West Ham host Wolves at the London Stadium on Tuesday, kick-off 19:45, with the two relegated clubs making contrasting starts to the Championship season. Wolves arrive top of the early table, while West Ham are still searching for their first league win.
The Hammers have taken two points from matches against Burnley, Charlton and Watford, scoring four goals and conceding five. Their underlying attacking numbers remain stronger than the results, with 5.85 xG generated across those three fixtures.
Wolves have collected seven points and lead the division for xPTS with 6.51. They have produced 6.03 xG while allowing 2.34 xGA, giving them a ratio of 0.72. Their attack has scored nine times, with at least three goals recorded in every match involving Cesar Peixoto’s side.
West Ham’s only home performance produced a 2-1 defeat against Charlton despite generating 3.23 xG. Nuno Espirito Santo’s team recorded 25 shots, nine efforts on target and four big chances, but Valentin Castellanos missed a stoppage-time penalty.
Their latest match ended 1-1 at Watford. West Ham controlled much of the second half but finished with 1.07 xG, one shot on target and no big chances. Nuno felt his side deserved more, although their equaliser came through a Mattie Pollock own goal.
Wolves followed a 2-2 draw with Blackburn by winning 3-1 at Preston and 4-1 at home to Stoke. They have conceded in every league match, falling behind twice, but their attacking depth has allowed them to recover.
How the bookies view it
West Ham are 1/1, implying a 50% chance of winning. The draw is 11/4, which represents 26.7%, while Wolves are 14/5, carrying an implied probability of 26.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5, implying 55.6%, with under 2.5 priced at 21/20, or 48.8%. Both teams to score is 7/10 for yes, representing 58.8%, while no is 6/5, implying 45.5%.
Head to head: Hammers hold the edge
West Ham and Wolves have met 14 times since June 2020, with the Hammers winning eight and Wolves taking six. None of those matches finished level.
West Ham won the latest meeting 4-0 at the London Stadium in April, although Wolves had won the previous three. Seven of the 14 fixtures produced over 2.5 goals.
Player to watch: Fer Lopez to show his class
Fer Lopez has quickly become an important part of Wolves’ attack following his £19m move from Celta Vigo last summer.
The Spaniard scored twice in the 3-1 victory at Preston, opening the scoring after carrying the ball forward from his own half before finishing another passing move from outside the area. He then created Jordan James’ goal against Stoke.
Lopez’s direct running gives Wolves an outlet when opponents push forward. That looks relevant against a West Ham side expected to control possession at home.
Predicted lineups
West Ham (4-4-1-1): Hermansen, Veltman, Golambeckis, Kilman, Walker-Peters, Bowen, Engels, Kante, Solomon, Mukasa, Castellanos.
Wolves (4-2-3-1): Sa, Tchatchoua, Djiga, Gomes, Bueno, Munetsi, Andre, Gomes, Lopez, Mane, Jimenez.
Anything else catch the eye
West Ham average 16.33 shots per game but have conceded from set pieces, counter-attacks and individual mistakes. They surrendered a two-goal lead at Burnley before defensive errors allowed Charlton to score twice at the London Stadium.
Wolves average 17.33 attempts, 12 shots inside the box and 3.67 big chances. Their defensive record is less secure, with Blackburn scoring twice before Preston and Stoke both found the net.
All six league matches involving these teams have seen both sides score. Wolves have found the net at least twice in every fixture, while West Ham’s home chance creation points towards an improved scoring return.
The head-to-head record has produced several one-sided results, but the current profiles are different. Both attacks are creating chances at a strong rate, while neither defence has recorded a clean sheet this season. Over 2.5 goals is the bet at 4/5
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