well. With Brno last winning away in Sparta Prague in May 2005, it is to be expected the hosts claim another three points on Sunday and that is also reflected in the odds.
Brno are one of those teams looking to break into the next group before the regular season plays off. It would appear their best hope is to finish in the 7th-10th group, which is only really a benefit for financial reasons as winning this section affords them a cash boost and a more favourable draw in next season’s Czech Cup. Whether that is a big incentive or not remains to be seen, but they’ll still raise their game against the big teams and they don’t come much bigger than Sparta Prague, but in terms of quality they are a clear second best.
The common theme for Brno is they do however struggle in those type of games. In addition to the two Prague teams, Plzen form the ‘big three’ in the division, and Brno’s results against these three this season reads 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 4-0 and 3-1; all defeats. Sparta won the earlier season head-to-head meeting 4-0 away from home, and they’ll expect to continue to put on the pressure to Slavia in these last six games before the league splits.
As mentioned, you are getting slim odds for a home win here, but the Bet365 bet builder plays into our advantage here. Combining Sparta/Sparta HT/FT and them to score at least two goals is priced 6/5 and it is just one of those which does look a little too good to be true. You’d suspect the price will shorten near the kick-off time as there is just such a gulf in class between the two. Brno just tend to crumble against this calibre of opponent and this is a great odds-against price for that to likely continue.
European Tips
- Den Bosch v Willem II – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 Bet365)
- Sparta Prague v Brno – Sparta Prague/Sparta Prague HT/FT and to Score Over 2 Goals (6/5 Bet365)
In December 2020 we sadly 
