THE men’s quarter-finals at the US Open get underway on Tuesday at Flushing Meadows with the wide-open bottom half of the draw in action on day nine in New York.
I now move on to the business of getting my 75-1 outright, Sam Querrey, to advance to the semis.
Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson
I expected Mischa Zverev to prove a tricky obstacle for Querrey to overcome in round four but it was anything but for the in-form American who powered past a below-par Zverev for the loss of only five games.
In many ways a Zverev not able to serve at his best due to a shoulder problem proved a perfect opponent for Querrey whose mind was made up for him in terms of shot choices by the net-rushing German.
There were no indecisions about point-building in that one, with Zverev storming to the net and Querrey either passing him or missing and more often than not he passed, but Anderson presents a different challenge.
Anderson and Querrey have clashed on no fewer than 15 occasions in their careers with Querrey winning nine of them but Anderson won the last in Montreal a few weeks ago and he’s won three of their last five.
The South African was an impressive winner that day in Canada and was able to break down Querrey’s backhand in that match so he’s a dangerous opponent for our outright selection.
It would appear Querrey’s emphatic win over Zverev has influenced the prices here, with Anderson’s rather more laboured success over Paulo Lorenzi not catching the eye as much.
So we have Querrey a rather short-looking 4-6 at Unibet when the pair were evenly priced just three weeks ago when Anderson won handily.
There’s little between them in terms of their service hold/break totals on outdoor hard at main level in 2017, with Querrey on 108.4 and Anderson on 110.4, but again it’s Anderson that’s slightly ahead.
Anderson is also better in terms of service holds in the nine-match outdoor hard court career series between the pair, with 86.6% holds compared to the 84.2% of Querrey.
So, if anything perhaps slight value on Anderson as underdog here, but it’s advantage Querrey in terms of him having played a night match on Ashe already and I’m not sure if Anderson has played under the lights on Ashe before.
Looking at his career at the US Open he did play Stan Wawrinka on Ashe in 2015 but that was an afternoon match and he beat Andy Murray the round prior to that on Armstrong.
But a night match on Ashe is something unique and this one has the makings of a real battle and with few break chances expected the bet has to be over 41.5 games at 4-5 with Unibet.
Sean's best bet
- 1.5pts win over 41.5 games Querrey v Anderson
- (4-5, Unibet)