West Ham United vs Everton takes place in the Premier League on Saturday at the London Stadium, with both sides positioned in the middle of the table and still looking to finish the season with momentum.
West Ham arrive with mixed recent results, but their underlying numbers at home show a stronger level than results alone. Across their last four at the London Stadium they have posted 2.01 xG and only 0.97 xGA, collecting six points from an xPTS return of 7.64. That gap highlights a side creating enough to win games more comfortably, while keeping control defensively.
Everton’s recent run is similarly inconsistent. Over their last four games they have produced 1.13 xG and 1.23 xGA, returning four points from an xPTS total of 4.51. Their away profile is weaker. They generate 1.14 xG on the road and concede 1.28 xGA, while also posting a 31% failed to score rate away from home. That lack of attacking consistency remains a key issue.
The broader numbers point to a controlled game state. West Ham’s home matches sit at 63% for both teams to score and 63% for over 2.5 goals, while Everton’s away games are lower at 44% for both teams to score and 31% for over 2.5 goals. Shot data supports this balance, with West Ham averaging 10.06 shots for and 12.44 against, while Everton face 15.44 shots per away game.
This sets up a contest where West Ham are expected to dictate phases of play, while Everton look to stay compact and limit space, with both sides still searching for consistency late in the season.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
West Ham are priced at 29/20 in the match winner market, which equates to a 40.82% implied probability of a home victory. Everton are available at 2/1, representing a 33.33% implied probability of an away win. The draw is priced at 5/2, which implies a 28.57% probability.
The goals market points towards a higher scoring expectation. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, which converts to a 55.56% implied probability of at least three goals.
Both teams to score is priced at 8/11, representing a 57.89% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head record between West Ham and Everton is tight across the last 20 meetings. West Ham have eight wins, Everton have seven, with five draws.
The goal difference stands at 21-23, averaging 2.20 goals per game, with both sides contributing at a similar level, 1.05 goals for West Ham and 1.15 for Everton.
Recent meetings highlight a low scoring trend. The last four Premier League clashes have finished 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, and 1-3. Three of those four games have seen under 2.5 goals, and two have ended level.
The most recent meeting in September finished 1-1, continuing that pattern of close contests.
Looking slightly further back, there is still little separation. Across the last 10 league meetings, both sides have five wins each, with no dominant run. Scorelines remain tight, with seven of those 10 games producing two goals or fewer.
Clean sheets have also played a role. Both teams have recorded multiple shutouts in this fixture, and neither side has consistently scored more than once per game across the sample.
Players to watch: Summerville to shoot on sight
Crysencio Summerville to have 1+ shot on target is backed by strong recent consistency and his role in West Ham’s attack. He has registered a shot on target in 11 of his last 14 appearances, which shows a reliable baseline for this line.
Across the season he has taken 55 shots with 19 on target, maintaining steady involvement even when used in different roles. That flexibility has not reduced his output. In recent matches he continues to find shooting positions, with multiple games where he has recorded two or more shots, increasing the chance of at least one hitting the target.
West Ham’s attacking numbers at home also support this. They average over 10 shots per game, with regular entries into the box and consistent wide progression. Summerville benefits from that structure, often cutting inside or arriving late into central areas.
With 11 shots on target in his last 14, combined with consistent minutes and steady shot volume, the probability of at least one effort on target remains strong.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham United 4-4-1-1: Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf; Bowen, Fernandes, Soucek, Summerville; Pablo; Castellanos.
Everton 4-2-3-1: Pickford; Mykolenko, Keane, Tarkowski, O’Brien; Garner, Gueye; McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Barry.
Anything else catch the eye?
West Ham to win stands out as the strongest angle based on the underlying numbers and recent performance levels. Their home process is clear. Over the last four games at the London Stadium they have produced 2.01 xG while conceding just 0.97 xGA, alongside 8.5 shots in the box and only 7.5 allowed.
That control has also translated into chance quality, with six big chances created and only one conceded across that spell.
Everton’s away data points in the opposite direction. They allow 15.44 shots per game on the road and 4.25 shots on target against, while producing just 3.18 on target themselves. Their attacking output sits at 1.14 xG, and they have a 31% failed to score rate away, showing limited reliability in the final third.
The contrast in chance creation is key. West Ham are generating higher quality opportunities, while Everton struggle to sustain pressure. Over the last four games Everton have created only one big chance per game on average, compared to West Ham’s stronger output at home.
Expected points also favour the hosts. West Ham’s last four home games return 7.64 xPTS compared to Everton’s 5.14 across their last four away. That gap reflects better control in key moments and stronger overall performance levels.
When combining shot volume, chance quality, and defensive control, West Ham hold the edge across all major metrics. With Everton conceding high shot numbers and lacking attacking consistency, the home win is supported by both recent form and underlying data.
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