When you’re a top-flight boss under intense pressure the last thing you need is a Scottish cup tie away to a lower-league side who are on an 11-game unbeaten run.
But that’s the scenario Stevie Hammell finds himself in today as his Motherwell strugglers head to Stark’s Park to face Raith Rovers.
Well’s season hit a new low last weekend as they crashed 3-1 at Aberdeen, with fed-up fans then pinning a banner outside Fir Park that read: “Show some passion for the badge on your shirt.”
It’s now just one victory in 12 games for the Steelmen but Hammell might take some heart from the fact that win came in the last round of the Cup in similar circumstances.
I fancied Arbroath in the double chance market that day only for Well to grind out a 2-0 victory.
But Dick Campbell’s men were also struggling in the Championship and it’s a different story today with Raith.
Ian Murray’s men have hit their stride and only goal difference is keeping them out of a play-off spot.
Their last defeat came in early December and Rovers came from 2-0 down at Dens in midweek to beat Dundee on penalties and reach the SPFL Trust Trophy Final.
Plenty of punters will lap up the 8/5 on offer at BoyleSports for Raith to qualify while the odds increase to 13/5 at McBookie if you back them to win inside 90 minutes.
However, playing 120 minutes in midweek on a poor Dens Park pitch might have taken a lot out of Rovers so I’m steering clear of backing a result.
Going for goals looks better with Murray’s side having scored twice in each of their last five matches and Well still possessing a threat in attack.
Over 2.5 strikes is at best evens with Unibet while BTTS is a little shorter at 17/20 with McBookie.
Featured Scottish Cup Tips
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The scorer markets offer longer prices and Raith’s Aidan Connolly looks a bit overpriced at 3/1 (William Hill) for a goal after netting 15 times already this season.
Kilmarnock and Dundee United also find themselves in the dogfight against the drop along with Motherwell and Ross County.
But they can take a break from that pressure for 90 minutes today as they face off at Tannadice for a place in the Scottish Cup quarter-finals.
Killie dumped United out of the League Cup at Rugby Park earlier this season and also beat them in the league there.
But they were thrashed 4-0 when they last came to Tannadice and still haven’t managed to claim an away win in the league all season.
However, Derek McInnes’ men did claim a shock win at Tynecastle on their march to the League Cup semis to it’s a difficult one to call.
I’d be surprised if either side won this comfortably and one-goal winning margin appeals at 5/4 (McBookie).
The League Cup tie between these sides was pretty feisty, with seven yellows flashed, so it could be a busy day for the ref again. Bet365 price over 4.5 cards at 11/10 for this one.
It’s hard to see Rangers or Celtic slipping up as they have home ties against St Mirren and Partick.
The Buddies crashed 4-0 on their last visit to Parkhead in the league and have been poor on their travels all season.
It’s hard finding value for the Hoops but backing them to win both halves pays 13/10 at McBookie. Gaffer Ange Postecoglou might freshen his side up a bit and Liel Abada looks decent value at 6/4 with Paddy Power for a goal if the Israeli starts.
We should see goals at Ibrox tomorrow as parking the bus isn’t Ian McCall’s style. Over 3.5 strikes is evens at McBookie while the odds increase a little to 21/20 if you back over 1.5 first-half goals.
Livingston have been superb at home this season and Inverness are as big as 11/2 with BetVictor for a win inside 90 minutes at the Tony Macaroni.
Joel Nouble netted last weekend for Livi and the big striker looks good value for another here at 7/4 (Paddy Power).
The other tie this weekend sees Elgin head to Somerset Park and I fancy in-form Ayr to be winning at half-time and full-time (23/20, Coral). Josh Mullin has nine for the season and appeals at 2/1 (Betfair) for another goal today.
Super singles
Over 2.5 goals at Raith (Evs, Unibet)
Ayr HT-FT (23/20, Coral)
Nouble to score (7/4, Paddy Power)
Over 3.5 goals at Ibrox (Evs, McBookie)
I'm a sports journalist, football tipster and author from Dundee, who is now working in Glasgow. I've covered games at every level, from Junior football to internationals, and still love football even though it has clearly sold its soul. I've been in football tipping since 2018 with the MFT site.
