Cairnzy offered to cover Saturday’s Lucky 15 bet.
I had two winners from four selections last weekend, one of which was a reasonable price in the end, having drifted out significantly in the market.
I was disappointed in the end not to walk away with a little more, given that the shorter-priced horses let me down, but that’s how the cookie crumbles in this game.
Kalpana 11/10 – Newbury 13.25
My first selection for Saturday's Lucky 15 bet comes in the shape of the Andrew Balding trained Kalpana, who will be ridden by jockey Colin Keane.
Kalpana unfortunately, isn’t the most exciting of prices being odds on at 10/11, but if fully wound up on seasonal reappearance, she should be a tough nut to crack.
I was a huge fan of this horse last term and tipped her up when I was full-time on the thread at an each-way price of 20/1 or so when she was pipped on the line. She’s gone on to be consistent at the highest level and brings some solid form to this contest. She chased home Calandagan in last year's King George before going on to land the Group 1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot last time out.
The Lion In Winter 13/2 – Newbury 2.35
I’ve decided to take on the market principles with Aiden O’Brien’s The Lion In Winter, who at 5/1 looks the value play in the cracking renewal of the Lockinge Stakes.
Damysus could hardly have been more impressive, while Zeus Olympios should come on for the recent run. Notable Speech also runs a good race, but the yards form at present is questionable, and on top of that, his better form tends to come outside the UK.
I thought 5/1 for The Lion In Winter was a fair price. She was a bit frustrating to follow last term, but did place four times at Group 1 level and I do believe she’s capable of landing a big prize at some point. Whether this is the race is another question, but her most recent outing, so be it at Listed level, was a step in the right direction, and it should set her up nicely to be competitive in this race. I’ll be interested to see how Ryan rides her, as I can see this being quite tactical come the business end. A lot of these, as expected, have a nice turn of foot, and I would expect he’ll want to be handy enough come the final few furlongs.
Albert Einstein 2/1 – Newbury 15.10
I’ve opted to give Albert Einstein one more chance in this race.
I’ve backed the horse personally on his last two outings, one of which was tipped up by me on another Lucky 15 thread last month. My selection is well thought of within camp, but I’m still unsure if he falls into that O’Brien hype train category yet.
He was disappointing on seasonal return at The Curragh when finishing midpack over 7f on heavy ground. I thought the combination of being rusty and testing conditions was enough to draw a line through the run. He then ran third last time out at Newbury of 7f on good ground.
I thought the Newbury run was much more like it, but I did think the petrol light came on a bit sooner than I would have liked. A drop back to 6f looks the right move here. He’s worth another chance to get back to winning ways.
Twisting Physics 15/8 – Newmarket 1.42
Jockey Jamie Spencer seems to pick his rides these days from what I’ve heard, and he managed to bag two winners on Friday.
Spencer isn’t everyone’s cup of tea; he’s not exactly mine either, but I’ll not deny he has talent. He’s aboard my selection, Twisting Physics this time around, and I’m hoping for another nice ride.
I may be wrong, but I think Rizz himself tipped this horse up at some stage. I’m unsure of the result that day, but I’m sure he has made an appearance on the thread at some stage.
My selection remains a very low mileage horse, and I thought his reappearance last month at Newbury was a good effort given the circumstances. Spencer, who rode him last time out, found himself a bit further back than he would have liked ( maybe not as we know he likes to pounce late ), but my selection stayed on well that day and if given a better ride, would have finished a lot closer. Twisting Physics tends to travel quite strongly into his races and has a nice turn of foot when asked for an effort. This contest represents a slight drop in trip, so I’m hoping Spencer will have learnt from his mistake last time out and has my selection a bit closer to the pace before making his effort.
GambleAware