The Den stages an early meeting between two Championship play-off hopefuls on Wednesday, with Millwall facing Wrexham at 19:45. Both sides need a response after weekend defeats, although their opening results and underlying numbers point towards different levels of performance.
Millwall began with a 2-0 victory at Bristol City before beating Norwich 3-0 in their first home match. Their perfect start ended with a 5-1 defeat at Southampton, where Mark Sykes put them ahead before the hosts took control.
Alex Neil felt his side dominated the opening 25 minutes at St Mary’s and should have added to their lead. Kyrell Lisbie hit the post shortly before half-time, but Millwall struggled after conceding the equaliser and were outplayed during the second half.
The wider numbers remain strong. Millwall rank fourth in the Championship for xPTS with 5.84, having generated 7.87 xG while allowing 4.62 xGA. Their ratio of 0.63 places them behind only Wolves, Middlesbrough and Southampton.
Wrexham are still searching for their first win after collecting two points from three games. They conceded a 98th-minute equaliser at Cardiff, drew 1-1 with Watford and then lost 2-1 at home to Birmingham.
Phil Parkinson’s side have produced enough chances for better results. Their 5.47 xG compares with 3.49 xGA, giving them a positive differential of 1.98. They have lacked a clinical edge, scoring three goals despite averaging 1.82 xG per match.
The Birmingham defeat exposed further problems. Wrexham were fortunate to trail by only one goal at half-time before Callum Doyle equalised, but Phil Neumann restored the visitors’ lead nine minutes later. Parkinson admitted his players lacked conviction in the final third during the opening period.
Millwall are expected to retain the 4-3-3 system used at Southampton. Tairyk Arconte and Lisbie should support Josh Coburn, with Camiel Neghli, Casper de Norre and Jenson Metcalfe forming the midfield.
Wrexham are likely to continue with three centre-backs. Kieffer Moore will lead the attack, supported by Nathan Broadhead and Oliver Rathbone.
How the bookies view it
Millwall are 13/10, implying a 43.5% chance of winning. The draw is 5/2, which represents 28.6%, while Wrexham are 12/5, carrying an implied probability of 29.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 19/20, implying 51.3%, with under 2.5 available at 10/11, or 52.4%. Both teams to score is 3/4 for yes, representing 57.1%, while no is 11/10, implying 47.6%.
Head to head: Honours even over last 11 meetings
The sides recorded one 2-0 away victory each last season. Wrexham won at The Den in August before Millwall reversed the scoreline at the Racecourse Ground in February.
Across 11 meetings since 1997, both clubs have won three times, with five draws. Nine of those fixtures finished under 2.5 goals, while both teams scored on only three occasions.
Player to watch: Tairyk Arconte looking an astute signing
Tairyk Arconte joined Millwall from French side Rodez during the summer and has made an immediate impact in Neil’s attack.
The winger scored twice in the 3-0 victory over Norwich. He reacted first after Coburn’s effort was saved to open the scoring, before converting Jake Cooper’s knockdown from a quickly taken free-kick.
His direct running and movement from the right give Millwall a route behind opposing defenders. Wrexham conceded both goals against Birmingham from deliveries into the penalty area, which leaves an area for Arconte to target.
Predicted lineups
Millwall (4-3-3): Crocombe, Sykes, Taylor, Cooper, Sturge, Neghli, de Norre, Metcalfe, Arconte, Coburn, Lisbie.
Wrexham (3-4-2-1): Patterson, Vyner, Hyam, Doyle, Imray, Whiteman, O'Brien, Ekomie, Rathbone, Broadhead, Moore.
Anything else catch the eye
Millwall’s first home performance produced the strongest statistical display relevant to this fixture. They generated 2.93 xG, recorded seven shots on target and created five big chances while limiting Norwich to two efforts on target.
The Lions also produced 15 shots inside the box, compared with four for their opponents. Jose Cordoba’s red card affected the final period, but Millwall were already two goals ahead and had controlled the contest before his dismissal.
Wrexham’s only away match ended in a draw despite a positive performance at Cardiff. Moore scored inside three minutes, while the visitors twice hit the woodwork and forced Nathan Trott into saves. Their failure to finish the game allowed Rubin Colwill to equalise with the final attack.
Similar problems followed against Watford. Wrexham controlled the second half but repeatedly found the first defender with their crosses. Parkinson felt the quality of their passing and delivery needed to improve, even though his side had enough opportunities to win.
Millwall’s heavy defeat at Southampton creates some concern, but it came after two convincing victories and does not erase their stronger process across the opening three matches. They have recorded 44 attempts inside the box, the highest total in the Championship, and lead this matchup across xPTS, xG ratio and defensive output.
Wrexham have competed well without turning their performances into victories. Millwall have shown greater efficiency in both penalty areas and return to a ground where they dominated Norwich.
Millwall to win is the bet at 13/10.
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