There’s a massive game in the North East of England on Sunday afternoon as Sunderland welcome Newcastle United to the Stadium of Light in the first Tyne-Wear derby in the Premier League in over nine years.
Sunderland suffered just their second defeat in their last eight Premier League matches last time out, as they lost 3-0 away at second-placed Manchester City, on an afternoon where I landed an 8/5 winner.
Whilst that was the Black Cats’ fourth loss on their travels this term, they remain unbeaten on home soil (W4-D3-L0), coming from two goals down to defeat Bournemouth 3-2 in their clash at the Stadium of Light.
Newcastle endured an incredibly slow start to the Premier League season, winning just three and losing five of their opening 11 matches (W3-D3-L5).
However, Eddie Howe’s men have gone on to win three of their next four (W3-D1-L0) – including victories at home to Manchester City and away at Everton – with their 2-1 success over Burnley last time out moving them up to 12th, just a point behind their rivals.
The Magpies were also in Champions League action in midweek, drawing 2-2 away at Bayer Leverkusen, leaving them just two points outside of the top eight in the league phase table.
How the bookies view it: Newcastle favourites
Despite being away from home, Newcastle travel to the Stadium of Light as favourites, with bet365 pricing an away success at 5/4.
Sunderland are 23/10 with the same firm to continue their strong home form this season, whilst the draw is also 23/10.
Head to head: Black Cats with the advantage
Newcastle won the last meeting between the sides in the third round of the FA Cup at the Stadium of Light in January 2024, but they haven’t beaten Sunderland in the Premier League since August 2011.
That’s a run of nine matches Sunderland are unbeaten against Newcastle in the Premier League (W6-D3-L0), with the Black Cats winning the last three in front of their supporters.
Players to watch: Duo to get an early Christmas card
It goes without saying that this should be a feisty encounter, not just because of the rivalry between the two clubs, but also due to the fact that this is the first Tyne-Wear derby in the Premier League in just under 10 years.
Two players who are no strangers to cards are Granit Xhaka and Dan Burn.
Xhaka has been booked four times for Sunderland this season following his summer switch from Bayer Leverkusen, whilst boyhood Newcastle fan his been carded six times in league and Europe, including two yellows in his sending off at Brentford last month.
Granit Xhaka is just 13/8 at bet365 to get his name taken in the referee’s notebook, but Dan Burn is 12/5 at William Hill, and as a single, is better value.
Predicted line-ups:
Sunderland look set to be without Aji Alese, Dennis Cirkin, Leo Fuhr Hjelde and Habib Diarra again through injury, whilst Luke O’Nien is suspended.
Newcastle will be missing the injured Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Emil Krafth, Joelinton and Will Osula.
Sunderland: Roefs, Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Reinaldo, Xhaka, Sadiki, Traore, Le Fee, Talbi, Isidor
Newcastle United: Ramsdale, Livramento, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Tonali, Guimaraes, Miley, Barnes, Gordon, Woltemade
Anything else catch the eye?
Quite often, derbies of this magnitude can be tight affairs, but I reckon this will be an entertaining encounter full of goals, cards and drama.
Sunderland’s opening seven home matches since promotion to the Premier League have averaged 3.00 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing on four (57%) occasions – including in each of the last two – whilst five of their last six have produced goals at both ends (3-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-1, 2-2 & 3-2).
After seeing just six goals scored across their opening five Premier League fixtures this season, Newcastle’s next 10 have averaged 3.49 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals paying out in nine (90%) of them (1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 1-3, 2-1, 4-1, 2-2 & 2-1).
Both Teams to Score pays 3/4 at Paddy Power, whilst Over 2.5 Goals pays 1/1 at bet365, and both selections appeal to me.
Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.
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