We already see a number of bookmakers offering punters some great prizes for correctly guessing six scores in upcoming Premier League games.
With that in mind, we have decided to take up the Super 6 Challenge.
Here are this week's selections.
Our Super 6 Challenge predictions
Man City vs Brighton
Manchester City face Brighton & Hove Albion in a fixture defined by volume. City dominate at home. They win the home xG battle in 100% of matches and average 1.82 home NPxG. In the last four home games they post 2.58 xG while conceding just 0.74. Their shots, shots on target, and touches in the box all rank among the best in the league.
Brighton contribute to totals rather than suppress them. Over their last four away games they generate 1.35 xG and concede 1.68 xGA. Their away both teams to score and over 2.5 rates sit high across both the last four and last eight windows. Brighton concede box entries consistently and allow opponents sustained pressure, but they also retain enough attacking structure to score.
Combined last eight data shows total xG close to seven, with combined big chances in the mid thirties. City create enough alone to push totals, while Brighton’s willingness to play through pressure increases transition moments at both ends. Brighton have scored in 24 of their last 29 away days and can contribute to a high scoring game.
- Score 3-1 at 9/1 with Skybet
Bournemouth vs Spurs
AFC Bournemouth take on Tottenham Hotspur at the Vitality Stadium on Wednesday night with both sides desperate for three points.
Bournemouth’s home profile shows near neutrality across key metrics. Their home NPxG stands at 1.52 while NPxGA sits at 1.56, highlighting a side that can create chances but gives space away in transition.
Shot generation is efficient, yet defensive control drops once opponents bypass the first press. That pattern has become clearer in recent weeks. Across the last four home games Bournemouth have produced only 0.85 xG and allowed 1.02, with limited big chance volume and few sustained attacking phases.
Tottenham arrive with an away profile that mirrors this lack of control. Their away NPxG is 1.18 with NPxGA at 1.29, and they win the away xG battle in exactly half of their matches. Spurs remain capable of individual moments but struggle to sustain territorial pressure. Over their last four away games they concede 1.36 xGA while generating just over one expected goal themselves. Box dominance is inconsistent and shot volume fluctuates depending on game state rather than structure.
When combining the last four home and away data, the overall picture tightens further. Total fixture xG sits at just 2.12, reinforcing expectations of a low margin contest. Shots in the box and touches in the box ratios are close to neutral for both sides, while big chance counts stay modest. Neither team consistently turns pressure into multi goal output.
- Score 1-1 at 6/1 with Skybet
Fulham vs Chelsea
Chelsea make the short trip across London to Craven Cottage to face Fulham.
Fulham’s home numbers show balanced but unspectacular control. Home NPxG stands at 1.26 with NPxGA at 1.31. They create chances through volume rather than quality and rely on sustained box touches to generate pressure. Over the last four home games Fulham post 1.58 xG and allow 1.08, with steady shots in the box and a positive big chance differential.
Chelsea’s away profile is less stable. Away NPxGA rises to 1.64, with the last four away games showing 1.81 xGA and eight big chances conceded. Chelsea games away from home continue to trend toward both teams to score and higher totals. They still create, with away shots on target and box entries remaining competitive, but defensive control drops sharply once they lose territory.
The last eight games regardless of venue reinforce this pattern. Fulham maintain consistent attacking output but struggle to convert dominance into wins. Chelsea remain capable of scoring but concede enough high quality chances to prevent control. Neither side shows a strong xG battle edge in this fixture.
- Score 1-1 at 6/1 with Skybet
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Crystal Palace welcome an inform Aston Villa side, winning 17 of their last 20 in all competitions.
Palace’s home numbers show vulnerability. Over their last four home games they allow 1.36 xGA with zero clean sheets, while conceding steady shots and touches in the box. Their home big chances against rate remains elevated and their xG battle win rate sits at 70%, but that number is inflated by low scoring games rather than sustained control.
Villa’s recent data is far sharper. Over their last four away games they generate 2.33 xG and create 10 big chances. Over the last eight games regardless of venue they produce 1.85 xG per game with a combined xG above 6.30 in their fixtures. Villa’s attacking output does not rely on single chances. It is built on repeated box entries, strong shots on target numbers, and consistent chance quality.
Palace struggle when forced to defend deep for long periods which is a result of their busy schedule, small squad and injuries. Villa’s ability to generate chances through central and wide areas creates pressure that Palace have not handled well in recent home games. Villa also convert enough of these chances to clear two goals without needing Palace to contribute heavily.
- Score 1-2 at 15/2 with Skybet
Burnley vs Man Utd
Burnley host Manchester United at Turf Moor in a fixture which is shaped by the departure of Utd manager Ruben Amorim on Monday.
Burnley arrive with one of the weakest home profiles in the league. Their home NPxG sits at 0.82 while NPxGA is 1.90, a combination that consistently leaves them under pressure. They win the home xG battle only 20% of the time, one of the lowest rates in the division, and concede territory through shots, shots in the box, and sustained touches in defensive areas.
Across the last four home matches Burnley have allowed 1.78 xGA and conceded seven big chances, underlining how often opponents reach high value shooting positions.
Manchester United approach this game amid change, with their manager sacked on Monday with Darren Fletcher taking over in the short term. Despite that disruption, the underlying away data remains strong. United’s away NPxG is 1.48 with NPxGA at 1.34, numbers that improve further when isolating recent performances.
Over the last four away games they generate 1.40 xG and concede just 1.12, while creating five big chances and limiting opponents’ box access. Their away xG battle win rate sits well above Burnley’s home level, and their shot quality remains consistent even without dominating possession.
Burnley’s attacking issues are not limited to finishing. They struggle to progress the ball into advanced areas, produce low shot volume, and fail to sustain pressure for long spells. This reduces the likelihood of momentum swings or game state chaos. United do not require a fast or open contest to assert control. Even at moderate tempo, their superiority in chance creation, box entries, and overall shot quality should be enough to dictate the match.
- Score 1-2 at 7/1 with Skybet
Newcastle vs Leeds Utd
Newcastle United host Leeds United with a clear stylistic edge. Newcastle’s home data shows strong control of the box. They average 1.33 home NPxG and allow only 1.12 NPxGA, with positive shots and big chance differentials. Over the last four home games they generate 1.61 xG and create eight big chances while conceding just two.
Leeds struggle away. Their away xG battle win rate sits at 30%, with last four away xGA at 1.45 and sustained pressure conceded through shots and box touches. Leeds can score, but their ability to restrict opponents is limited, particularly against teams with strong home territory control.
Newcastle’s recent xPTS numbers remain solid, and their last eight games show consistent chance creation without requiring open game states. Leeds’ away both teams to score and over rates are inconsistent, pointing toward Newcastle controlling the match without it turning chaotic.
Score 2-1 at 13/2 with Skybet
Bet on any team to score at 50/1 odds at Betfair
T&C → Place a max £1 bet on over ‘0.5 Goals' in the Over/Under Goals market in Newcastle v Leeds on January 7th. Winnings paid in cash at normal odds and are topped up to the enhanced price in Free Bet builder bets. Free bets are valid for 30 days, only deposits with Pay by bank, cards & ApplePay are eligible. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.
The total odds for all six games are a massive 249,889/1 with Skybet, which may be worth a £1 stake for some fun. I am keen to back Newcastle to beat Leeds 2-1 and Villa to beat Palace by the same score. Combining these two games combined gives you odds of 63/1 with Skybet.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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