In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Newcastle vs Man City
Nico O'Reilly enters this fixture with a strong recent profile for 1+ shot. He has attempted a shot in seven of his 10 league appearances and all 11 of his attempts have come when starting on the left side. His overall rate sits at 1.44 shots per 90 across 686 minutes, providing a steady platform.
His recent starts strengthen the angle. Across his last three starts he has taken seven shots, hitting at least two in each. Those matches show the same pattern. He records high touch totals, steps into advanced lanes and links attacks down the left.
Against Bournemouth he produced 58 touches, seven progressive carries and two shots. Everton returned three shot involvements and another two attempts. Liverpool added two shots from 61 touches, with repeated entries into the final third.
His wider season data backs up this increase. He has logged at least one attempt in five of his seven starts and his involvement has trended upwards across the last month. When City settle into long spells of possession he stays high, receives recycled passes and moves inside the half space, which creates natural shooting routes.
The numbers point to a stable and repeatable pattern. A 70% hit rate across ten games, increased output across recent starts and sustained involvement in advanced areas give you a clear basis for 1+ shot.
- Best Bet: Nico O’Reilly over 0.5 shots at 10/13 with 10Bet
Burnley vs Chelsea
Burnley’s defensive profile strengthens the case for Moises Caicedo to record 1+ shot.
Across the season Burnley allow the highest npxGA in the league and give up the most shots, shots on target and shots from crosses. Their structure breaks repeatedly in the central channel and at the top of the box, which is where Caicedo collects loose balls and steps into shooting lanes.
Teams routinely force turnovers in Burnley’s half and sustain long spells of pressure, creating repeated second-phase opportunities for midfielders arriving behind the play.
Caicedo already shows a stable pattern for attempts. He has taken 10 shots in 945 minutes and recorded an attempt in seven of 11 appearances. His output lifts in matches where Chelsea hold territory. He regularly posts an average of 74 touches and pushes into advanced areas when the opposition drop deep.
His recent return highlights that improvement. He produced two shots against Liverpool, followed by shot involvement again across the Tottenham and Wolves fixtures.
The matchup pushes his probability higher. Burnley allow high-volume entries into the final third and concede more shots than any side in the division. Their wide-to-central defensive transitions are slow, leaving space for trailing midfield runners. Caicedo’s role puts him exactly in those zones. He steps onto clearances, recycles possession on the edge of the box and strikes when the ball breaks.
The data points towards repeatable involvement. Strong territory for Chelsea, Burnley’s league-worst defensive metrics and Caicedo’s consistent shooting pattern provide a firm basis for 1+ shot.
- Best Bet: Moises Caicedo over 0.5 shots at 7/10 with 10Bet
Fulham vs Sunderland
Dan Ballard has produced a strong on-target profile when he completes a full match. He has six starts this season but one ended after eight minutes due to injury. The meaningful sample is five full starts. Across those five games he has taken nine shots and hit the target five times. He has recorded a shot on target in four of the five.
His aerial threat is among the highest in the division. Only Erling Haaland has attempted more headers at goal and Haaland has started two more matches. Ballard’s heading volume is driven by Sunderland’s set play structure. Only six teams have generated higher xG from set pieces and only five teams have taken more shots from set pieces. Their restarts focus on central zones and he is the primary target.
His match-by-match output shows repeatable involvement. West Ham returned four shots and two on target. Wolves and Chelsea added further attempts, and Arsenal produced another on-target header. The pattern is consistent. When Sunderland create set piece pressure he generates at least one clean effort.
The opponent profile strengthens the angle. Fulham sit inside the top seven for shots from set pieces conceded and xGA conceded from those situations. They allow central headers, lose first contacts and give up dangerous second phases. That matches Ballard’s strongest route to goal.
The data aligns on every point. Five full starts, four delivered a shot on target, elite heading frequency and a favourable matchup provide a solid case for 1+ shot on target.
- Best Bet: Dan Ballard over 0.5 shots target at 3/1 with BetMGM
- Best Bet: Dan Ballard to score at header at 14/1 with Betfred
Further Reading
- Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips
- Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Betting Tips
- EFL Betting Tips: Goals, Goals and more Goals!
- Sky Super 6 Challenge predictions: Tricky Trees to be felled at Anfield
- Non-League Betting Tips: York to run riot at St James Park
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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