Nottingham Forest face Vitoria de Guimaraes at the Estadio de Nora on Sunday, with the game played behind closed doors as part of a 12-day training camp in Portugal. It is the middle fixture of Forest's stay in the Algarve, following their meeting with Blackburn Rovers and before a final test against Sporting Lisbon.
Vitoria finished ninth in the Primeira Liga last season with 42 points, completing a solid if unspectacular mid-table campaign. Their home record was slightly stronger, with W8-D4-L5 from 17 matches earning them 28 points and seventh place in the home-only standings. More than half of their total points were therefore collected on their own ground.
The underlying numbers closely matched their final position. Vitoria recorded 44 xPTS across the campaign, only two more than their actual return, while producing 40.7 xG and conceding 47.9 xGA. Their attacking output was modest by Primeira Liga standards, averaging 3.9 shots on target per match with an 8.6% conversion rate. Only 54 big chances were created all season, ranking 17th of 18 clubs, although 712 touches inside the opposition penalty area was a healthier eighth.
Forest endured a far more turbulent campaign, finishing 16th in the Premier League with 44 points after spending long periods involved in the relegation battle. Their domestic struggles were contrasted by an unlikely run to the Europa League semi-finals, but that was not enough to prevent another managerial change during the summer.
Oliver Glasner has become Forest's fifth permanent manager in 12 months, following Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, Sean Dyche and Vitor Pereira. He arrives after the most successful spell in Crystal Palace's history, winning the FA Cup, Community Shield and Europa Conference League during two and a half years at Selhurst Park.
The early signs have been encouraging. Glasner began with a 2-0 victory away at Notts County, with Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo scoring either side of half-time, before Forest followed that with another win against Blackburn in Portugal. Jesus and Kalimuendo were both on target again, while Taiwo Awoniyi scored his first goal of preseason.
Glasner has confirmed this fixture will be played across two 60-minute halves as he looks to gradually increase the workload placed on his squad. He has also agreed a compromise with Forest's World Cup players that will see some return slightly earlier than originally planned, although those still on their extended breaks are unlikely to feature here.
His first signing has already arrived, with Austrian international Xaver Schlager joining on a free transfer from RB Leipzig. Glasner knows the midfielder well from their time together at Wolfsburg, although Schlager started all four of Austria's World Cup matches and is therefore unlikely to be involved at this stage.
Forest have also experienced substantial squad turnover. Elliot Anderson has joined Manchester City for a British-record £135 million, David Carmo has moved to Olympiacos and Jota Silva has joined the same club on loan. Angus Gunn and Stefan Ortega have both left the goalkeeping department, Willy Boly departed after the expiry of his contract and Lorenzo Lucca returned to Napoli following the end of his loan.
Vitoria come into the game following two victories on the same day. Tiago Margarido's side beat Penafiel 5-0 in a match played across three 30-minute periods, with Joao Mendes, Alioune Ndoye, Oumar Camara and Beni scoring alongside an own goal. They then defeated Academica OAF 2-0 despite the accumulated fatigue caused by playing twice within a matter of hours.
Margarido described the performances as positive signs of a team continuing to evolve week by week. This fixture concludes Vitoria's Algarve training camp, which has run from 20 to 26 July, and should provide their strongest test of preseason so far.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing, there are no odds available for this fixture
Head to head: First meeting between these two
This will be the first meeting between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Nottingham Forest.
Player to watch: Neco Williams in new wing back role
Neco Williams operated as one of the wing-backs in Oliver Glasner's new system against Blackburn, offering Forest an attacking outlet from a much more advanced position than the one he occupied for most of last season.
The Wales international started 36 of his 37 appearances during the previous campaign, usually at left-back, and contributed two goals and three assists. He also registered 46 shots, with 19 hitting the target, numbers that underline the attacking threat he can provide when given licence to move forward.
Glasner's preferred back-three system should suit those qualities, but it will also place greater demands on Williams to balance his attacking contribution with his defensive responsibilities. How quickly he adapts to the role will be one of the more interesting features of Forest's preseason.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-1-2): Sels; Cunha, Milenkovic, Morato; Aina, Dominguez, Yates, Williams; McAtee, Gibbs-White; Jesus.
Vitoria de Guimaraes (4-3-3): Castillo; Rocha, G Nogueira, M Nogueira, Costinha; R Silva, G Silva, Santiago Verdi; Mendes, Camara, Ndoye.
Anything else catch the eye?
The unusual format of two 60-minute halves reinforces that this is primarily a fitness and cohesion exercise for Forest rather than a genuine tactical dress rehearsal. Glasner is still introducing a new shape, several World Cup players remain unavailable and the team is likely to feature many of the same fringe and academy names used against Notts County and Blackburn.
There have nevertheless been some encouraging attacking signs. Forest have scored five goals across their opening two games under Glasner, with Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo finding the net in both. The pair already appear comfortable within the new structure, while Taiwo Awoniyi's goal against Blackburn gives Glasner another forward option as he assesses the balance of his attack.
The defensive side of the system remains less settled. Forest allowed Blackburn several promising openings early in their previous game, which is understandable while players adjust to the demands of a back three and more aggressive wing-backs. That vulnerability could offer Vitoria opportunities despite their underwhelming attacking numbers last season.
Only one Primeira Liga side created fewer big chances than Vitoria during the previous campaign, while their 3.9 shots on target per match ranked in the bottom half. Their preseason form has been considerably more positive, however, with seven goals scored across the victories over Penafiel and Academica OAF. Those opponents were weaker than Forest, but the results suggest Margarido's squad are growing in confidence around the penalty area.
Both sides are therefore bringing encouraging attacking form into a match involving two defences that are unlikely to be fully settled. Forest are still learning a new system, while Vitoria will be playing their third match within a short period at the end of a demanding training camp.
If a market becomes available, both teams to score would be the early lean. Forest have carried a consistent threat in their first two games under Glasner, but the chances conceded against Blackburn suggest Vitoria should also have opportunities to contribute.
Nottingham Forest vs Vitoria de Guimaraes Betting Tips & Predictions
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