Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Bromwich Albion renew their Black Country rivalry at Molineux on Sunday with kick-off scheduled for 12:00. This is the first league meeting between the clubs for five years.
Security will form a major part of the build-up. Their FA Cup meeting at The Hawthorns in January 2024 was stopped for 38 minutes after police officers were assaulted, missiles were thrown and flares were set off.
Police arrested 43 people following the disorder. Twelve received charges and sentences, while five received permanent club bans. Both clubs have confirmed enhanced stewarding, policing, ticketing controls and safety measures for Sunday's fixture.
Wolves won the 2024 cup tie 2-0, ending a six-match winless run against West Brom. The result was their first victory in this fixture since May 2011.
The hosts enter the derby with 11 points from six Championship matches. Their record includes three wins, two draws and one defeat. West Brom have collected 14 points from seven games after recording four victories, two draws and one loss.
Wolves returned to winning ways with a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United last weekend. They generated 1.89 xG from 17 shots and restricted their opponents to six attempts. It was their first clean sheet of the league season.
Cesar Peixoto made nine changes for Wednesday's 1-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Everton. Wolves competed throughout a match containing few clear opportunities before Charly Alcaraz scored after 80 minutes.
Raul Jimenez left the pitch with an injury during the first half. Adam Armstrong replaced him and later had a one-on-one effort saved by Jordan Pickford. Armstrong is expected to lead the attack if Jimenez fails to recover.
West Brom drew 1-1 with Queens Park Rangers in their latest Championship fixture. Albion created 1.72 xG from 12 shots, compared with 0.58 from four attempts for their opponents. The performance deserved more than one point based on the chance quality.
James Morrison's side had previously recorded consecutive 1-0 wins over Watford and Derby County. Their only league defeat came at Middlesbrough, where they lost 3-1 after conceding twice to Will Lankshear.
How the bookies view it
Wolverhampton Wanderers are 4/5 favourites, carrying an implied probability of 55.6%. The draw is 14/5, representing 26.3%, while West Bromwich Albion are 7/2, giving them a 22.2% chance.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11, implying 52.4%. Under 2.5 goals is available at 19/20, representing 51.3%.
Both teams to score is 4/5 for yes, carrying an implied probability of 55.6%. No is priced at 1/1, representing 50%.
Player to watch: Isaac Price threat for the Baggies
Isaac Price has supplied West Brom with a consistent threat from behind the striker.
The midfielder has played 630 Championship minutes and recorded 19 attempts, with eight hitting the target. He has scored twice from 1.94 xG.
Price has also produced 2.22 xA and created 10 chances. Those numbers show his influence extends beyond his own shooting output.
His best performance came during the 3-1 victory over Burnley. Price scored twice in the second half as Albion overturned an early deficit and maintained their winning start.
Price is expected to operate behind Aune Selland Heggebo alongside Felix Horn Myhre. His ability to arrive inside the penalty area gives Wolves another attacking movement to track.
Predicted lineups
Wolverhampton Wanderers (4-2-3-1): Sa, Tchatchoua, Djiga, Krejci, Bueno, Andre, Munetsi, Gomes, Lopez, Mane, Armstrong.
West Bromwich Albion (4-3-2-1): O'Leary, Styles, Phillips, Mepham, Townsend, Nzingoula, Molumby, Collyer, Price, Horn Myhre, Heggebo.
Anything else catch the eye
Wolves hold the stronger underlying record. They have generated 10.61 xG and allowed 6.93 xGA, leaving a positive difference of 3.68. Their xPTS total stands at 10.68, almost level with their return of 11 points.
West Brom's results have run ahead of their performances. Albion have produced 10.12 xG and conceded chances worth 9.75 xGA. Their expected return is 9.99 points, more than four fewer than their actual total.
The relevant venue splits increase the difference. Wolves have registered 4.33 xG across two home games while allowing 1.60 xGA. They have scored six goals at Molineux, following a 2-2 draw with Blackburn Rovers with a 4-1 victory over Stoke City.
West Brom have collected six points from three away matches despite recording 4.29 xG against 6.04 xGA. Opponents have created 13 big chances across those trips, compared with five for Albion.
The goals record points towards both sides contributing. Wolves have scored in all six league matches, while West Brom have found the net in each of their seven fixtures. Both teams have scored in 5/6 Wolves games and 5/7 Albion matches.
Wolves have conceded in five league fixtures. West Brom have kept two clean sheets, but both came during narrow wins in which Watford and Derby created the stronger expected-goals figures.
The older Molineux record also warns against treating Wolves as a straightforward home selection. West Brom have won four of their last six visits, including a 3-2 victory in January 2021 and a 5-1 success in February 2012.
The derby setting creates additional result-market uncertainty. The scoring records offer a clearer angle. Both teams have avoided a league blank, while neither defensive record supports full confidence in a clean sheet.
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