Rotherham v Derby

Skybet Championship. Kick-off: 3.00pm, Saturday September 15.

CONTINUING through the international break, Derby winger Tom Lawrence grabbed the opener for Wales against the Republic of Ireland for a 4-1 rout. It was a thing of beauty. He along with Mason Mount have really started to find their feet contributing to the majority of Derby goals scored.

Today we head to the bright lights of the big apple, well , Rotherham to be exact @ the New York Stadium. Maybe the town planners brought their satnav off Del Boy or Arthur Daley, who knows, but Derby have the wind well and truly on their backs and Rotherham seem to peeing into it.

Rotherham have 2 wins and 4 losses in the championship and have lost 4 of 5 in all competitions. They lost in the league cup and then backed that up with a narrow 1 nil loss to Wigan. They're also on -2 goal difference. Derby is the exact opposite. We've won 4 on the bounce and have won 4 the last 5 in all competitions. We have a +2 goal difference. Hardly anything to shout about but we've grinding out goals here and there. In both league cup games and 6 championship fixtures, Derby have scored in all matches at least once. It has been just 22 months since Derby registered 5 wins on the bounce ( December 2016 under Steve McClaren part 2 ). Of the last 11 fixtures the Millers have faced the Rams, they've drawn 4 and lost 7. Although Rotherham have lost just 2 matches in the last 18 home games, they've drawn 3 and won 13 – BUT most of their good results were last season in a division below.

Momentum is everything in every league for every team, if its with your team, it counts for a 12th man, if its against you, it seems never ending. I have a feeling Rotherham will want this game out of the way – kind of like ripping off a band-aid. Derby's attacking play from the back style is starting to work, its a shame its a 4-3-3 but is switchable to a 4-2-3-1.

I've found an interesting stat in this game:  10 of the last 12 goals scored in this fixture have come in the 2nd half. For Derby, this sort of plays into our hands. Like Hull in the league before the break and the Reading game, Derby pushed and pushed until the final whistle and snuck a late winner against both. The subs obviously doing their shift.

We're in 4th spot and just 2 points from the top and although Rotherham are clear of the relegation trapdoor, a few more losses and results going against them and they're in amongst it.

This next few months is relentless by the number of games we have, particularly the next month. 2 games a week. Derby have the squad + backup players to rotate and Rotherham do not.

Curtis Davis, Martin Olsson, George Evans, Harry Wilson, Jayden Bogle are likely not to be on the bus to Yorkshire, but Joe Ledley could be included on the subs bench. Everyone involved in international football returned injury free and some had some good football. Derby's Chelsea loanee Mason Mount has been rewarded with his match displays by being called up to the under 21's national side and Lampard is consistently telling us all how good he is and how far he can go. That must give the lad lots of confidence from a former player of Lampards pedigree.

Goals are likely to come from either Mason Mount, Tom Lawrence or Martin Waghorn .

Recommended bets

  • Derby win @ 6/5 with Marathonbet
  • Derby to score 2 or more goals @ 6/5 with Coral
  • Derby -1 A/H @ 21/10 with Bet365
  • Derby over 0.5 second half goals @ 8/11 with Betfair

A slow burner

Derby to win against Rotherham at 3pm and to repeat the win at home to Blackburn on Tuesday. Only bookie offering prices on  both matches is @ PaddyPower. Evens for the win against Rotherham win and 11/10 to beat Blackburn for a combined double of 3.2/1 + stake.

All of the above bets have every chance of landing, its a shame that they're with different bookies. Prices checked at 08:36hrs Sept 15th via oddschecker apart from the slow burner. Might be a chance to snag a few free bets with new accounts.

The stats suggest the 2nd half is where the action is. Derby have been a bit more disciplined so too unpredictable with the cards market, and it depends on which team turns up as to whether the scrape a few corners or get a bag full. Derby have also been a bit guilty of taking too long to grow into a game.

We either need it all level at h/t or for Derby to go into the break with a goal or 2. If we score first and take the lead into the break, I cannot see Rotherham getting back into the match. I think this fine form will continue for the Rams and we'll then take that energy into the Tuesday match where we entertain Blackburn – ( complete with my 2 youngest nephews as flag bearers )  and hopefully a 2nd pair of matches delivering a Derby double in 2.5 weeks. ( I did it with the Hull matches, I think I can do it again ).

Good luck guys.

1 Comment
  1. Author
    nathanufton 1 month ago

    Derby team news:

    Carson
    Bogle/Keogh/Tomori/Forsyth
    Johnson/Huddlestone
    Jozefzoon/Mount/Lawrence
    Waghorn

    Substitutes: Roos, Wisdom, Malone, Ledley, Holmes, Bennett, Marriott.

    It is 4 changes from the team that beat Hull 2-1 before the international break. Surprised me that one. Wisdom and Malone rested and replaced with Bogle in right back and Forsyth on the left. Huddlestone comes in for Bryson, Waghorn replaces Nugent.
    Nugent is ill and Bogle seemed to be the 1st choice right back until he got injured a few matches back after just 30 minutes ( Millwall game I think ), Wisdom stood in for him in his absence. Malone is a youngster, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet but Forsyth needs to take his chance and put down a solid performance in left back to let the manager know he’s back to where we know his ability is.
    No signs of Bryson, not on the bench, maybe an illness or a knock, no news on that yet.
    The surprise for me is the nailed on switch from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1, trust me, it is a plus point for Lampard. We’ve the players to cope better with that shape, we can still do the build-up play and we should be able to put the foot on the ball in midfield and dictate.
    I thought we’d make 2 changes for this game ( Waghorn and Huudlestone ) – I guess the manager is ” managing ” his squad. Maybe in lieu of Tuesdays match which is also winnable. Looking forwards to this one.
    But i’ll be sticking with my bets.

    Good luck guys.

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