Liverpool host Real Madrid at Anfield on Matchday four of the Champions League in what is always one of Europe’s most compelling fixtures.
Arne Slot’s side sit in strong domestic form and continue to thrive at home in Europe. The Reds have won 14 of their last 20 home European matches, scoring 45 and conceding 20, with an average margin of +1.25. They have also won their last 15 group or league-stage fixtures at Anfield, scoring at least twice in 12 of those.
Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Madrid at Anfield last season ended an eight-match winless run against the Spanish giants (D1 L7). Mohamed Salah, who is two goals away from reaching 50 in the Champions League, will again be central to Liverpool’s attacking threat. The Reds have produced 7.6 xG from their three games in this season’s group phase, underlining their consistent chance creation.
Real Madrid travel with an impressive record of their own. They have won six of their last nine away group or league-stage matches (W6-D0-L3), scoring 19 and conceding 13. Those games have averaged 3.56 total goals, with both teams scoring in seven of the nine. Madrid’s process remains front-loaded with 9.8 xG for from their first three group games compared to 7.6 for Liverpool.
Jude Bellingham is poised to make his 50th Champions League appearance at just 22 years and 128 days, while former Liverpool full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold returns to Anfield in white. Real have won only two of their last nine matches against English clubs (D3 L4).
Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs takes charge, averaging 4.35 cards per game and booking both teams in 17 of his last 20 Champions League matches. Everything points towards another fast, high-quality and emotionally charged meeting at Anfield.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Liverpool are 33/20 to win, an implied probability of 37.7%, with the draw priced at 29/10 (25.6%) and Madrid 6/4 (40%). The prices reflect how evenly matched these sides are, with little between them in either form or quality.
The goals markets tell a clear story. Over 2.5 goals is 5/11, implying a 68.8% chance, which looks justified given Liverpool’s attacking output and Madrid’s high-scoring away record. Liverpool have scored 45 goals in their last 20 home European matches, averaging 2.25 per game, while Madrid’s last nine away group or league-stage fixtures have produced 32 goals in total.
Both Teams To Score is 2/5, an implied probability of 71.4%, and fits the data perfectly. Liverpool have scored in 18 of their last 20 European home games and Madrid have found the net in eight of their last nine away.
The numbers all point to goals with two sides built to attack, both capable of moments that change the game.
Head to Head: Los Blancos hold strong record
Liverpool’s recent record against Real Madrid is a difficult one. Across the last nine meetings between the sides, Liverpool have won just once, drawing once and losing seven. The aggregate score over that period is 17-6 in Madrid’s favour, with the Spanish side scoring in eight of those nine games.
Liverpool’s 2-0 victory at Anfield last November finally ended an eight-match winless run in the fixture, but Madrid’s dominance has been clear. They have averaged nearly two goals per game in this period, while Liverpool’s return of just six highlights how often they have struggled to convert chances in these encounters.
Four of the last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five of the last six, suggesting that while Madrid have generally held the upper hand, this fixture usually delivers attacking football and goals at both ends. It is also been competitive in nature with six of the last nine meetings have seen both sides receive a card, a reflection of the intensity and edge that often defines this rivalry.
Players to watch: Gruler consistent woth his shots
Arda Guler looks a strong candidate for at least two shots against Liverpool. The Real Madrid playmaker has attempted seven shots across his three Champions League appearances this season, averaging over two per 90 minutes, and has registered at least two efforts in each of his last two outings in the competition.
His domestic numbers reinforce that consistency, with 19 shots in 697 La Liga minutes, averaging 2.45 per 90. Guler has started nine of Madrid’s 11 league matches and all three in Europe, underlining his importance to Xabi Alonso’s side. Operating between the lines behind Vinicius and Mbappe, he regularly finds pockets of space on the edge of the box and is encouraged to shoot when given sight of goal.
With Madrid averaging 9.8 xG from their first three Champions League group games and producing 22 big chances in the competition, Guler should again be heavily involved in their attacking play. His form and shot profile make 2+ attempts a solid angle.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili, Bradley, Konaté, van Dijk, Robertson, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Guler, Mastantuono, Vinicius, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
The data strongly supports a high-tempo, attacking contest at Anfield. Across Liverpool’s last 20 European home games, there have been 65 goals in total an average of 3.25 per match. They have scored in 18 of those 20, hitting two or more in 15, and kept just 10 clean sheets.
Real Madrid’s last nine away games in the group or league phase have averaged 3.56 total goals, with Los Blancos scoring 19 and conceding 13. Both teams have found the net in seven of those nine, while six produced over 2.5 goals.
In this season's Champions League only four sides in the top half have conceded more goals than Liverpool, whilst only five sides have scored more goals than both of these sides.
The underlying process is equally strong. Liverpool’s 7.6 xG from their first three group matches reflects a side creating a steady volume of chances, while Madrid’s 9.8 xG over the same period ranks among the highest in the competition. Both average over 15 shots per game and are among the top sides for shots on target.
Discipline data adds further confidence to a goals-and-cards angle. Referee Istvan Kovacs averages 4.35 cards per Champions League game, with both teams shown a card in 17 of his last 20. Liverpool have been carded in two of three group games this season, with Madrid also picking up bookings in two of three.
Liverpool’s front line led by Mo Salah, and Madrid’s attack through Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe, both thrive in open games. With both teams likely to press high and counter quickly, there is enough evidence to support goals and fouls at both ends. Combining Over 2.5 Goals, both teams to score, and both teams to be carded reflects the data perfectly as it will be a match where quality, tempo, and emotion collide at Anfield.
GambleAware