The Champions League returns, and both Napoli and FC Copenhagen are running out of time. One of the two teams could make a huge step forward towards qualifying, or they could make their task much harder if the match ends in a tie.
Following the early 6-2 defeat to PSV and the recent 2-0 away at Benfica, Napoli have a humiliating 6:11 goal difference ahead of this round, and are barely inside the Top 24. Losing to Copenhagen could send them below the line and eventually result in an even more humiliating elimination.
With three draws in their last five fixtures, the Partenopei can’t boast a pristine form, although they are unbeaten in their last eight games. And, they recently won another trophy after overcoming Bologna in the Supercoppa Italiana.
FC Copenhagen are in a similar position, sitting right next to Napoli in the League Phase table. The Lions may be a little rusty, having not played an official match in over a month. They played a couple of friendlies in January, but their last domestic match was in mid-December.
Curiously, the Danish champions have the second-worst defence in the Champions League, having conceded 16 goals across six rounds. At the same time, however, they have scored almost twice as many goals as Napoli.
How the bookies view it: The Italian champions will prevail
Bookmakers expectedly gave Napoli the nod, as the Italian champions are levels above their opponents, at least on paper. There is considerable value in the odds, however, as Napoli have been priced at 17/20.
Alternatively, you can back FC Copenhagen at 31/10 or a draw at 5/2.
Recent head-to-head: Napoli have a perfect record against Danish teams
We have nothing to report, as this will be the first-ever meeting between Copenhagen and Napoli. The Partenopei have every right to feel confident, however, as they have won all four previous matches against Danish opposition.
Players to watch: Hojlund is returning home
After a fairly active December, Rasmus Hojlund has had a slow start to the new year and is yet to find the net after five games.
He is, however, returning to his hometown and the club in which he started his career, so he will no doubt do his best. The 22-year-old striker already has nine goals and three assists this season, so despite his poor form, he has what it takes to singlehandedly win matches.
Probable line-ups
FC Copenhagen: Kotarski, Lopez, Pereira, Hatzidiakos, Suzuki, Achouri, Clem, Madsen, Larsson, Claesson, Elyounoussi
Napoli: Milinkovic-Savic, Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Rrahmani, Politano, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola, Vergara, Elmas, Hojlund
Anything else catch the eye?
FC Copenhagen and Napoli are a curious pair because both sides have had very different games lately. Seven of Napoli’s last 10 competitive fixtures featured fewer than three goals, and the main reason for that has been their exceptional defence.
They also have one of the lowest averages of goals per game in the Champions League this season. But Copenhagen have the third-highest average at 4.3 goals per match. UCL fixtures are different, and we believe Napoli will struggle to keep a clean sheet.
Among other things, the Partenopei rarely give their opponents a chance to take corners, so an Under bet here is a great option. All five of their most recent fixtures featured fewer than 11 corners.
Napoli have conceded the fewest corners in Serie A this season at 2.67 per match on average, while taking an average of 5.62 in return.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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