Birmingham City travel to Bramall Lane to play Sheffield United on Saturday, kicking off at 5.30pm, as both clubs begin their 2026/27 Championship campaigns.
Sheffield United finished 13th last season on 60 points, but their underlying numbers suggest Chris Wilder's side deserved considerably more. Their 74.24 xPTS was one of the larger gaps between performance and results anywhere in the Championship.
That strength was visible home and away, with United ranking seventh for home xPTS and fifth away. Results never matched the process, particularly on the road, where they collected only 29 points from 23 matches.
The summer has still brought some uncertainty. Parachute payments have now ended, Gustavo Hamer has moved back to Coventry City and Andre Brooks has joined Norwich City. Matt Doherty has arrived on a free transfer from Wolves while Kalvin Phillips has again joined on loan from Manchester City.
Birmingham finished 10th on 64 points, almost exactly matching their 65.83 xPTS. Their home and away numbers were much less balanced. City averaged 1.62 xG and 0.97 xGA at home, compared with only 0.83 xG and 1.25 xGA away.
That translated into the fifth best home xPTS record in the Championship, but only 19th away. The actual results were worse again, with Birmingham winning five, drawing five and losing 13 of their 23 away matches. Their 20 away points ranked 21st in the division.
Dael Fry has arrived on a free transfer from Middlesbrough to strengthen the defence, while last season's leading scorer Kyogo Furuhashi has left for LA Galaxy. The Blues have also brought in Luis Vazquez from Anderlecht and Jhon Solis Romero returns from Girona.
Sheffield United have also produced a strong preseason. They beat Huddersfield Town 3-1 and Rotherham United 2-0 before drawing 0-0 with Bochum. Their first competitive game brought another positive result, beating Mansfield Town 3-0 away in the Carabao Cup through goals from Patrick Bamford, Mark McGuinness and Callum O'Hare.
Birmingham's results have been equally strong. They beat Burton Albion 1-0, Northampton Town 2-0 and Crewe Alexandra 2-1 before drawing 2-2 with Barcelona and winning the resulting penalty shootout. They then opened their competitive campaign with a 1-0 Carabao Cup win at Swansea City, August Priske scoring the winner.
The Swansea performance was less convincing than the result. Birmingham struggled during the opening stages, with Paik Seung-Ho short of full fitness and playing out of position, while Jay Stansfield started from the left with Demarai Gray unavailable. Chris Davies pointed towards pressing and set pieces as key reasons for the victory rather than Birmingham controlling the game through possession.
How the bookies view it
Sheffield United are 6/4, implying a 40% chance of winning. The draw is 11/5 at 31.2%, while Birmingham are 19/10 at 34.5%.
Over 2.5 goals is evens, implying 50%, while both teams to score is 4/5 at 55.6%.
Head to head: Honours even
These sides have met 11 times since 2017 across the Championship and Carabao Cup, with three wins each and five draws.
Their most recent meeting finished 1-1 at St Andrew's in March 2026. Sheffield United's latest victory was a 3-0 win at Bramall Lane in December 2025, the biggest winning margin either side has recorded in this fixture across the last decade.
Draws have been a consistent feature. Five of their 10 Championship meetings during that period finished level.
Player to watch: August Priske has a big season in store
August Priske has made an encouraging start, retaining his place from the side that drew with Barcelona before scoring Birmingham's winner at Swansea.
His longer-term numbers are less convincing. Priske finished last season with one goal and one assist from 17 appearances following his January arrival, scoring once from 21 shots. He initially struggled for starts before earning more regular minutes late in the campaign.
The early signs this summer have been better, but Bramall Lane represents a much tougher test of whether that improvement carries into the Championship.
Predicted line ups
Sheffield United (3-5-2): Cooper; Tanganga, Cannon, McGuinness; Rothwell, Peck, Seriki, Norrington-Davies; Chong, O'Hare; Bamford.
Birmingham City (4-3-3): Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Solis, Iwata, Paik; Stansfield, Priske, Vicente.
Anything else catch the eye?
Sheffield United are the side I want on my side here. Their 13th-place finish last season looks poor against 74.24 xPTS, with the underlying data rating them much closer to the promotion picture than the final table suggests. Their pre-season has reinforced that view, with three wins and a draw across four matches, eight goals scored and only one conceded.
Birmingham's results have been equally impressive, but their away numbers from last season remain difficult to ignore. Five wins from 23 away Championship matches produced only 20 points, ranking 21st, while their underlying away performance ranked only slightly better at 19th. Their 0.83 xG per away game was also a major drop from the 1.62 they averaged at home.
Bramall Lane therefore looks a difficult opening assignment, particularly against a Sheffield United side whose underlying home numbers were already among the stronger in the Championship last season.
The draw remains the obvious danger. Five of the last 10 Championship meetings finished level, including the most recent meeting in March. That makes the draw no bet market particularly appealing because it removes the result that has repeatedly caused problems in this fixture without requiring Sheffield United to justify the shorter protection of a double chance.
My main bet is Sheffield United draw no bet at 4/5. The 4/5 price implies 55.6%, and I prefer taking the stake back if another draw materialises rather than backing the straight Sheffield United win at 6/4.
GambleAware