Nottingham Forest vs Everton takes place in the Premier League at the City Ground on Tuesday evening. Nottingham Forest return home looking to build on a steadier recent spell.
Over the last eight league games they average 1.45 xG and concede 1.26 xGA, producing a broadly balanced profile. Results reflect that balance. Forest have taken 13 points from that run, outperforming their 11.68 xPTS slightly, with three clean sheets helping to stabilise performances.
At the City Ground they remain competitive rather than dominant, generating steady shots in the box volume without sustained pressure. Forest games often hinge on fine margins, with low scoring first halves and cautious second phases once level.
Everton arrive after a frustrating period. They are winless in their last three league games, including a goalless draw away at Burnley, and have scored only nine goals across their last 10 matches. Over the last eight games Everton average 1.03 xG and concede 1.18 xGA, reflecting limited attacking output but a relatively compact defensive structure.
Away from home, Everton’s numbers remain conservative. Their away xPTS sits just above 10 across the last eight, closely matched by actual points, with little deviation between performance and results.
Availability remains an issue for Everton. They continue to miss key attacking contributors, which has reduced creativity and shot volume in recent matches. That has pushed Everton toward deeper defensive blocks and lower tempo game plans, particularly away from home.
This fixture sets up as a measured contest. Forest hold a slight home edge but lack the firepower to dominate. Everton travel with caution, prioritising structure over ambition. The City Ground atmosphere should keep the game competitive, but the underlying profiles suggest control is shared rather than imposed.
How the bookies view it: Forest Favourites
Nottingham Forest are priced at 5/4 in the match winner market, implying a 44.4% chance. The draw sits at 23/10, which equates to 30.3%. Everton are priced at 13/5, implying a 27.8% chance.
The goals markets are more cautious. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 6/5, implying a 45.5% chance, while both teams to score sits at 19/20, equating to 51.3%. That gap shows the market is more confident in both teams scoring than in the game pushing beyond three goals.
Head to Head: Toffees edge it with goals at a premium
Across the last seven Premier League meetings, Everton have won four, Forest one, with two draws. Everton have scored 10 goals in that run, Forest five, producing an average of just over two goals per game. Only one of those seven fixtures has featured more than two goals, underlining the controlled nature of this matchup.
Recent results reinforce the trend. The last five league meetings finished 3-0, 0-1, 0-2, 2-0, and 0-1. Four of those five stayed under 2.5 goals and three featured a clean sheet. Forest have scored in only three of the last seven meetings, while Everton have kept things compact even when travelling.
At the City Ground, margins remain narrow. Forest’s last three home league games against Everton ended 0-1, 2-2, and 0-1. Everton’s approach in this fixture consistently prioritises defensive structure, limiting shots in central areas and slowing game tempo.
Players to watch: Look to Jesus
Igor Jesus has made 10 Premier League starts and has been fouled 19 times, an average of 1.9 fouls drawn per start. That puts him on the threshold before matchup context is applied.
Recent games show clear upside. Across his last five league appearances he has been fouled four, three, three, one, and one times. He has landed two or more fouls in three of those five, including against physically strong opponents and in games where Forest did not dominate possession.
His role drives the numbers. Igor Jesus plays as a fixed reference point, receiving direct balls under pressure, contesting first contacts, and holding play with his back to goal. He actively looks to draw fouls by engaging defenders early and shielding possession rather than releasing the ball quickly. Forest’s attack funnels early passes into him, increasing defender engagement and recovery fouls.
The matchup adds weight. He will be up against Everton’s centre-back pairing, who look to defend strong and physical, stepping in early to disrupt forwards. That approach typically leads to contact rather than clean interceptions.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Victor, Savona, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams, Anderson, Dominguez, Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Igor Jesus.
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, O'Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko, Garner, Iroegbunam, McNeil, Alcaraz, Dibling, Beto.
Anything else catch the eye?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton supports a case for under four goals and under five cards.
Goal volume trends are restrained. Everton away games average 1.89 total goals, with four of nine producing one goal or none. Over the last eight games Everton average just 1.03 xG and generate limited big chances, relying on low risk build-up and set pieces. Forest are more balanced but not expansive. Their last eight games produce an average total xG below three, with three clean sheets and several matches staying tight into the final stages.
Shots data reinforces the outlook. Forest generate shots in the box without converting them into high big chance counts, while Everton concede modest shot volumes but protect central areas well. Neither side profiles for sustained pressure or repeated high value chances, which caps the upside for a high scoring outcome. Forest’s recent home games regularly settle into controlled second halves once the first goal arrives, further limiting late goal bursts.
The card angle also aligns. The referee is Michael Oliver, who averages just 2.42 cards per match. Only 43% of his games see both sides carded, 57% finish with fewer than 2.5 cards, and only 14% exceed 4.5 cards. Everton away games average 3.0 cards, while Forest do not force high foul counts through aggressive pressing.
With low attacking intensity, cautious game states, and a referee profile that allows flow, this fixture supports a controlled contest with limited goals and minimal disciplinary action.
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