Sunday brings one of the most interesting fixtures of the Championship's opening weekend, with Southampton travelling to Vicarage Road to face Watford at 1.30pm.
Watford finished 16th last season on 57 points, well below their 68.02 xPTS. That gap needs context. They were only three points outside the automatic promotion places on New Year's Day before taking just 16 points from their final 21 matches, the third-worst return in the Championship during that period. This was a second-half collapse rather than a season of consistent bad luck.
Their underlying home numbers were relatively balanced at 1.30 xG and 1.12 xGA, with their away figures similarly close at 1.21 xG and 1.19 xGA. Alessio Dionisi has arrived from Sassuolo as the latest head coach tasked with finding some stability, with Martin Payero, Luca Kjerrumgaard, Iker Bravo and Omar Traore among the summer additions from Udinese, while Faderico Ravaaglia has joined Bologna.
Southampton finished forth with 80 points, almost perfectly matching their 80.64 xPTS. Their season changed dramatically after Tonda Eckert replaced Will Still in November with Southampton sitting 21st. From that point they collected 68 points, more than any other Championship club, including champions Coventry City.
Their underlying numbers support that improvement. Southampton averaged 1.68 xG and 1.01 xGA at home, with an almost identical attacking output away at 1.69 xG alongside 1.23 xGA. The summer has strengthened an already deep squad. Lewis Dobbin has arrived from Aston Villa, Divin Mubama has joined on loan from Manchester City, while Cyle Larin and Daniel Peretz have signed permanently following loan spells. Shea Charles has departed for Fulham for £30m.
Southampton's preparation has also taken place against the backdrop of the disciplinary case surrounding last season's play-offs. They begin this campaign with a four-point deduction, while Eckert has been charged by the FA over three alleged misconduct breaches. Owner Dragan Solak has publicly backed his head coach.
Watford's preseason produced a 3-0 win over Hansa Rostock and a 1-0 defeat to Fiorentina before their Carabao Cup tie against Crawley Town highlighted their biggest concern. Watford registered 36 shots, generated 4.30 xG and created four big chances, yet remained goalless until Marc Bola struck in stoppage time.
The positive was chance creation. Othmane Maamma repeatedly caused problems from wide areas, while Dionisi gave debuts to Federico Ravaglia, Omar Traore and Iker Bravo. Defensively there was little to judge, with League Two Crawley generating only 0.82 xG and one big chance.
Southampton have won all four matches across preseason and the Carabao Cup, beating AFC Totton 3-2, Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0, Preussen Munster 2-1 and Colchester United 2-0. The Colchester performance produced 2.89 xG and four big chances against 0.79 xGA, although Southampton needed until the 72nd minute to break the deadlock.
How the bookies view it
Watford are 12/5, implying a 29.4% chance of winning. The draw is 11/4 at 26.7%, while Southampton are 15/13 at 46.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is 3/4, implying 57.1%, while both teams to score is 8/13 at 61.9%.
Head to head: Saints have a strong record against the Hornets
Southampton have won nine of the 19 meetings between these sides since 2015, with Watford winning twice and eight ending level.
Southampton are unbeaten across their four Championship meetings during that period, winning twice and drawing twice. The latest came in February 2026, when Southampton won 1-0.
The goals numbers are more interesting for Sunday's market. Both teams scored in 12 of those 19 meetings, a 63.2% strike rate.
Player to watch: Cyle Larin back after impressive World Cup
Cyle Larin made his Southampton move permanent after an influential loan spell during the second half of last season.
He had not played a minute during preseason before facing Colchester, having only recently returned to training following Canada's World Cup campaign. That did not stop him making an immediate impact. Larin came off the bench and needed only 10 minutes to convert Ryan Manning's cross.
Eckert said afterwards that Larin is currently ready to produce a strong 30 minutes rather than start, so another substitute appearance looks more likely at Watford. His finishing still gives Southampton a major option from the bench if the game remains tight.
Predicted line ups
Watford (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia; Traore, Pollock, Keben, Bola; Bove, Louza; Maamma, Bravo, Baah; Kjerrumgaard.
Southampton (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Manning; Downes, Matsuki; Fellows, Dobbin, Scienza; Brereton Diaz.
Anything else catch the eye?
Southampton arrive with the stronger case across almost every season-long measure. Their 80.64 xPTS almost perfectly matched their 80-point return, while Eckert's 68 points after taking charge represented the best Championship return over that period. Their 1.69 away xG also shows the attacking numbers travelled well rather than being built around home advantage.
Watford are more difficult to dismiss than their 16th-place finish suggests. Their 68.02 xPTS was 11.02 points higher than their actual return, while generating 4.30 xG and 36 shots against Crawley showed the attacking potential remains. The obvious concern is finishing those chances, but Southampton's away defensive record last season provides enough encouragement for Watford to contribute.
Both teams to score at 8/13 looks too short on its own. Southampton at 15/13 is more interesting given the difference in underlying quality, but combining the two markets better reflects how I expect the game to develop.
Southampton have the attacking depth to punish a Watford defence being rebuilt under a new manager, while Watford's own chance creation suggests they are capable of making this more competitive than a straightforward away win.
My preferred angle is Southampton to win and both teams to score at a little bigger than 3/1. It backs Southampton's clear quality advantage while allowing for a Watford goal, which fits the underlying numbers better than relying on an away clean sheet.
GambleAware