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England welcome Serbia to Wembley on Saturday night in 2026 World Cup qualifying, with Thomas Tuchel’s side aiming to preserve their flawless start.
Tuchel’s appointment started slowly but he has overseen a perfect campaign so far, blending their traditional control with a sharper attacking rhythm. Six wins from six, 18 goals scored and none conceded tell their story. They lead the section for both xPTS and xG ratio, averaging almost 20 shots and over eight on target per game while limiting opponents to just two shots on target across the entire campaign.
Tuchel’s 4-2-3-1 has brought a clear identity with structured possession, controlled pressing, and positional flexibility. England’s attacking patterns are more deliberate but remain relentless in volume.
Harry Kane continues to captain the side, supported by an evolving attacking unit capable of fluid movement between lines. At Wembley, they have been close to untouchable, posting 74% average possession and dominating territory from start to finish.
Serbia, by contrast, come into this fixture with inconsistency defining their campaign. They have won three, drawn one, and lost two, scoring seven and conceding the same number. Their xPTS totals trail far behind England’s, and recent results underline their unpredictability: a 5-0 home loss to England in September, followed by a 1-0 home defeat to Albania. Dragan Stojkovic’s 3-4-1-2 system struggles when pressed, especially against technically superior sides.
Serbia’s midfield control and wing-back width work against weaker opponents but become liabilities against elite opposition. They have failed to score in all three matches against England and Albania, exposing a lack of incision in final-third play.
Tuchel’s England, built on structure and intensity, look well set to continue their perfect run. Victory here would all but secure top spot and underline how quickly the new manager has refined an already dominant side.
How the bookies view it: Three Lions strong favourites
England are overwhelming favourites to continue their perfect qualifying campaign. Thomas Tuchel’s side are priced at 1/4 at BOYLE Sports, which implies a 80% chance of victory. The draw is listed at 4/1 (a 20% probability), while Serbia are long outsiders at 9/1, equating to just a 10% chance of pulling off an upset.
Those odds mirror the gulf in both performance and process with England having won all six qualifiers and that dominance justifies the market confidence and makes a home win feel close to automatic.
In the goals market, over 2.5 goals is priced at 6/10 at BOYLE Sports, giving it an implied probability of roughly 62%, while both teams to score is available at 21/20, which translates to about 49%. Those lines suggest bookmakers expect England to do most of the scoring and Serbia to struggle in front of goal which is a fair reflection given the evidence.
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Head to Head: Hosts perfect record
England’s recent record against Serbia reinforces just how wide the gap has become between the two sides. They have won both meetings across the past year without conceding, claiming a 1–0 victory at Euro 2024 before dismantling Serbia 5–0 in Belgrade during this qualifying campaign.
In the 5-0 win saw England averaged 70% possession, produced an xG of around 4.22 and allowed just three shots without conceded a shot on target. Serbia struggled to escape their own half for long spells, registering an xG of just 0.08 and failing to create a big chance in either game.
Players to watch: Kane in outstanding form
Harry Kane looks an outstanding anytime goal scorer bet heading into England’s meeting with Serbia. He has scored six goals in six qualifiers, finding the net in four different matches and averaging 4.3 shots per game with 54% on target.
His finishing has been consistent rather than streaky, converting from open play, set pieces and penalties, and he remains England’s focal point in every attacking phase under Thomas Tuchel. The side’s dominance in chance creation with close to 20 shots per game and 74% possession in most fixtures which ensures Kane is constantly supplied with volume inside the box.
He is already scored against Serbia in the 5–0 away win, underlining how well he matches up against their back line. With England controlling territory and generating relentless pressure, Kane’s positioning and efficiency make him the likeliest scorer on the pitch and a strong pick to find the net again at 5/6 odds at BOYLE Sports.
Predicted line-ups
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, James, Stones, Guehi, Burn, Rice, Anderson, Saka, Eze, Rashford, Kane
Serbia (3-1-4-2): Petrovic, Erakovic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic, Zivkovic, Lukic, Maksimovic, Kostic, Ilic, Birmancevic, Vlahovic
Anything else catch the eye?
The case for England to win to nil remains overwhelming. Tuchel’s side have taken 18 points from six matches, scoring 18 and conceding none. They have faced only 21 shots and two on target across the entire qualifying campaign which is the best defensive record in Europe. England’s shape in possession limits counter-attacks, while their pressing has suffocated every opponent they have faced.
Tuchel’s structure has improved both control and efficiency. England average 19.7 shots and 8.3 on target per game, converting at a steady rate while allowing next to nothing at the other end. The 5-0 win away in Belgrade highlighted the gulf between these teams: England enjoyed 70% possession and dominated transitions, while Serbia managed only a handful of speculative attempts.
Serbia’s numbers confirm the mismatch. They concede over nine shots and nearly four on target per game, allowing seven goals in six fixtures. When forced to defend for long spells, they lose compactness and struggle to manage runners between the lines. Against sides capable of sustained pressure notably England and Albania they have failed to score and conceded freely.
Tuchel’s England, meanwhile, continue to top the group’s xPTS and xG rankings by clear margins. Every victory has been by at least two goals, and they have kept six consecutive clean sheets. Their back line and midfield screen rarely concede territory, and opponents have managed only one big chance all campaign. With Declan Rice and Elliot Andersen protecting the back four it is a side that stops the opposition.
With Serbia’s attacking output stalling and England’s control absolute, the pattern points one way. Tuchel’s side should dominate possession, restrict Serbia to low-quality efforts, and find enough attacking fluency to secure another straightforward win.
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