In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Last time out we back three winners so we are keeping with one pick for this weekend's selections.
Our shots on target betting picks
Aston Villa vs Fulham
Morgan Rogers has made 33 starts this season, recording 52 shots with 19 on target. He is in good form, registering five shots on target across his last five appearances. Thirteen of those 19 shots on target have come in his 16 home games, and he has hit the target in seven of those, showing clear involvement when Villa play at Villa Park.
This is a huge game for Aston Villa as they fight to stay in the top five and secure a Champions League place. They have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches this season, and with only two clean sheets at home, their games usually produce goals. Villa are also among the most attacking sides at home, with only five teams registering more shots on target.
Fulham have been fairly consistent in front of goal on their travels, failing to score in just two away games all season — which suggests we’re likely to see a lively, open match. With Rogers growing in confidence and Villa needing to go for the win, he looks well positioned to get on the shot-on-target board again.
- Best Bet: Morgan Rogers over 0.5 shot on target at 2.0 with Bet365
Chelsea vs Liverpool
We backed Marc Cucurella to have a shot against Everton and he delivered with three attempts — so we are happy to go in again here. Cucurella has now taken 22 shots in 32 appearances this season. While that total isn’t overly exciting at first glance, the recent shift in output is notable. He managed just one shot in his first 13 matches, but has since produced 21 shots across his last 19 appearances, registering at least one in 15 of them.
His numbers at Stamford Bridge are even more encouraging. Over Chelsea’s last 10 home games, Cucurella has recorded 15 shots, with at least one in nine of those, and he has scored four times in that run. He looked particularly lively in their most recent home fixture against Everton, registering three shots — part of a run of five attempts in his last three matches.
Chelsea remain in the hunt for a top-five finish and have every incentive to go for the win. Liverpool, meanwhile, have already wrapped up the title, and with nothing left to play for, we could see a more relaxed and less aggressive approach from Slot’s side. That suits Chelsea, who average 18.75 shots per game at home — a figure that reflects their attacking intent under pressure.
Defensively, Liverpool have been vulnerable on the road. They have kept just two clean sheets in their last five away games, conceding seven goals at an average of 1.4 per match. They are allowing 9.65 shots per away game and have managed only one clean sheet in away fixtures against teams currently in the top eight.
With Cucurella consistently getting forward and Chelsea expected to control the game, the setup once again looks ideal for him to get on the shot count.
- Best Bet: Marc Cucurella over 0.5 shots at 2.15 with Ladbrokes
Everton vs Ipswich Town
Abdoulaye Doucoure has started 29 matches this season and recorded 29 shots. While that doesn’t stand out on its own, his recent output under David Moyes shows a clear uptick. He has registered a shot in nine of his last 19 appearances and has hit the target three times in his last four games. Of his nine shots on target this season, eight have come in the last 13 games — no surprise considering Moyes has now been in charge for 15 of them.
At Goodison Park, Doucoure’s numbers are even stronger. He has had at least one shot on target in each of his last four home games, with five total in that stretch. Eight of his nine shots on target this season have come at home, reinforcing his attacking role in front of the home crowd.
With neither side having anything left to play for, this could be a more open match. Ipswich have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home all season. Only Brentford have conceded more total shots on the road, and only Brentford and the bottom two have allowed more shots on target in away games.
Everton are averaging 4.63 shots on target per home game under Moyes, and with Doucoure regularly pushing forward, there is strong value in backing him to test the keeper again.
- Best Bet: Abdoulaye Doucoure over 0.5 shots on target at 2.28 with Unibet
Backing Marc Cucurella to register a shot and both Adoulaye Doucoure and Morgan Rogers to have a shot on target each can be backed at 7.76 with Betway.
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