Leeds United face Crystal Palace at Elland Road on Sunday with kick-off at 14:00. Daniel Farke’s side enter the weekend unbeaten, while Palace have lost three of their opening four Premier League matches.
Leeds started with a 1-0 victory at Nottingham Forest. Anton Stach scored the winner from a late free kick, securing their first league success at the City Ground since the 1971-72 season.
Late goals also shaped their next two results. Dominic Calvert-Lewin rescued a 1-1 draw against Brentford before Leeds earned another point at Brighton. They created five big chances at the Amex but needed an equaliser after falling behind.
Their underlying numbers show a balanced start. Leeds have generated 5.86 xG while allowing 5.79 xGA. Eight points from four fixtures is higher than their 5.59 xPTS, although their performances have remained competitive throughout.
Crystal Palace opened with a 2-0 defeat at Everton despite producing 1.71 xG. Manchester City then won 4-1 at Selhurst Park after controlling possession and creating repeated openings.
Palace responded with a 3-2 victory at Fulham. They recovered from two losing positions and scored a late winner, but the hosts registered 25 attempts and produced 3.88 xG.
Their defensive problems continued against Ipswich. Anan Khalaili opened the scoring before Emersonn equalised and Leif Davis placed the visitors ahead. Jorgen Strand Larsen made it 2-2, only for Zian Flemming to score in the 90th minute.
Palace have recorded 4.25 xG and allowed 8.85 xGA. They have also faced 71 shots while producing 41, leaving them with the second-worst shot difference in the division.
Leeds should retain their 3-5-2 system, with Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor leading the attack. Palace are expected to start Strand Larsen as the central striker, supported by Daichi Kamada and Yeremi Pino.
How the bookies view it
Leeds are 5/6, giving them an implied winning probability of 54.5%. The draw is 11/4, representing 26.7%, while Crystal Palace are 7/2, carrying an implied probability of 22.2%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, which equates to 55.6%. Under 2.5 goals is available at 11/10, producing an implied probability of 47.6%.
Both teams to score is 7/10 for yes and 6/5 for no. Those prices represent respective probabilities of 58.8% and 45.5%.
Head to head: Honours even
The supplied record is evenly balanced. Both sides have won three of the last eight meetings, with the other two ending level.
Leeds have recorded three victories across the previous four encounters at Elland Road. They won 4-1 at home last season before a goalless draw at Selhurst Park in March.
Five of the eight games finished with fewer than three goals. The other three produced 4-1, 5-1 and 4-1 scorelines.
Player to watch: Dominic Calvert-Lewin integral to Leeds success
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored twice since joining Leeds, finding the net against Brentford and Newcastle.
The supplied player data covers his first three appearances. He recorded 1.61 xG from six attempts, with three efforts hitting the target. His average of 0.54 xG per game was the highest among the expected Leeds starters.
Calvert-Lewin has also drawn seven fouls. His ability to receive direct passes, compete with central defenders and attack crosses gives Leeds a clear focal point.
Palace’s enforced defensive changes should suit the striker. His movement across the back three should test the communication between Chris Richards, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Honest Ahanor.
Predicted lineups
Leeds United (3-5-2): Trafford, Justin, Elvedi, Muharemovic, Bogle, Stach, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson, Calvert-Lewin, Okafor.
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Benitez, Richards, Tomiyasu, Ahanor, Khalaili, Wharton, Timber, Mitchell, Kamada, Pino, Strand Larsen.
Anything else catch the eye
Leeds delivered their strongest performance of the season against Newcastle. Three goals arrived during a 14-minute first-half spell before Okafor added the fourth after the interval.
The hosts produced 1.96 xG from 15 attempts and restricted Newcastle to seven shots worth 0.77 xG. Farke praised the team’s structure, energy and pressing, while opposing manager Matthias Jaissle accepted his players had failed to match Leeds physically.
Those qualities are relevant against a weakened Palace squad. Dean Henderson remains sidelined, removing the visitors’ first-choice goalkeeper. Disasi is suspended following his dismissal against Ipswich, with Tomiyasu expected to enter the defence.
Palace also travel without Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr. Edward Nketiah remains doubtful, reducing their attacking options from the bench.
The visitors have allowed 33 shots from inside the penalty area across two away fixtures. Opponents have also created ten big chances during those matches, placing sustained pressure on a back line missing two regular starters.
Leeds have scored in every league game and produced four different goalscorers. Their two-striker formation should occupy the Palace centre-backs, while Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson provide width against the visiting wing-backs.
Palace remain dangerous on transitions, but their defensive record and reduced squad leave them vulnerable at Elland Road. Leeds hold the stronger combination of form, home advantage and available personnel.
Leeds Utd vs Crystal Palace Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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