Leicester City host Northampton Town at the King Power Stadium on Saturday, with kick-off at 3pm, in a Carabao Cup first-round tie that marks Russell Martin's first competitive game in charge and opens the season for both clubs.
Leicester begin life in League One after suffering consecutive relegations. They finished 23rd in the Championship last season with 46 points after receiving a six-point deduction for breaching EFL profit and sustainability rules, with relegation confirmed following a 2-2 draw against Hull City on 21 April. It means the 2016 Premier League champions will play in the third tier for only the second time in their history.
The underlying numbers supported their final position. Leicester posted 46.8 xG and 64.6 xGA, producing a model goal difference of -17.8, one of the worst in the Championship and close to their actual goal difference of -10 once finishing variation is considered. Marti Cifuentes was dismissed in January before Gary Rowett failed to stop the slide as interim manager.
Russell Martin was appointed in June on a three-year contract and has been tasked with rebuilding the squad. Abdul Fatawu has left, while Ben Nelson captained the side in Leicester's final preseason friendly despite previously being linked with a move away. Liam Cullen, Conor Chaplin, Alex McCarthy and Christian McFarlane have arrived permanently, with Tommy Watson joining on loan from Brighton.
Northampton also begin the season following relegation. They finished bottom of League One after 11 consecutive defeats ended Kevin Nolan's spell in March. Their underlying numbers were one of the weakest in the division, with 49.9 xG and 78.1 xGA producing a model goal difference close to -28. That closely matched their actual figure of -33 and confirmed the scale of their problems at both ends of the pitch.
Tom Eaves finished as Northampton's leading league scorer with eight goals, while their run to the EFL Trophy semi-finals provided one of the few positives from the campaign. Chris Hogg was appointed in May and begins his first senior managerial role as the Cobblers return to League Two.
Leicester's preseason included a training camp in Spain and a 3-0 home win over Northampton on 11 July, giving both managers an early look at the opposition they now face competitively. The Foxes ended their preparations with a 1-0 defeat against Genoa at the King Power Stadium, Lorenzo Colombo scoring the only goal in the 69th minute.
Half of Leicester's squad also played Coventry City behind closed doors at Seagrave on the same day. Liam Cullen started against Genoa and was denied twice after good work from Stephy Mavididi, while Ben Nelson was forced off before half-time and is now a doubt for this tie.
Northampton completed their preparations with a 4-2 win at Solihull Moors. Matty Warhurst cancelled out Cameron Green's opener before Connor Evans scored on his first start for the club. Elliott List added a penalty and Sam Hoskins converted a rebound after another Kamarai Swyer effort struck the post.
Swyer was Northampton's standout player, creating the first two goals and remaining heavily involved throughout. Hogg described the game as a useful test despite a slow start and some poor defending from set pieces, while confirming he still expects one or two further additions before the transfer window closes.
How the bookies view it
Leicester are 2/7, implying a 77.8% chance of winning inside 90 minutes. The draw is 5/1, implying 16.7%, while Northampton are 10/1, implying 9.1%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/21, an implied probability of 67.7%. Both teams to score is available at 10/11, implying 52.4%.
Head to head: Foxes unbeaten
Leicester are unbeaten in the four previous competitive meetings between the clubs.
The most recent came during the 2008/09 League One season, with a goalless draw at Leicester followed by a 2-1 Foxes victory at Sixfields. The clubs also drew twice in the First Division during the 1965/66 campaign.
Leicester's 3-0 friendly win last month means they have now avoided defeat in all five meetings, although this is the first time they have faced Northampton in the Carabao Cup.
Player to watch: Liam Cullen big threat for Foxes
Liam Cullen joined Leicester from Swansea City after making 40 appearances last season, including 17 starts, and scoring five goals.
The Wales international was handed his first start against Genoa and twice went close after combining with Stephy Mavididi. Leicester's forward options have been reduced by several summer departures, placing greater responsibility on Cullen to contribute immediately.
An early competitive goal would give him confidence and offer Russell Martin some reassurance as he rebuilds Leicester's attack.
Predicted line-ups
Leicester City: Stolarczyk; Joseph, Okoli, Nelson, Thomas; Coulibaly, Braybrooke, Skipp; Cullen, Mavididi, De Cordova-Reid.
Northampton Town: Jeacock; Donacien, Maxwell, Moore, Guthrie; Fornah, Perkins, Briggs, Swyer, Evans; Warhurst.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both clubs arrive after damaging relegation campaigns and begin the season under new managers, but the gap in squad quality remains considerable.
Leicester's Championship season was poor, particularly defensively, but Russell Martin still has access to players with experience at a much higher level. Northampton's underlying numbers were the worst in League One, with their 78.1 xGA highlighting a defence that repeatedly allowed high-quality chances.
The 3-0 preseason meeting between the sides should not be treated as decisive, but it showed the difference in depth available to the two managers. Leicester also have home advantage and should approach this as an opportunity to begin the new era with a positive result.
Northampton do have an attacking outlet in Kamarai Swyer, whose creativity stood out against Solihull Moors, but they are unlikely to enjoy enough possession to consistently trouble Leicester.
The straight home win at 2/7 offers little appeal, so adding a modest goals line makes more sense. My bet is Leicester to win and over 2.5 goals is the stand out bet.
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