Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest
English Premier League, KO: 14:15 , Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest takes place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League with both sides under pressure to improve results.
Spurs arrive in poor form and sit 16th in the table with a record of W7-D9-L14. Their home record is a major concern at W2-D4-L9, one of the weakest in the division. Underlying numbers reflect the issues.
They average 1.24 NPxG at home but concede 1.55, while across the last eight matches they have allowed 1.94 xGA. Results have collapsed with just three points from the last five games and no wins across that stretch. Their matches remain open, with BTTS landing in 73% at home and 80% of their last ten overall.
Forest also struggle but arrive with slightly better recent stability. They sit 17th with W7-D8-L15 and have picked up points through draws. Away from home they are W4-D3-L8, conceding 1.60 goals per game. Their attacking output is modest at 1.20 NPxG away, but they still create chances, averaging 3.8 shots on target. Across the last eight matches they have generated 1.10 xG and conceded 1.73.
Both teams show defensive vulnerability with neither able to control games. Spurs allow high shot volume and Forest concede consistently on the road, which creates a matchup where chances at both ends should be expected.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Tottenham are priced at 11/8 in the match winner market, which equates to a 42.11% implied probability of a home victory. Nottingham Forest are available at 9/4, representing a 30.77% implied probability of an away win. The draw is priced at 5/2, which implies a 28.57% probability.
The goals markets indicate expectations of an open game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 19/20, which converts to a 51.28% implied probability of at least three goals.
Both teams to score is priced at 8/11, representing a 57.89% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Spurs edge it
The recent head to head between Tottenham and Nottingham Forest shows a competitive matchup with a slight edge to Spurs overall.
Across the last seven meetings, Spurs lead with four wins compared to Forest’s three, with no draws. The goal record stands at 11-8 in Spurs’ favour, averaging 2.71 goals per game, which points towards consistently open contests.
Recent results show a shift towards Forest. They have won the last three meetings, including a 3-0 victory in December and a 2-1 win away from home earlier in 2025. That run highlights a growing ability to exploit Spurs’ defensive issues.
Earlier meetings were dominated by Spurs, with three straight wins including two 3-1 victories and a 2-0 away success. Those games showed Spurs’ attacking control, but the recent swing suggests the gap has narrowed.
Players to watch: Gibbs White constant threat
Morgan Gibbs White to have 1+ shot on target stands out based on both season-long output and strong recent form.
He has recorded 66 shots with 22 on target this season, showing consistent involvement in Forest’s attacking play. That volume has increased in recent weeks, with 19 shots across his last seven Premier League matches. He has registered two or more shots in six of those games and three or more in four, highlighting a clear rise in activity.
Crucially, he has hit the target in six of his last seven league appearances, which shows a strong conversion from volume into on target efforts. His role supports this, operating in advanced midfield or forward positions where he is regularly involved in shooting phases.
Spurs’ defensive profile strengthens the angle. They concede 1.55 NPxGA at home and allow 9.8 shots in the box, creating consistent opportunities for opposition attackers.
With sustained shot volume, recent accuracy and a favourable matchup, Gibbs White is well placed to land 1+ shot on target.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham Hotspur (4-2-3-1): Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Gray, Sarr; Kolo Muani, Simons, Tel; Richarlison.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs White, Hutchinson; Jesus.
Anything else catch the eye?
This smatch sets up well for both teams to be carded, over 3.5 cards and Spurs to score based on consistent trends in discipline, chance volume and defensive weakness. Its a huge game with both managers and teams under pressure. Defeat here for either side could have serve consequences.
Spurs matches regularly produce cards. Both teams have been carded in 87% of their home games, while Forest see both teams carded in 67% away. That baseline already supports a strong probability of bookings at both ends. Referee Michael Oliver averages close to 3.0 cards per game, adding further support for at least four cards overall.
Spurs attacking numbers point towards a goal. They average 1.24 NPxG at home and produce 6.8 shots in the box across recent matches, while Forest concede 1.37 NPxGA away and allow 12.40 shots per game. Forest also concede 1.60 goals per away match, which highlights their defensive exposure.
Recent form strengthens this angle. Spurs games have seen both teams to score in 100% of the last four and 75% over eight matches, with high big chance volumes at both ends. Forest concede 1.85 xGA across the last four, showing ongoing defensive issues.
With Spurs creating chances, Forest allowing volume, and both sides consistently involved in card-heavy games, this combination aligns strongly with the data.
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