Tranmere Rovers host Rochdale at Prenton Park on Saturday, kicking off at 3pm, in the Carabao Cup preliminary round, the first competitive fixture of the new season for both clubs.
Tranmere narrowly avoided relegation from League Two last season, finishing 21st after a turbulent campaign that featured two managerial changes. Andy Crosby departed in March before Pete Wild took interim charge, with Darrell Clarke appointed permanently in May on a two-year contract following his departure from Bristol Rovers.
The underlying numbers reflected those struggles, an xPTS total of just 52.52 ranked only 18th in League Two, while an xGA of 62.6 was the second worst defensive record in the division.
Rochdale, by contrast, return to the Football League after winning promotion through the National League play-offs, beating Boreham Wood on penalties after extra time at Wembley. They were unfortunate not to secure automatic promotion after conceding a stoppage-time equaliser on the final day, and their underlying numbers justified promotion, producing an xPTS total of 91.35, second only to York City, alongside the National League's best defensive record with an xGA of just 39.9.
Promotion was followed by a managerial change of their own, Jimmy McNulty leaving for Stockport County before Ian Watson arrived from South Shields on a three-year deal.
Clarke has overseen an extensive rebuild at Prenton Park. Jason Lowe, Aaron McGowan, Kaiyne Woolery and Harvey Saunders have all departed, while the manager has admitted the squad remains lighter than he would ideally like. Home form also needs significant improvement after Tranmere won only four of 23 league matches at Prenton Park last season, the second worst home record in League Two.
New arrivals include Zane Okoro, Jordan Davies, Tom Conlon, Joel Senior and goalkeeper Harrison Male, a two-time National League Golden Glove winner who helped York City win the title last season. The headline addition is Tom Ince, whose arrival from Watford.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have retained the core of the squad that earned promotion. They won 15 of their 23 away league matches last season, the second best away record in the National League, giving them a settled platform heading into the new campaign.
Preseason has been encouraging without being flawless. Tranmere beat Bootle, Blackpool and the PFA before a youthful side lost 3-1 to Altrincham in their final warm-up fixture. Okoro scored his first goal for the club during those preparations, while Male impressed with a clean sheet on his full debut.
Rochdale opened with defeat at FC United of Manchester before drawing with Al-Rayyan and Farnham Town, then finished with a 3-2 defeat to FC Halifax Town in a fiery contest that saw Luke Hannant sent off and Will Jenkins stretchered off with a knee injury.
How the bookies view it
Rochdale are favourites at 27/20, implying a 42.6% chance, with Tranmere priced at 2/1, implying 33.3%, while the draw is available at 5/2, implying 28.6%.
The goals market also points towards an open contest. Over 2.5 goals is 26/25, implying 49%, while both teams to score is 4/5, implying 55.6%.
Head to head: Dale hold a slight edge
The clubs have met 11 times, with Rochdale holding a narrow advantage of four wins to Tranmere's three, alongside four draws. Their most recent meeting came in April 2023 when the sides shared a 2-2 draw at Spotland.
Player to watch: Tom Ince in League Two could be fun to watch
Tom Ince is the standout signing of the summer and could make his Tranmere debut after missing all four preseason fixtures. The former Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Hull City, Huddersfield Town and Watford attacker still showed his quality last season despite limited opportunities.
He scored four Championship goals from just 10 starts and 1,019 league minutes, including a New Year's Day hat-trick against Birmingham City, while registering 36 shots and 15 efforts on target. If Clarke hands him an immediate debut, his experience and finishing ability could quickly make the difference.
Predicted line ups
Tranmere (4-3-3): Male; Senior, Smith, Turnbull, Slater; O'Connor, Finley, Conlon; Whitaker, Ironside, Ince.
Rochdale (4-3-3): Waller; East, Silcott-Duberry, Francis, Edwards; Pettit, Hannant, Moss; Jenkins, Sherring, Henderson.
Anything else catch the eye?
This fixture feels more likely to be decided by continuity than reputation. Tranmere have rebuilt significant areas of their squad under a new manager, while Rochdale have retained the nucleus of a promotion-winning side that already knows how to handle pressure.
Home advantage also carries less weight than usual. Tranmere won only four home league matches last season, whereas Rochdale were one of the National League's strongest travellers, collecting 15 away victories.
Will Jenkins' fitness is a slight concern after his injury against Halifax, but the visitors still look the more settled side heading into the opening competitive fixture.
My preferred angle is Rochdale draw no bet, with their stronger defensive platform, settled squad and impressive away record making them the more reliable selection this early in the season.
GambleAware