SC Freiburg vs Bayer LeverkusenGerman Bundesliga, KO: 19:30 May 29, 2020, Schwarzwald-Stadion
BAYER LEVERKUSEN will be looking to bounce back from their Wolfsburg walloping when they travel to Freiburg.
Like most people, I fancied Leverkusen to win in midweek after an impressive return to Bundesliga action but they were ripped apart and could have suffered a heavier beating than their 4-1 defeat (below).
Peter Bosz's side just couldn't cope with Wolfsburg in the air and my tip of a header being scored came up as Oliver Glasner's men nodded home three times.
With leaders Bayern Munich beating Dortmund on the same night, the shock loss all but ended Leverkusen's faint title hopes, leaving them 11 points behind with six games to go.
Bosz's side still have plenty to play for, however, as they are involved in a four-team battle with Monchengladbach, Leipzig and Dortmund for the three other Champions League slots.
Freiburg have already taken points off Leipzig since the Bundesliga's resumption, drawing 1-1 away in the first game back, so they will now be looking to trip up Leverkusen.
But Christian Streich's men threw away a two-goal lead at Frankfurt in midweek, conceding twice in the last 11 minutes in a thrilling 3-3 draw, and have struggled for consistency.
How the bookies view it
Despite that midweek slip-up, Leverkusen remain favourites for this one at a best 3/4 with Skybet. Freiburg are as big as 19/5 with William Hill while the draw is 31/10 with VBet.
With such a short turnaround between games it could boil down to who has the superior squad and that is Leverkusen.
Recent head to head
Three of the last four games between these sides have ended level, with Freiburg claiming a 1-1 draw in Leverkusen earlier in the season.
Bayer's record in Freiburg is poor, going without a win in their last five visits since a 2-1 Cup success in 2013. But the lack of fans in football's strange new world has made home advantage less of a factor, with only five home wins in 27 Bundesliga games since the resumption.
Players to watch
I'd expect both managers to make some changes amid a busy schedule so there may be some bargains in the anytime scorer market. Leon Bailey came off the bench for Leverkusen in midweek and the livewire could start here. Bailey is 2/1 with Paddy Power and that's decent value if he does indeed get the nod from Bosz (below).
Nils Petersen scored when he came off the bench for Freiburg in Frankfurt and that should be enough to him a start. The forward is 12/5 with Paddy Power for a goal here.
Anything else catch the eye?
Defending crosses is clearly and Achilles heel for Leverkusen. In addition to those three headers conceded in midweek, Leverkusen also let George Edmundson of Rangers nod home in their Europa League clash before the Covid-19 lockdown.
Backing a headed goal paid off for me in midweek so I will go for it again here at 5/4 with William Hill. Freiburg will look to win free-kicks and corners so also try backing them to win more corners than Leverkusen at 47/20 with 888Sport.
The last two games between these sides in Freiburg ended in 0-0 stalemates and a repeat here pays 16/1 with Bet365. But given the way both sides defended in midweek I'm more inclined to back over 3/5 strikes at 6/4 with 888Sport.
This German Bundesliga match between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will be played on May 29, 2020 and kick off at 19:30. Check below for our tipsters best SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction.