Serbia meet Latvia on Sunday in the final round of World Cup qualifying, with the game played in Belgrade at the end of a campaign that has already confirmed the finishing order in Group K.
Serbia sit third with ten points from seven matches, while Latvia are fourth with five points. The competitive stakes may be limited, but both sides arrive with clear trends in their underlying data that shape expectations for this match.
Serbia’s campaign has been uneven. They have won three, drawn one and lost three, scoring seven and conceding nine. Their results include a heavy 5-0 home defeat to England and a narrow 1-0 loss to Albania, but they have also beaten Latvia away and Andorra twice. Their underlying numbers reflect that mixed pattern.
Serbia have averaged around fourteen shots per match and just under four shots on target, yet their conversion rate has been low. Defensively they have allowed steady volume, particularly against the stronger sides, and their xPTS profile mirrors a team that has controlled games in patches but struggled to sustain pressure.
Latvia’s record is more modest. They have won once, drawn twice and lost four, scoring four and conceding thirteen. Their shooting numbers show a side that carries limited threat. They average seven shots per game and only two on target, with a low goal output that matches their process.
Their defensive data is heavier, especially in the defeats to England and Albania, where they struggled to escape long spells without the ball. In head to head terms Latvia have not scored across the two meetings with Serbia in this cycle.
Both teams approach the game with little tactical uncertainty. Serbia will be expected to dominate territory and possession at home, while Latvia are likely to sit deep, protect space and look for counter moments. The statistical profile of both sides indicates a controlled match where Serbia’s structure and attacking edge should allow them to create the better chances.
How the bookies view it: Hosts strong favourites
Serbia are clear favourites for this one at 3/13, which gives them an implied probability of about 81%. That reflects their stronger qualifying record, their three wins in the group and the way they handled the reverse fixture with a controlled 1-0 victory in Riga.
The draw is priced at 23/4, converting to an implied chance of roughly 15%. Latvia have taken only one point from their last five qualifiers, so the market expects them to sit deep and limit damage rather than push for a result.
Latvia are sizeable outsiders at 14/1, an implied probability of around 7%. They have scored four goals in seven qualifiers and struggled to create chances in every game against the top three sides, which explains why the market sees a Latvian win as highly unlikely.
For goals, over 2.5 is 7/12, suggesting an implied chance close to 63%. Both teams to score is 13/10, equating to roughly 43%. Those prices lean towards the possibility of goals, but Latvia’s limited output and Serbia’s habit of keeping their wins under control suggest the market still leans more towards Serbia-driven scoring rather than a free-flowing contest.
Overall, the prices indicate confidence in a Serbia win, moderate expectation of goals and limited faith in Latvia’s attacking contribution.
Head to Head: Only second meeting
Serbia hold the advantage in the recent head-to-head, winning the only meeting between the sides in this qualifying cycle. That match took place in September, where Serbia claimed a 1-0 victory in Riga. It was a tight game decided by a single moment, but Serbia carried the greater control throughout and created the stronger chances.
Latvia played with a deep defensive shape and spent long periods protecting their penalty area, while Serbia pushed the game in the final third without allowing many clear opportunities at the other end.
Players to watch: Vlahovic to end the campaign strongly
Dusan Vlahovic looks a strong candidate for an anytime goal in Serbia’s meeting with Latvia. His qualifying record shows steady shot volume across the campaign, and his numbers in the reverse fixture underline why he should be a threat again. When Serbia won 1-0 in Riga, he scored the winner and produced five shots with three on target, finding good positions inside the box and consistently stretching the Latvia back line.
Across his seven qualifying appearances he has taken twenty eight shots, averaging four per match, with nine on target. That level of involvement is notable given Serbia’s mixed results and long spells of frustration in several games. Even in tight matches he has still generated attempts. He took five shots against Andorra at home, four against Albania, and six in the away win in Andorra where he scored again.
Latvia’s defensive record also works in his favour. They have conceded thirteen goals in seven games, kept no clean sheets against the top three sides in the group, and allowed Serbia nineteen shots and an xG of around 1.3 in the earlier meeting.
Their structure tends to sit deep and absorb pressure, which often leaves space for Serbia’s forwards to work around the penalty area. Vlahovic’s ability to pin centre backs and attack crosses fits well with the way Serbia build in these fixtures.
With Serbia expected to dominate the ball and produce the higher share of chances, his consistent shot output and proven record against this opponent gives him a fair chance of finding the net again.
Predicted line-ups
Serbia (4-2-3-1): Rajkovic, Mimovic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic, Terzic, Gudelj, Lukic, Zivkovic, Samardzic, Kostic, Vlahovic
Latvia (5-4-1): Matrevics, Jurkovskis, Savlienieks, Balodis, Cernomordijs, Ciganiks, Ikaunieks, Zelenkovs, Vapne, Daskevics, Gutkovskis
Anything else catch the eye?
Serbia to win and under 3.5 goals aligns neatly with how both sides have played throughout this qualifying cycle. Serbia have taken three wins from seven matches, and every one of those victories has come in a controlled, low-scoring game.
Their wins read 3-0 against Andorra, 1-0 away in Latvia and 3-0 in the return match with Andorra. Even the loss to Albania finished 1-0. The only match to break that pattern was the 5-0 defeat to England, which has been the clear outlier in their campaign.
Their underlying numbers point toward another steady affair. Serbia average around fourteen shots per match but only turn roughly four of those into shots on target. That translates to seven goals across seven matches, a return that highlights their habit of dominating possession without producing high totals.
Their xPTS profile shows a side that has controlled large periods in games but without the cutting edge to turn matches into wide-scoreline wins.
Latvia’s figures support the same angle. They have scored four goals across seven qualifiers and regularly produce around two shots on target per game. They have failed to score in both meetings with England, along with the losses to Albania and Serbia, and their attacking output has stayed low throughout.
Their defensive record with thirteen conceded shows vulnerability, but their matches rarely open up enough for the totals to climb, with the Albania, Serbia and Andorra fixtures all landing under four point five goals.
The earlier meeting between these sides finished 1-0 to Serbia, and both shot profiles match the rhythm of that game. Serbia have the stronger structure, the better chance creation and the more reliable defensive record. Latvia defend deep, offer minimal threat and keep matches slower. That combination makes Serbia to win and under 3.5 goals a solid fit.
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