Port Vale host Sunderland at Vale Park on Sunday in the FA Cup fifth round, with the League One side attempting to extend a memorable cup run against Premier League opposition.
The Valiants arrive in difficult league circumstances. Port Vale sit bottom of League One and trail safety by 10 points, although games in hand on the teams around them offer a route back into the survival battle. Their recent run shows improvement. Vale have lost only two of their last seven league matches and secured two wins in their last three games in all competitions.
One of those victories produced the biggest moment of their season. Jon Brady’s side defeated Championship Bristol City 1-0 after extra time to reach the fifth round for the first time since 1996. Ben Waine scored the decisive goal late in the second period of extra time.
The FA Cup run has also contributed to Vale’s league position, with several League One fixtures postponed during their progress in the competition.
Sunderland arrive in strong condition during their return to the Premier League. The Black Cats have adapted well after nearly 10 years away from the top flight and sit on 40 points after 29 league matches with a record of W10-D10-L9.
Their latest result came on Tuesday night when club record signing Habib Diarra scored the only goal from the penalty spot in a 1-0 victory over fellow promoted side Leeds United.
Sunderland also navigated a difficult FA Cup route, beating Oxford United and overcoming Everton on penalties to reach this stage.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Port Vale are priced at 67/10 in the match winner market, which equates to a 12.99% implied probability of a home victory. The draw is available at 4/1, representing a 20.00% chance, while Sunderland are priced at 4/9, implying a 69.23% probability of an away win.
The goals markets indicate expectations of a moderately open contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11, which converts to a 52.38% implied probability of at least three goals. Both teams to score is available at 11/10, representing a 47.62% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Black Cats strong
The recent head to head record between Port Vale and Sunderland is limited but decisive. Across the last three meetings in all competitions, Sunderland have won all three matches. The aggregate score across those games is 6-2 in Sunderland’s favour, an average margin of -1.33 per game from Port Vale’s perspective, with 2.67 total goals per match.
In November 2018 the sides met in the FA Cup at Vale Park. Sunderland secured a 2-1 victory, progressing from the first round tie after producing the stronger attacking performance.
The teams met twice again in 2021. Sunderland recorded a 2-0 home win in the EFL Trophy in January, controlling the match and keeping a clean sheet. Later that year, in August, the Black Cats travelled to Vale Park in the EFL Cup and won 2-1 to maintain their winning run in the fixture.
Players to watch: Ballard strong from set pieces
Dan Ballard offers value in the shots on target or anytime scorer markets ahead of Sunderland’s FA Cup trip to Port Vale.
The centre back carries a clear aerial threat from set pieces. Across his Premier League campaign he has taken 24 shots with nine on target, returning two goals from defence. That volume highlights how regularly he attacks deliveries into the box.
His first goal came in the 3-0 win over West Ham where he produced four shots and two efforts on target. He also scored in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, again arriving from defensive areas to create chances.
Sunderland’s FA Cup attack has also leaned heavily on set pieces this season, with both of their goals in the competition coming from dead ball situations.
That pattern increases the likelihood of Ballard attacking corners and wide free kicks, giving him a strong route to register a shot on target or score.
Predicted line-ups
Port Vale (3-4-2-1): Gauci; Hall, Humphreys, Heneghan; John, Ojo, Hall, Gordon; Archer, Shipley; Stockley.
Sunderland (4-2-3-1): Ellborg; Geertruida, Ballard, Alderete, O'Nien; Diarra, Le Fee; Rigg, Talbi, Angulo; Mayenda.
Anything else catch the eye?
Sunderland to win and under 4.5 goals stands out as a strong angle when Port Vale host the Black Cats in the FA Cup fifth round at Vale Park on Sunday.
The visitors arrive with a clear quality advantage. Sunderland compete in the Premier League and have collected 40 points from 29 matches. Their latest result, a 1-0 win against Leeds United, highlights the disciplined approach which has driven their season.
That same pattern appears in their FA Cup run. Sunderland defeated Oxford United through a penalty scored by Habib Diarra and edged past Everton via a shootout. Both goals scored by the Black Cats in the competition came from set pieces, one following a throw in and one from the penalty spot. They remain the only side left in the fifth round yet to score from open play.
The visitors have no relegation fears in the Premier League and this will allow them to focus on this cup competition.
Port Vale enter the match from the bottom of League One and sit 10 points from safety. Their priority has to be league survival. There is no pressure on the hosts to progress but the quality of the Premier League should be too much for them to overcome.
Those factors point toward a Sunderland win in a match likely decided without a high scoring outcome.
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