Kosovo are just 180 minutes away from reaching their first World Cup finals as an independent nation, but standing in their way is the national team of Slovakia, which hasn’t lost at home in nearly two years.
Slovakia’s path to the playoffs wasn’t all that difficult, aside from their recent heavy loss to Germany (6-0). They were in a favorable group and won four of their six matches.
Kosovo had to work a bit harder, but their performance in the group stage was sensational—just one loss on the road in Switzerland and wins over Sweden and Slovenia.
Both teams rely on solid defence and don’t concede many goals. At the same time, they don’t score many goals either, so this alone gives us a few ideas about how this match might unfold.
Slovakia have certainly impressed with its home form, not conceding a single goal in their three home matches, even defeating Germany 2-0. Kosovo, meanwhile, haven’t lost any of their last five matches, conceding just one goal in the process.
How the bookies view it: Slovakia's home form will make the difference
Bookmakers expect a closely contested match, but they favor the home side despite Kosovo’s excellent form.
Currently, Slovakia are listed at 11/10, while Kosovo are priced at 27/10. A draw also looks like a possible outcome, with bookmakers offering 9/4.
Recent head-to-head: A new European rivalry
In the few years that Kosovo have been an independent nation, they haven’t had the chance to meet Slovakia in an official match. This will be the inaugural clash between these two nations.
Players to watch: Leave it to Muriqi
This is not the most suitable fixture for player bets, as neither team was among the high-scoring nations in the group stage. But there are some options if you are keen on a goalscorer bet.
Namely, we like what Kosovo’s Vedat Muriqi has accomplished this season with Mallorca in Spain, and this is his most successful season in front of the goal. The 31-year-old has 18 La Liga goals this season and has already scored once in the qualifications for the 2-0 win over Sweden.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Slovakia: Dubravka, Hancko, Obert, Skriniar, Gyomber, Rigo, Duda, Lobotka, Duris, Strelec, Sauer
Kosovo: Muric, Dellova, Rrahmani, Gallapeni, Aliti, Vojvoda, Musliga, Rexhbecaj, Hodza, Asslani, Muriqi
Anything else catch the eye?
We see two possible outcomes for this match, both of which involve a low number of goals.
Both Kosovo and Slovakia have been impressive defensively, and we don’t expect them to change their style of play at such a crucial stage. It’s possible that one of the teams will win by a narrow margin, or that we’ll see a low-scoring draw like 0-0 or 1-1.
Given Slovakia’s strong home form, but also the fact that Kosovo defeated Slovenia and Sweden on the road without conceding a goal, we’ll take a chance on a draw, as well as under 2.5 goals.
Alternatively, we expect a good number of bookings in this clash, due to the high stakes and the fact that it is a one-leg playoff.
GambleAware