Two clubs separated only by three points in the Premier League table meet at St James’ Park in the evening kickoff on Saturday as 11th-placed Newcastle United plays host to seventh-placed Brentford.
Newcastle’s defence of their League Cup crown came to an end on Wednesday night, as they were beaten 3-1 on the night and 5-1 on aggregate against Manchester City, on an evening I landed a 5/6 winner.
That result coincides with their recent league form, with Eddie Howe’s men picking up a solitary point from their last three Premier League outings (W0-D1-L2), suffering back-to-back defeats at home to Aston Villa and away to Liverpool.
That defeat at Anfield last Saturday leaves Newcastle in 11th position in the Premier League, seven points outside of the Champions League places and three points behind their visitors in seventh.
Keith Andrews saw his side bounce back from consecutive 0-2 defeats away at Chelsea and away at home to Nottingham Forest by winning 0-1 away at third-placed Aston Villa despite being reduced to 10 men just before halftime.
After losing seven of their opening eight away Premier League matches this season (W1-D0-L7), the Bees have gone on to win three of their next four following that impressive victory at Villa Park last weekend.
How the bookies view it: Newcastle favourites
Despite failing to win in any of their last three Premier League outings, Newcastle have been installed as favourites for this clash, with bet365 pricing a home success at 11/10.
Brentford are 5/2 to record a fourth away success from their last five road trips in the Premier League, whilst the draw is also 5/2.
Head to head: Home a big advantage for the Toon
Newcastle are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League fixtures at St James’ Park against Brentford, winning each of their last four.
However, Brentford will take confidence from the fact that they beat Newcastle 3-1 in the reverse fixture in West London in November.
Players to watch: Thiago to find the target again?
Igor Thiago has had an outstanding Premier League campaign so far this term, firing in 16 goals across his opening 24 appearances.
Two of those came in the reverse fixture in November, and the Brazilian forward is an appealing 7/5 at bet365 to find the target against Eddie Howe’s men once again.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Predicted line-ups:
Eddie Howe is expected to be without defenders Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles, Emil Krafth and Tino Livramento, whilst both midfielders Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton are doubts, as is Anthony Gordon.
Brentford will be missing the injured Josh DaSilva, Antoni Milambo and Fabio Carvalho, whilst Kevin Schade is suspended following his red card at Villa Park last weekend.
Newcastle United: Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Tonali, Willock, Ramsey, Barnes, Elanga, Wissa
Brentford: Kelleher, Kayode, Ajmer, van den Berg, Henry, Henderson, Janelt, Ouattara, Jensen, Yarmoliuk, Thiago
Anything else catch the eye?
Brentford come into this clash in better form than their hosts, but they boast a terrible record at St James’ Park, so I’m happy to swerve the match result.
The Bees’ previous nine away matches in the Premier League have averaged just 2.44 goals per game, with Under 2.5 Goals banking in seven (78%) of them, including in five of their last six.
What’s more, eight of Keith Andrews’s side’s last 11 Premier League outings across all venues have featured fewer than three goals, and whilst I’m not the biggest fan of betting on unders, the 6/5 on offer at Betfred for Under 2.5 Goals is my preferred selection for this clash.
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