West Ham United host Portsmouth at the London Stadium on Saturday, with kick-off at 3pm, in a Carabao Cup first-round tie that opens the competitive season for both clubs. It also marks West Ham's first competitive game back in the Championship for more than a decade following last season's relegation from the Premier League.
West Ham went down on the final day despite beating Leeds United 3-0, finishing 18th with 39 points, 46 goals scored and 65 conceded. It was the highest points total recorded by a relegated Premier League side in 15 years, but the underlying numbers still pointed towards a poor campaign rather than bad luck.
They posted around 47.6 xG and 62.4 xGA, producing a heavily negative model goal difference that closely matched their actual figure of -19. Defensively, they were among the weakest sides in the bottom half.
Nuno Espirito Santo, who replaced Graham Potter during the season, has been retained on a three-year deal and is now tasked with leading the promotion push. The summer has brought significant change. Mateus Fernandes joined Tottenham for a club-record £85 million, Crysencio Summerville moved to Al Hilal for around €64.5 million, Freddie Potts signed for Club Brugge, Callum Wilson joined Brentford and Adama Traore departed following the expiry of his contract.
Those sales have generated major funds for Nuno and recruitment chief Nils Koppen to reshape the squad, with West Ham among the early favourites to win the Championship.
Portsmouth finished 18th in the Championship with 55 points, but their underlying numbers were considerably stronger than their final position suggested. They recorded around 46.5 xG and 48.8 xGA, producing only a small negative model goal difference.
Their 61.49 xPTS would have placed them several positions higher than 18th and finished more than six points above their actual return, suggesting they underperformed rather than performing like one of the division's weakest sides.
John Mousinho remains in charge after again keeping Portsmouth in the Championship despite reported interest from elsewhere. Adrian Segecic finished as their leading league scorer with 11 goals, while Mousinho has again worked with a relatively modest budget during the summer. Marko Milovanovic, Rocco Shein, Daniel Bielica, Luke Brooke-Smith, Eoin Kenny and Odin Bailey are among the new arrivals.
West Ham went unbeaten throughout preseason. A 1-1 draw with Southend United was followed by a 5-0 win at Stevenage before a goalless draw at Rangers. They signed off with a 1-1 draw away at Magdeburg, Max Kilman's first-half goal cancelled out late on by Falko Michel.
Portsmouth's preparation was more mixed. They beat Woking 2-1 before losing 2-0 to National League side Aldershot Town, then drew 1-1 at Bristol Rovers. A 3-1 defeat at Wycombe followed before draws against Farnborough and Darmstadt completed the schedule. Colby Bishop struck the post in Germany and Adrian Segecic also went close, with Mousinho describing the performance as Portsmouth's best of preseason.
Captain Marlon Pack remains unavailable following knee surgery, with the following week's QPR fixture a more realistic return date. Harvey Blair is also a doubt with a hip problem, while Josh Murphy remains around three weeks away from full training. Marko Milovanovic could feature after another week working with the squad.
How the bookies view it
West Ham are priced at 8/15, implying a 65.2% chance of winning inside 90 minutes. The draw is 7/2, implying 22.2%, while Portsmouth are 19/4, implying 17.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 6/11, an implied probability of 64.7%, while both teams to score is 4/6, implying 60.0%.
Head to head: Hammers hold the upper hand
These clubs have not met since January 2012, when West Ham won 1-0 at Fratton Park in the Championship. The reverse fixture earlier that season produced a seven-goal contest, with West Ham winning 4-3 at Upton Park.
Most of the previous meetings came in the Premier League during the 2000s, where the fixture was often closely fought. West Ham won 2-0 during the 2009 Christmas period, although several games around that time finished either goalless or with only one goal separating the sides.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen to lead by example
Jarrod Bowen played every minute of West Ham's relegation campaign, starting all 38 Premier League matches and contributing nine goals and 11 assists despite the team's struggles.
He captained the side in the final preseason friendly at Magdeburg and remained West Ham's main attacking outlet, forcing an early save, creating a good opportunity for Taty Castellanos and seeing another effort parried by the goalkeeper.
With the captaincy and a clear role as the side's primary attacking threat, Bowen looks central to West Ham's promotion push and should again carry much of the responsibility in the final third.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham United (4-3-3): Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Scarles; Orford, Kante, Lamadrid; Bowen, Castellanos, Pablo Felipe.
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1): Schmid; Devlin, Poole, Shaughnessy, Swanson; Le Roux, Shein; Segecic, Adams, Brooke-Smith; Bishop.
Anything else catch the eye?
The gap in resources remains substantial. West Ham have dropped one level from the Premier League, but their summer sales have generated the sort of money Portsmouth simply cannot match, and the squad still contains significantly more individual quality than the visitors can call upon.
Their unbeaten preseason also suggests Nuno has already started to give the side a more stable base. West Ham conceded only two goals across four warm-up matches, which matters when considering the shape of this tie. Nuno is unlikely to need an open game to get the result, especially against a Portsmouth side that has already shown it can remain competitive against Championship opposition.
Portsmouth's underlying numbers deserve respect. Their 61.49 xPTS suggests they were better than 18th place last season, while a model goal difference close to zero points towards a side far more competitive than the final table alone implies. The problem here is the step up in individual quality and the absence of captain Marlon Pack, with several other players also short of full fitness.
That makes the straight West Ham win at 8/15 difficult to back on its own, while over 2.5 goals at 6/11 looks short for a game where the hosts should be able to control the tempo if they get ahead.
My bet is West Ham to win and under 4.5 goals at 1/1
GambleAware