In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Wolves vs Bournemouth
Yerson Mosquera profiles well for a shot on target against Bournemouth due to the matchup dynamics and Bournemouth’s defensive weaknesses from set pieces.
Mosquera’s shooting profile is narrow but clearly defined. Fourteen total shots across the league sample. Eight of those attempts are headers, a 57.1% share. His involvement is almost entirely aerial and driven by dead ball situations. Open play shots are limited and largely irrelevant to his output. When Wolves generate corners or wide free kicks, Mosquera is a primary target rather than a passive presence.
The efficiency is notable. Three shots on target from four total shots across the sample where attempts occurred regularly. Shot on target conversion sits at 75.0%. This is not volume led. It is quality led and role specific. His shots arrive from close range central zones, not speculative efforts.
Bournemouth’s defensive data amplifies this angle. They sit top for goals conceded overall and rank among the weakest for conversion allowed against. Set piece defending has been a recurring issue, with opponents converting a high share of chances once shots are generated. Bournemouth also allow frequent box access relative to xG conceded, increasing the probability that first contacts on crosses are clean.
Wolves’ attacking output funnels pressure into these scenarios. High shots faced against Wolves correlate with sustained defensive phases and repeated set pieces. In those states, Mosquera’s aerial role increases.
- Best Bet: Yerson Mosquera over 0.5 shots on target at 17/5 with BetVictor
Chelsea vs West Ham
Trevoh Chalobah to record a header on target against West Ham United is supported by role, delivery patterns, and opponent exposure.
Chalobah’s shooting profile is clearly aerial. Seven of his 13 shots are headers, a 53.8% share. Five of his 13 shots have been on target overall, with goals coming from close range contacts rather than distance efforts. This narrows the requirement. The bet needs one aerial contact directed goalwards, not sustained volume.
Chalobah completes full matches and remains an active target on attacking set pieces. His movement prioritizes central lanes between the penalty spot and six yard box. He attacks first contact zones rather than second balls. This improves accuracy probability when contact is made.
West Ham concede high shot volume and a large share from inside the box. Their shots in the box conceded sits among the highest, pointing to issues with box protection and first contact on deliveries. Opponents reach central areas frequently, creating repeat set piece scenarios. This raises the chance of a clean header rather than a contested flick.
Chelsea home fixtures generate territorial pressure and corner volume. Chalobah’s minutes security keeps exposure high across both halves, including late phases when defensive concentration drops.
The bet logic is precise. It depends on one delivery meeting one run. Chalobah’s header heavy profile and West Ham’s box exposure combine to make a header on target a realistic outcome within the match script.
- Best Bet: Trevoh Chalobah over 0.5 headers on target at 11/2 with William Hill
Man Utd vs Fulham
Harry Wilson profiles strongly for one plus shot on target for Fulham based on volume, role, and recent execution.
Wilson has taken 50 shots across 22 league appearances, landing 18 on target. Shot on target rate is 36.0%. He has recorded at least one shot on target in 11 of those 22 matches. The baseline is volume led rather than reliant on a single chance type. He averages over two shots per appearance, creating repeated opportunities to clear the line.
Across his last nine games he has produced a shot on target in seven. That is a 77.8% hit rate. This run spans home and away fixtures and different match states. It is not dependent on penalties or set pieces. Attempts arrive from open play, late box entries, and second phase actions.
Wilson starts regularly and plays deep into matches. Minutes beyond 75 raise exposure to late shots when defensive structure drops and space opens. His crossing volume shows constant final third involvement, keeping him close to shooting lanes even when Fulham build wide.
For a one plus shot on target line, Wilson’s profile is repeatable, current, and volume backed.
- Best Bet: Harry Wilson over 0.5 shots on target at 19/20 with Skybet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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