Qarabag FK play host to Ajax on Wednesday evening knowing that they have the opportunity to take a significant step towards qualifying for the Champions League knockout phase.
With three matches of the League Phase remaining, the Azerbaijani giants sit in 19th position in the standings having collected seven points from their five matches.
Meanwhile, Ajax make the trip to Baku already at the point of no return, realistically being required to win their remaining three fixtures to have the slimmest of chances of finishing in the top 24.
Ajax are the only team to have lost all five of their matches, conceding 15 goals in the process. The only goal that they have scored is a penalty in a 5-1 defeat to Chelsea.
How the bookies see it: Qarabag favourites, but don't rule Ajax
As per current form, bookmakers Bet365 are justified in making Qarabag the 10/11 favourites, but it cannot be ignored that this is arguably one of the biggest matches in their history.
With that in mind, there is arguably value in Ajax prevailing at 27/10 and the draw at 29/10. Given that only a win will do for the visitors, expect an attack-minded performance.
Head to head: Ajax dominate the only past meeting
Ajax may be the underdogs heading into Wednesday's fixture, but they stormed to victory on the solitary occasion that these teams have met in the past.
That was as recently as October 2024, again in this stage of the Champions League. Kenneth Taylor, Wout Weghorst and Chuba Akpom all getting on the scoresheet in a 3-0 win in Baku.
However, it should be noted that Qarabag had a player – Julio Romao – sent off in the 15th minute and were reduced to nine men with 11 minutes remaining.
Player to watch: Qarabag attackers to deliver again?
A number of Qarabag attackers have consistently delivered in this season's Champions League, none more so than Leandro Andrade who has three goals from five appearances.
His strikes have come away at Benfica and Athletic Bilbao, as well as the famous 2-2 draw with Chelsea, to showcase that he can handle the big occasion.
From Ajax's perspective, both Mika Godts and Weghorst have scored six goals each in the Eredivisie, with 20-year-old Godts also having five assists to his name.
Godts is one of only two players to start each of Ajax's five Champions League fixtures in the League Phase.
Probable lineups:
Gurban Gurbanov may be against making many changes from the team that earned a 1-1 draw at second-placed Zira FC in the Azerbaijani top flight on Saturday.
Having started the last Champions League fixture at Napoli, Elfin Cafarquilyev and Marko Jankovic – at full-back and in midfield respectively – are most likely to be recalled.
Weghorst is likely to miss out for Ajax after suffering a foot injury against Fortuna Sittard last time out.
Kasper Dolberg could be introduced into the team as a straight replacement. With Feyenoord to come at the weekend, Fred Grim must weigh up whether to rotate his team.
Neither side have any players suspended for this contest.
Qarabag FK: Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Bayramov; Montiel, Bicalho, Andrade; Kashchuk, Duran, Sheydayev
Ajax: Jaros; Regeer, Bouwman, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Itakura, Gloukh; Bounida, Weghorst, Godts
Anything else catch the eye?
Qarabag have collected four points from their two home League Phase fixtures, a 2-0 win over Copenhagen being followed by a 2-2 draw versus Chelsea.
In sharp contrast, Ajax have conceded nine goals in away defeats at Marseille and Chelsea respectively.
On the domestic front, Qarabag have conceded just six goals in 13 matches. Ajax have only kept one clean sheet in 17 matches in all competitions, albeit that coming on December 2 against Groningen.
Furthermore, Ajax have conceded 13 times in seven away fixtures in this season's Eredivisie, winning just twice and posting four draws.
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