This Friday sees a titanic clash, the sort we have seen in the past in European Championship and World Cup finals. Zinedine Zidane’s new-look France will take on Roberto Mancini’s Italy at a time when both managers are trying to impose their own styles.
France have won both their matches so far 1–0, and these modest scorelines are certainly quite different from what we have come to expect from Les Bleus in recent years.
The team does not look at its best in attack; against Belgium, they won because of Michael Olise’s brilliant solo raid in the closing minutes. The cutting edge that Kylian Mbappe brings is certainly missed when he is absent, but Les Bleus will have to cope against Italy without him once again.
Italy looked completely transformed against Turkey and started the match with ferocious pressure, scoring three goals before half-time. Turkey were completely neutralised for the first 45 minutes, which effectively decided the match.
In the second half, the Azzurri dropped back tactically and handed the initiative to the hosts, who managed to pull one back.
I am still a long way from saying that things in Italy are back on track, because there are problems at every level. But if they can maintain this positive attitude following their biggest win since 2026, we can expect more good results.
How the bookies view it: Back the French for a third win in a row
There was never any doubt that France would be the clear favourites against any opponent in their group, and this match is no exception, with Les Bleus priced at 1/2. A win for Italy is priced at a high 21/4, whilst a draw stands at around 17/4.
Recent head-to-head: Four wins in five for Les Bleus
France and Italy have played dozens of great matches against each other over the years, including in the previous edition of the UEFA Nations League. Two years ago, the two sides exchanged 3-1 victories, with the interesting fact being that both teams lost their home fixtures.
Each of the last five matches has seen at least one goal scored at both ends, but more importantly, France have won four of the last five encounters.
Players to watch: Welcome to the Michael Olise show
Michael Olise is one of those players we describe as a once-in-a-generation talent. The French international continues to be the match-winner for both France and Bayern Munich.
Without him, Les Bleus would not have won against either Turkey or Belgium. Since the start of the season, he has scored nine goals and provided four assists in nine matches played. With Kylian Mbappe out injured, we have no better option but to rely on Olise in every match.
Probable line-ups
France: Maignan, Truffert, Lacroix, Upamecano, Kalulu, Cherki, Rabiot, Kone, Olise, Doue, Dembele
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Bastoni, Mancini, Kayode, Tonali, Fagioli, Barella, P. Esposito, S. Esposito, Cambiaghi
Anything else catch the eye?
Sooner or later, France’s matches will once again be spectacular and full of goals. The question is when, because we were expecting it against Belgium as well.
Les Bleus’ defence looks far better than it did two months ago, but historically this rivalry never disappointed. And it’s easier to expect goals than to hope for a low-scoring result in such a clash between giants.
Despite the absences, I don’t think France will allow themselves to lose in the heart of Paris. Nor do I think Italy have done enough to convince us that they can rise to such a challenge.
Given the hosts’ form so far and the visitors’ need for positive results, I reckon we’ll see a closely fought match, but a third win in a row for France.
France vs Italy Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
- Ukraine vs Northern Ireland Prediction and Betting Tips – 2026-10-02
- Greece vs Netherlands Prediction and Betting Tips – 2026-10-01
- Germany vs Serbia Prediction and Betting Tips – 2026-10-01
- Denmark vs Portugal Prediction and Betting Tips – 2026-10-01
- Wales vs Norway Prediction and Betting Tips – 2026-10-01
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