In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Newcastle vs Man City
Tyler Adams rates well for 1+ shot based on his away output and Sunderland’s recent defensive profile. His last five away matches show four games with at least one attempt. He produced efforts against Tottenham, Leeds, Crystal Palace and Manchester City, with two of those on target. He stayed on the pitch for at least 79 minutes in all five, which keeps his shot probability stable across full match phases. His roles across the midfield have still brought consistent attempts through late pressure or second-ball situations.
Sunderland’s numbers strengthen this angle. They have allowed 79 shots across the last five matches, the second-highest total in the league across that period. They have conceded 24 shots on target and 45 shots inside the box, placing them in the highest bracket for both.
Their structure gives opponents repeat possession in advanced areas and frequent entries into central zones. That environment supports midfielders arriving on the edge of the box or stepping into loose balls, which matches Adams’ shooting pattern across his away fixtures.
The combination of Adams’ away involvement and Sunderland’s recent concession volume creates a clear platform. Tyler Adams to record 1+ shot holds strong statistical support.
- Best Bet: Tyler Adams over 0.5 shots at 5/6 with Bet365
Crystal Palace vs Man Utd
Marc Guehi profiles strongly for a shot at goal against Manchester United. Palace rank in the top group for set piece threat with 56 shots and 6.83 xG.
United concede 47 shots and 5.63 xG, placing them in the bottom third defensively and showing issues with high-value chances rather than volume alone. The matchup suits central defenders attacking the first contact.
Guehi has taken eight shots in 11 matches, all headers, confirming a clear role at set pieces. Recent fixtures reinforce the angle. In the last four meetings with United, at least one Palace centre back has registered a shot. United repeatedly lose central runners and fail to deal with Palace’s delivery pattern.
Palace bring high volume, United concede strong quality, and Guehi holds consistent involvement. This sets a stable platform for Marc Guehi to record 1+ shot at goal.
- Best Bet: Marc Guehi over 0.5 shots at 5/6 with Bet365
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Jurrien Timber is a strong selection to record at least 1 shot in the fixture between Arsenal and Chelsea.
Arsenal hold the league’s highest set piece output with 68 shots, 7.88 xG and a 41.67% goal share. Their set piece process produces consistent volume and clear chances from central areas.
Chelsea concede 6.20 xG from 40 shots, which is the highest xG share against. They allow high-quality attempts, lose first contacts and struggle to defend central spaces. This creates the most favourable set piece matchup in the round.
Gabriel’s absence moves the aerial focus onto Timber. Across the season he has taken 14 shots in 11 matches. In the two league games without Gabriel he produced four shots and scored once.
His role as the primary target has been evident in those matches, with Arsenal directing more deliveries toward him. That involvement continued in midweek, when he added another attempt against Bayern in the Champions League. His positioning, timing and movement inside the six-yard area make him a consistent option for attacking the first ball.
Chelsea’s defensive output strengthens the expectation. Their concession numbers highlight weaknesses in tracking runners, reacting to second contacts and dealing with aggressive near-post movements. Opposition central defenders have found space against them throughout the season. Arsenal’s delivery volume meets a unit that concedes high-value chances, creating a favourable platform for Timber.
Arsenal supply high frequency and quality, Chelsea allow both, and Timber holds a clear role as the main aerial target. This combination gives a strong foundation for Jurrien Timber to record at least 1 shot in the match.
- Best Bet: Jurrien Timber over 0.5 shots at 11/10 with Betway
Further Reading
- Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips
- Aston Villa vs Wolves Prediction and Betting Tips
- West Ham Utd vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Non-League Betting Tips: Get to Moss Lane for goals
- EFL Betting Tips: More goals at the CBS
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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