Italy will look to take another step in qualifying for the World Cup finals for the first time since 2014 as they welcome Northern Ireland to Bergamo on Thursday in their semi-final playoff tie.
After declining to participate in the maiden World Cup in Uruguay in 1930, Italy qualified for 18 of the next 19 editions, with their only failure coming in Sweden in 1958.
However, the Azzurri have failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, and their hopes of ending that sequence took a hit as they lost home and away to Norway in their World Cup qualifying group, finishing six points behind the Norwegians.
Nevertheless, wins home and away against Estonia, Israel and Moldova secured second spot and has given Gennaro Gattuso’s men a second chance in the playoffs.
Whilst the Italians have missed the previous two World Cups, the Northern Irish have had to wait far longer, with their last appearances coming in Mexico 86.
Despite being competitive in their World Cup qualifying group (W3-D0-L3), Michael O’Neill’s men could only finish in third behind Germany and Slovakia.
However, the Green and White Army have been given a second chance in the playoffs courtesy of being one of the best four Nations League group winners outside the top two of their World Cup qualifying group.
How the bookies view it: Italy clear favourites
As expected, Italy have been installed as favourites to reach the playoff finals, with bet365 pricing Italy at just 1/9 To Qualify, whilst the win inside 90 minutes is 2/7.
Northern Ireland are 11/2 underdogs to advance, whilst the win inside regulation time is 10/1.
Head to head: Azzurri dominance
It will come as no surprise that this is a fixture the Italians tend to dominate, as they are unbeaten in the previous six meetings with the Green and White Army (W6-D2-L0).
Northern Ireland’s solitary victory over the Azzurri came all the way back in a World Cup qualifier in 1958, helping them qualify for their maiden World Cup at the Italians' expense.
Players to watch: Dimarco to deliver again?
Federico Dimarco has enjoyed an excellent campaign so far, as he has scored six goals and provided an incredible 15 assists across his opening 28 appearances in Serie A for leaders Inter this season.
Dimarco has also provided an assist in each of the Azzurri’s previous four World Cup qualifiers, and he is an appealing 7/5 at William Hill to Score or Assist on Thursday evening.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Predicted line-ups:
Italy are without the injured Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Chiesa, whilst Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Gianluca Mancini, Sandro Tonali and Gianluca Scamacca are doubts.
Michael O’Neill will be unable to call upon Premier League duo Conor Bradley and Dan Ballard due to injury.
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Mancini, Bastoni, Locatelli, Politano, Frattesi, Barella, Dimarco, Retegui, Esposito
Northern Ireland: Charles, McConville, McNair, Brown, Hume, Saville, Charles, Devenny, McCann, Price, Reid
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy have been scoring goals for fun in World Cup qualifying, with the Azzurri firing in 21 goals across their previous seven qualifiers.
Gennaro Gattuso’s hosts have fired in 2+ goals in all six of their qualifiers when excluding meetings with group winners Norway – even scoring 3+ in four (67%) of them – so combining an Italy Win & Over 2.5 Goals appeals to me here, which pays 1/1 at bet365.
What’s more, Michael O’Neill’s visitors lost 3-1 to Germany in their qualifying campaign, as well as losing 2-1 and 5-1 in away friendlies last year against Scandinavian duo Denmark and Sweden.
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