West Brom created five big chances and 2.83 non-penalty xG during their 4-1 win at Rotherham in the previous round, providing a clear warning for Newcastle's rebuilt defence. Only three days after a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, Matthias Jaissle must prepare another side for Wednesday's 7.45pm kick-off at St James' Park.
Jaissle's first match in charge produced plenty of encouragement despite the late equaliser. Newcastle twice led through Anthony Elanga's first goal for the club and a Joe Willock strike, only for Dominik Szoboszlai to convert a stoppage-time penalty after Lewis Hall fouled Victor Munoz.
Newcastle's energetic approach created chances against strong opposition, but their inability to protect two leads showed the defensive work still required. The short turnaround also leaves Jaissle with immediate decisions over rotation and the balance of his team.
The scale of Newcastle's summer rebuild explains why a settled starting side remains some distance away. Sandro Tonali joined Tottenham for £92.5m, Bruno Guimaraes moved to Arsenal for £75m and Anthony Gordon completed a £68m transfer to Barcelona, bringing in around £236m from three major departures.
Most of that money has been reinvested in younger players. Bazoumana Toure, Amar Dedic, Aladji Bamba, Lukas Hornicek and Sean Steur all arrived during the summer, with each aged under 24. The long-term potential is clear, but several are still adapting to a new club, league and manager.
West Brom travel with six Championship points after beating Norwich City 2-1 and Burnley 3-1. They fell behind against Burnley following a Callum Styles own goal, but Isaac Price scored twice either side of half-time before Harry Whitwell added the other.
Those results leave West Brom alongside Millwall and Charlton Athletic as the only Championship clubs to win their opening two league games. James Morrison has now lost only twice across 15 matches since taking permanent charge in February.
West Brom strengthened with Conor Townsend on a free transfer and Jimmy-Jay Morgan from Chelsea, although replacing Alex Mowatt remains the main issue before the window closes. Suspended forward Aune Heggebo is unavailable, while Morrison must also consider Saturday's trip to Middlesbrough when selecting his team.
Their performance at Rotherham showed the threat available within the wider squad. West Brom created enough attacking output to test a Newcastle defence still learning Jaissle's system.
How the bookies view it
Newcastle are 2/5 to win in 90 minutes, implying a 71.4% chance. The draw is priced at 4/1 and carries an implied probability of 20%, while West Brom are 13/2 at 13.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/7, implying a 63.6% chance. Both teams to score is priced at 4/5 and carries an implied probability of 55.6%.
Head to head: Little between these two sides
The clubs have not met competitively since a goalless draw at The Hawthorns in March 2021. Their record across the previous 10 meetings is closely matched, with Newcastle winning four, West Brom three and the other three ending level.
Newcastle won 3-2 at The Hawthorns in the FA Cup in 2020, while West Brom recorded a victory at St James' Park in 2018. The lack of recent meetings limits the relevance of the longer record.
Player to watch: Bazoumana Toure to get his first taste of competitive football
Bazoumana Toure joined Newcastle from Hoffenheim for £43m following a productive Bundesliga season. He recorded five goals and nine assists across 30 appearances, showing the end product required to justify Newcastle's investment.
Toure operated on the left, right, through the middle and as a forward, giving Jaissle several options within a rotated attacking unit. That versatility should be valuable while Newcastle work towards a settled formation.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United (4-2-3-1): Jaouen; Shahar, Thiaw, Schar, Hall; Bamba, Willock; Murphy, Woltemade, Toure; Wissa.
West Bromwich Albion (4-4-2): O'Leary; Galves, Mepham, Phillips, Townsend; Whitwell, Molumby, Diakite, Price; Myhre, Morgan.
Anything else catch the eye?
The main bet is both teams to score at 4/5, implying a 55.6% chance. Newcastle conceded twice during their opening match, while West Brom have scored freely across three competitive victories.
Jaissle's first game produced four goals and showed both the promise and vulnerability within Newcastle's current setup. Elanga and Willock found the net against Liverpool, but the hosts were unable to protect either lead and conceded the equaliser during stoppage time.
Rotation adds further uncertainty to their defensive prospects. Newcastle are expected to field several summer arrivals, with their younger players still learning the system and building an understanding with new teammates.
West Brom have scored seven goals across their opening three matches in league and cup. Their 4-1 victory at Rotherham, while five more goals followed across the wins against Norwich and Burnley.
Morrison's side have therefore shown they are capable of creating chances rather than relying only on efficient finishing. Price arrives in strong form, while Whitwell and Morgan add further attacking options despite Heggebo's suspension.
The main risk is Newcastle's superior individual quality. A rotated Premier League defence still carries enough ability to restrict Championship opposition, while West Brom also have a demanding league fixture three days later.
Newcastle should create chances against a West Brom side expected to make changes, but the 2/5 result price offers little interest during such an unsettled period.
Both teams to score better reflects the evidence available from their opening performances. Newcastle's attacking quality should provide one half of the bet, while West Brom's seven goals, strong cup data and the hosts' defensive transition support the other. The 4/5 price looks fair for a fixture where both managers have reasons to rotate and neither defence is expected to be at full strength
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