The City Ground stages Nottingham Forest against Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday. Forest return home after a landmark 3-0 win over Liverpool, a result that ended a long wait for a clean sheet.
It was their first in 20 matches across all competitions. The underlying numbers from that game show a different picture, with Liverpool producing 2.01 xG, and Forest again allowing sustained pressure in key moments.
Their league campaign sits at W3-D3-L6 with 12 points. Recent form shows two wins from the last five and an overall goal average of 2.75. They have produced over 2.5 goals in seven of twelve league matches and sit in the lower positions for defensive control across xGA, big chances against and shots conceded. Their home process has been mixed, with high-event matches common.
Brighton arrive with 19 points from 12 games and a strong away scoring profile. Their season goal average is 2.92, with over 2.5 goals in eight of 12. Their last five league matches show three wins, one draw and one defeat, producing nine goals in that run.
Away performance data remains high volume. They have delivered both teams to score in four of six away matches, with over 2.5 goals in three. The wider away record under Fabian Hurzeler points to the same trends. Across 25 away matches his side have averaged 3.44 goals with 22 scoring returns and only six clean sheets, three of which came against sides that were relegated last season and Wolves this season who are without a win.
Brighton continue to carry strong xG and chance creation numbers, with a consistent output in shots, shots inside the box and big chances.
Forest face a European fixture on Thursday, adding a schedule challenge ahead of this match. Brighton arrive with a strong attacking baseline and sustained away production.
How the bookies view it: Brighton favourites
Nottingham Forest are 9/5 at 34%. The draw is 49/20 at 25%. Brighton are 13/8 at 41%, giving the visitors a slight market edge.
The goal markets point toward a high-event match. Over 2.5 goals is 10/11 at 52% and BTTS is 8/11 at 58%. These prices align with Forest’s 2.75 goal average and Brighton’s 2.92, plus both teams’ recent BTTS and over 2.5 profiles.
Head to Head: Close records between these two sides
Nottingham Forest and Brighton share a balanced recent record. Across the last sixteen meetings Forest have four wins, four draws and five defeats, scoring twenty-one goals and conceding fifteen. The average goal difference sits at +0.46 with Forest averaging 1.62 goals and Brighton 1.15, showing a fixture without a clear long-term driver.
Recent league results highlight the swings. Forest delivered a 7-0 home win in February 2025, while the earlier meeting that season finished 2-2. Brighton recorded a 1-0 home win in March 2024 and a 3-2 success at the City Ground in November 2023. Forest won 3-1 in April 2023, with the reverse ending 0-0
Players to watch: Value in fouls
Carlos Baleba, Dan Ndoye and Elliot Anderson each show reliable foul output across their Premier League minutes. Baleba has started 12 games and committed 17 fouls, producing at least one foul in 11. His minutes in the defensive midfielder role place him in frequent recovery and screening actions, with higher counts against Chelsea, Fulham and Leeds.
Ndoye has started 11 games and made 12 fouls, recording at least one in seven of those starts and in each of his last six. His wide roles force repeated defensive duels.
Anderson has started all 12 and committed 15 fouls, with at least one in nine and in each of his last seven.
All three profiles support the 1+ foul treble.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Savona, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Dominguez; Igor Jesus.
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Wieffer, van Hecke, Boscagli, Kadioglu; Baleba, Ayari; Minteh, Rutter, Gomez; Welbeck.
Anything else catch the eye?
The goal line is driven by the attacking profiles of both sides and the defensive numbers they continue to post.
Forest league matches average 2.75 goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in seven of 12. Their games have been high event across the last four and last eight samples, with shots inside the box and xGA figures placing them in the lower defensive bracket. Even in their recent 3-0 win over Liverpool they allowed 2.01 xG, reflecting ongoing issues with controlling central and wide entries.
Their home matches have shown repeated open periods, and they have produced both teams to score or over 2.5 goals in three of their last four.
Brighton bring stronger volume. Their league matches average 2.92 goals with over 2.5 in eight of 12. Their away output shows both teams to score in four of six and over 2.5 goals in three.
They record solid xG returns across recent eight match windows, supported by stable shots, shots on target and big chance creation. Their away metrics under Fabian Hurzeler strengthen this trend. Across 25 away games his sides have averaged 3.44 goals with 22 scoring returns.
Clean sheets have been limited to six, and three came against lower-quality attacks. Their last eight league matches show consistent attacking production with xG around the mid-1.3 range and regular big chance generation.
Forest face the added load of a Thursday European fixture, likely increasing match tempo and defensive variability. Brighton’s away patterns, Forest’s concession profile and the combined goal averages across both teams point firmly to over 2.5 goals as a value-driven selection.
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