St Pauli and Hamburger clash at the Millerntor-Stadion to renew the ancient but lesser-known Hamburg derby, as both sides have identical needs for the three points in their fight for survival this season.
You will not hear much about the Hamburg derby, as neither side is particularly popular right now, but this will be the 113th edition of this fixture, and the stakes are enormous.
St Pauli are sitting dead last in the table after 17 games, but have a game in hand, and winning could send them just a point away from safety. Meanwhile, Hamburger are only four points clear of the drop zone, and losing to their rivals again could lead to bigger problems further down the line.
The rivals share similar statistics and successes during the season, being the two lowest-scoring teams in the league. There are defences worse than theirs, but in any case, they cannot boast about that either.
The Neighbourhood Kickers have a reason to feel confident, as they won 10/12 points this season against rivals from the bottom of the table, including Hamburg. Should they win at home, they will celebrate their first back-to-back Bundesliga wins at the Millerntor in 15 years.
How the bookies view it: As close as any derby
It was certainly not easy for bookmakers to assess this match, and this is evident in the odds. Although the hosts have a slight advantage, there is no real favourite.
At the moment, you can back St Pauli at 3/2, while Hamburger are available at 19/10. There are clearly relatively high expectations for a draw, as it is available at 11/5.
Recent head-to-head: St Pauli are trying to escape the past
As previously mentioned, this will be the 113th Hamburg derby since the teams first met in 1919, and the recent results have been quite interesting. Firstly, we can mention that HSV have won 70 of the 112 matches to date, while St Pauli can only boast 25 wins.
However, the Neighbourhood Kickers have been the team with the upper hand in recent years, winning five of the last 10 H2Hs. The reverse fixture in August was completely one-sided, and St Pauli gave Hamburger zero space to move or create chances.
Players to watch: Fernandes will be in the firing line again
We genuinely can’t highlight a single individual from the two teams and back him with confidence. After all, these are the two lowest-scoring teams in the Bundesliga. Not a single player has scored more than four goals this season, and a couple of the top goalscorers are also out with injuries.
In a match like this one, where both sides not only get an opportunity to play a struggling team, but also a rival, we can opt for the goalkeeper markets.
For instance, Hamburg’s Fernandes averages 3.0 saves per match, and Betano offer 7/10 for 3+ saves against St Pauli. Just FYI, he made four saves in the reverse fixture.
Probable line-ups
St Pauli: Vasilj, Dzwigala, Wahl, Mets, Pyrka, Sands, Smith, Ritzka, Fujita, Lage, Kaars
Hamburger: Fernandes, Elfadli, Vuskovic, Torunarigha, Muheim, Remberg, Vieira, Jatta, Dompe, Downs, Konigsdorffer
Anything else catch the eye?
Fans of the two sides have witnessed countless crazy fixtures between their teams, although the last few were far less attractive in terms of goals. But the stakes are high here, and both teams struggle defensively.
Of course, it is always possible that their issues up front prevent them from scoring too, but we expect a more competitive fixture than the first one. St Pauli won in August, and we expect them to do it again, but not without Hamburg scoring at least once.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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