Saturday brings an important Premier League clash as Newcastle United host Brighton at St James Park, with both sides arriving in sharply different moods. Newcastle are trying to steady a poor run, while Brighton continue to build momentum after an impressive spell of results.
The hosts come into this match after five defeats in all competitions, extending a worrying longer trend. Across their last 20 games in all competitions, Newcastle are W6-D2-L12 and have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per game.
In Premier League action the picture is not much stronger, with only three wins from their last 13 matches. Recent performance data also shows clear issues. Across the last four league games they have produced only 1.64 xPTS and allowed 2.67 xGA per match, one of the weakest recent defensive records in the division.
St James Park has also become far less reliable. Newcastle have seen both teams score in 100% of their last four home matches, while over 2.5 goals has landed in all four. They remain capable going forward, averaging 1.22 xG across their last four home games, but defensive control has been missing badly.
Brighton arrive in much stronger shape. They are now W6-D1-L1 across their last eight matches, conceding only five goals in that run. Their only defeat in that sequence came against Arsenal. Over the last four games they have taken 12 actual points from an xPTS return of 7.73, while posting 1.46 xG and allowing only 0.79 xGA per game.
Away from home, Brighton continue to look organised and dangerous. Across their last four away games they are unbeaten, taking 12 points, keeping three clean sheets and conceding only 1.48 xGA combined with strong attacking output.
Momentum, confidence and defensive stability all sit with the visitors heading into Saturday's contest.
How the bookies view it: Hosts slight favourites
Newcastle are priced at 8/5 in the match winner market, which equates to a 38.46% implied probability of a home victory. Brighton are available at 17/10, representing a 37.04% implied probability of an away win. The draw is priced at 14/5, which implies a 26.32% probability.
The market points toward a tightly priced contest with little separating the sides, though Newcastle hold a marginal edge on home ground.
The goals market expects a strong chance of a higher scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/13, which converts to a 61.90% implied probability of at least three goals.
Both teams to score is priced at 8/11, representing a 57.89% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Seagulls hold the higher ground
Across the last 20 meetings, Brighton hold the stronger overall record with seven wins, nine draws and four defeats. They have scored 22 goals and conceded 17, giving an average of 1.10 goals scored per game compared with Newcastle's 0.85. Total goals across those matches average 1.95, which points toward many tight contests.
Recent history strongly favours Brighton. They are unbeaten in the last six meetings in all competitions, winning three and drawing three. Newcastle have not beaten Brighton since May 2023.
At St James Park, Brighton have become awkward opponents. In the last five visits they have won two and drawn three, remaining unbeaten in that spell. Those results include 1-0 wins in October 2024 and October 2018, plus draws of 1-1, 0-0 and 1-1.
The most recent meeting ended in a 2-1 Brighton home win in October 2025. Before that came a 1-1 draw in May 2025 and another 1-1 draw in the FA Cup.
Both teams to score has landed in nine of the last 20 meetings, 45.0%, while over 2.5 goals has landed in seven, 35.0%.
Players to watch: Hinshelwood under the radar for shots
Jack Hinshelwood 2+ shots is a strong bet against Newcastle based on recent output and role.
He has taken 19 shots across his last nine games, averaging 2.11 per match. He has also cleared this line in seven of those nine appearances, a 77.8% hit rate. The consistency is important. He has recorded at least one shot in all nine matches, giving a solid base, while regularly pushing beyond the two shot mark.
His role has shifted forward in recent weeks. Earlier in the season he was used deeper, but lately he has operated as an attacking midfielder, increasing touches in dangerous areas.
He also scored against Chelsea last time out from two shots on target. Newcastle's recent defensive form has been poor, making this line appealing.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United 4-3-3: Pope, Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Willock, Tonali, Guimaraes, Murphy, Osula, Ramsey.
Brighton and Hove Albion 4-2-3-1: Verbruggen, Wieffer, van Hecke, Boscagli, Kadioglu, Baleba, Gross, Minteh, Hinshelwood, Mitoma, Rutter.
Anything else catch the eye?
Brighton draw no bet stands out strongly for their trip to Newcastle because current form, defensive levels and recent chance creation all point towards the visitors avoiding defeat.
Newcastle are in a prolonged slump. Across their last 20 matches in all competitions they are W6-D2-L12, while conceding 2.1 goals per game. In the Premier League they have won only three of their last 13, which underlines how difficult results have become. Their recent numbers are also poor. Across the last four league games they have collected zero actual points with only 1.64 xPTS, while allowing 2.67 xGA per match.
The home profile is not much stronger. Newcastle's last four home games show zero clean sheets, 100% both teams to score, 100% over 2.5 goals and 11 big chances conceded. They have also allowed 7.0 shots inside the box per game in that spell. Even when creating chances themselves, defensive leaks continue to damage them.
Brighton are moving the other way. After a mixed spell over the turn of the year they are back to winning ways and lost just once in their last eight, with only five goals conceded in total. Over those eight matches they posted 13.18 xPTS and across the last four they turned 7.73 xPTS into a maximum 12 points.
The visitors are balanced on the road as well. In their last four away matches Brighton are unbeaten, winning three and drawing one. They have kept three clean sheets, conceded only 0.79 xGA per game across the last four overall, and allowed just one big chance across those four matches.
Brighton also average 8.8 shots inside the box across their last four games, compared with Newcastle's 7.0. With stronger form, tighter defending and Newcastle struggling badly, draw no bet gives protection against the stalemate while backing the better side right now.
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