Two of the three selections at York on Friday were far too keen to give themselves the best chance.
Call Margot and Regal Ulixes were the pair who refused to settle through their races, and when that happens, you massively reduce your chance of winning/placing.
Ormolulu was settled in last place, which was to be expected, but he didn't manage to bridge the gap to those ahead of him.
Berkshire Whisper 15/2 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Newbury 4.20
I've decided to take a chance on Berkshire Whisper for this Class 2 handicap.
He was highly tried on a couple of occasions last year during his three-year-old campaign, and I believe he is still unexposed as a handicapper. His runs this season have been good, and he has shown that he is more than capable of getting involved in a race of this nature.
He was fourth in a Listed event at this track last year. The level of horses in that race was very strong, and the form of that race has been franked by multiple horses.
Oisin Murphy is the man for Saturday racing, and he is very good at getting the horses into a good rhythm and in the correct place at the right time. He was unlucky when he was on him at Newcastle, where he was repeatedly blocked in running, but still managed to get third. Last time out, Jason Watson was on board, and he still ran a solid race against another solid field.
Bullet Point 5/1 (1pt) – Newbury 5.00
I was mightily disappointed with Bullet Point's run at Newmarket when I tipped him up a couple of weeks ago. But, with William Haggas willing to race him just a fortnight after, it suggests that he needed that run and that he is a lot more prepped this time around.
Based on how consistent Bullet Point was in the big handicaps, and the losses were to some well-handicapped horses, he has to be one of the horses to beat if he's back on song. I still believe that he is a bottom-tier Class 1 horse, so the heavy weight shouldn't be a problem, as he has proven he is capable of handling big weights in the past.
There are solid handicappers in this, but I still think Bullet Point is capable of progressing further. This track suits horses who race prominently, and that is something Bullet Point does, so I expect Tom to go forward.
Twisting Physics 15/8 (2pt) – Newmarket 1.42
Jamie Spencer isn't a jockey that I'm a huge fan of, but he has been riding well at the start of this new season, so I wanted to chance Twisting Physics.
Oliver Cole's lightly raced gelding of Dubawi made an eye-catching return to the track at Newbury in the middle of April. He was not fancied in the market and was held up in normal Spencer style.
He was keen and switched towards the end, and made good headway inside the final half furlong. It was an encouraging effort from a 310-day absence, and if he has built on that, he has to be dangerous off an untouched handicap mark.
Golden Redemption 9/2 (1pt) – Newmarket 2.50
I can understand why Forty Years On is fancied to go well for this race, as he was behind Maybe Not, who won at York this week. But, if you look into the form of this horse, apart from a George Boughey horse, the rest of the horses he has been ahead or beat haven't franked the form at all. Not only that, he played up before the start of his last race, and he hasn't been on the track in 237 days, so there's enough to go against him.
Golden Redemption seemed a much safer pick, and a fairly big no-brainer. He is running out of a yard in tremendous form, and he has course form on a couple of occasions. He ran in a better grade race at Newmarket last time out, and was only touched off by a horse who was well-handicapped.
I thought he could easily run a big race here for David Probert, so he gets my money.
GambleAware