Portugal vs SwitzerlandNations League, KO: 19:45 Jun 5, 2019, Estadio Do Dragao
PLENTY of punters will fancy Portugal to ease into the Nations League Final on home soil with Cristiano Ronaldo back to inspire them against the Swiss.
But the European champions have been in poor form of late and haven't won a game since skelping Alex McLeish's dismal Scotland side 3-1 in a Hampden friendly way back in October.
Their four matches since then – against Italy, Poland, Ukraine and Serbia – have all ended in stalemates and those last two draws will be worrying boss Fernando Santos.
Both were at home in the Euro 2020 qualifiers and taking just two points from those opening fixtures has left Portugal with a mountain to climb if they're to claim top spot in their group.
That poor start to the qualifiers makes the Nations League even more important as Portugal will want to have a back-up in place in case the unthinkable happens and they miss out on automatic qualification.
So they will be taking this match seriously which explains why Ronaldo hasn't been given the summer off after his exertions with Juventus.
The 34-year-old was injured in the 1-1 draw with Serbia in March, coming off after half an hour, but has been looking sharp in training and will start here.
It's no surprise to see the superstar head the goalscorer markets, with Ronaldo 5/2 at Paddy Power to open the scoring and 5/6 with the same firm to net at any time.
But Portugal are becoming less reliant on their talisman and the emergence of Benfica starlet Joao Felix has many pundits predicting we're about to see the next big thing.
The 19-year-old winger has been linked with transfers over the £100 million mark with Manchester United rumoured to be leading the chase.
After netting 18 times for Benfica this season, including a hat-trick in the Europa League against Eintracht Frankfurt, the winger could be handed his first senior cap against the Swiss. Sadly, he's a best 2/1 with Betway in the anytime scorer market but try backing him for last scorer at 6/1 with Bet365, given he may come off the bench.
The kid was surprisingly booed by fans in Oporto as he drove towards team HQ earlier this week but that was down to club rivalry. Those jeers will turn to cheers if he grabs a debut goal and I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
The Portuguese have plenty of goal threats so it could also be wise to back Man City's Bernando Silva in the anytime scorer market at 9/2 with Paddy Power.
Portugal are heavy favourites, with the best price 69/100 at Marathonbet, but a few punters might fancy the Swiss at 93/20 with the same firm as that seems very generous. However, I'll be backing a draw over 90 minutes, given Portugal's recent record and the fact Switzerland's last game was also a 3-3 stalemate with Denmark. Another draw is a best 29/10 with Marathonbet.
They led 3-0 with six minutes to go that night only for a defensive collapse to gift the Danes a point in the Euro qualifiers. That suggests the Swiss defence isn't a strong as it used to be so both teams to score looks a good option at evens with William Hill.
Swiss playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri will come into the game on a high after winning the Champions League with Liverpool even though he failed to get off the bench. Shaqiri has been used sparingly by the Reds in the second half of the season so he will be fresh and fired up for international duty.
His price for first goalscorer has been boosted to a generous 11/1 with Skybet but I'll play it a little safer and just back him for anytime scorer at 5/1 with Paddy Power.
This Nations League match between Portugal and Switzerland will be played on Jun 5, 2019 and kick off at 19:45