Victory on Friday will secure Morocco a place in the knockout stage of the Africa Cup of Nations with a match to spare, as the host nation take on Mali at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium.
Both teams missed penalties in their opening fixtures, yet the outcomes differed. The Atlas Lions eventually pulled clear to claim a 2-0 success over Comoros, while the Eagles surrendered a late advantage and had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Zambia.
That opening win stretched Morocco’s strong sequence to 15 regulation-time victories from their last 18 outings, further underlining their standing as leading contenders for the AFCON title, which would be a first since lifting the trophy in 1976.
For Mali, overcoming the hosts, who sit top of the African rankings and 11th in the latest FIFA standings, would send a powerful message. Such a result would significantly boost the prospects of the side ranked 53rd in the world and place them firmly among the teams to watch.
Often labelled underachievers despite their regular presence at the tournament, the Eagles are still chasing a maiden continental crown. However, progress to the knockout phase in each of the last three editions offers encouragement as they aim to strengthen their position with a positive outcome on Friday.
How the bookies view it: Morocco huge favourites
With momentum, home support and the recent head-to-head all leaning in their direction, Morocco enter this clash as clear favourites. William Hill have priced the hosts at 11/20, while Mali are available at 5/1 and a draw is set at 13/5.
Recent head-to-head: Clear dominance from Morocco
Across the last seven meetings between these sides, Morocco have recorded four victories and suffered only one defeat, keeping clean sheets on five occasions during that period.
Players to watch: El Kaabi full of beans after worldie
Ayoub El Kaabi may be handed a starting role up front after emerging from the bench to seal the opener with an overhead kick, already among the early contenders for goal of the tournament.
Seven goals from his last eight appearances for club and country point to value in the Olympiacos striker for the anytime scorer market, priced at 13/10 with Ladbrokes.
Mali also carry a threat through Lassine Sinayoko, who has found the net in each of his last three outings for club and country, scoring four times across that run.
Probable lineups
Morocco could be without experienced defender Romain Saiss after his enforced withdrawal last time, while Achraf Hakimi remains a doubt.
On the other side, reports suggest Yves Bissouma is close to full fitness and could feature on Friday, with matchday three against Comoros the alternative target.
Morocco: Bono; Mazraoui, Aguerd, El Yamiq, Salah-Eddine; Ounahi, Amrabat, Saibari; Diaz, El Kaabi, El Aynaoui
Mali: Diarra; Coulibaly, Diaby, Fofana, Dante; Sangare, Dieng; Sinayoko, Doumbia, Nene; E B Toure
Anything else that catches the eye?
Mali arrive on a four-match unbeaten sequence and have not lost by more than one goal since 2022, making a +2 handicap appealing at 1/2 with Betano.
Both teams were level at the interval in their respective opening matches, and a similar scenario could unfold here given the likelihood of a cautious opening.
None of Morocco’s last four AFCON fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals, while three of the previous four encounters with Mali finished below four goals. A combination of home win or draw alongside under 3.5 goals therefore stands out.
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